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Rankings
#80 of 107 in Division 6
#18 of 27 in Region 21
Strength of schedule #93 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #96 in D6 (-630 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 49-7 H #279 Mineral Ridge (2-0) D6 R21, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 48
08/28 L 40-30 H #492 LaBrae (2-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 6 (38%), perf. rating 63
09/05 A #623 Valley Christian School (0-2) D6 R21, pick: W by 11 (73%)
09/11 A #652 Mathews (1-1) D7 R25, pick: W by 23 (91%)
09/19 A #530 St John School (1-1) D7 R25, pick: L by 10 (27%)
09/25 H #665 Leetonia (1-1) D7 R25, pick: W by 30 (97%)
10/02 A #409 Mogadore (1-1) D7 R25, pick: L by 26 (5%)
10/09 A #659 East Palestine (0-2) D6 R21, pick: W by 26 (96%)
10/16 H #692 Cardinal (0-2) D7 R25, pick: W by 39 (99%)
10/23 A #572 Grand Valley (3-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 3 (42%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
2.36 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R21 playoffs
Playoff chances now
21% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 2.88 ( 0.44- 4.36) 27% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Mineral Ridge (2-0) 16%
Lose: 1.80 ( 0.00- 3.76) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 8W: 4.13 ( 3.82- 4.36) 100% in, 22% home, proj. #10 (#7-#12), United (1-1) 23%
(15%) 7W: 3.55 ( 3.20- 3.79) 79% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Mineral Ridge (2-0) 18%
(25%) 6W: 2.94 ( 2.70- 3.36) 17% in, proj. out (#10-out), Mineral Ridge (2-0) 19%
(29%) 5W: 2.36 ( 2.10- 2.68) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(17%) 4W: 1.81 ( 1.62- 2.17) out, proj. out
( 7%) 3W: 1.34 ( 1.17- 1.59) out, proj. out
( 2%) 2W: 0.84 ( 0.75- 1.08) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 4%) WWWWWWWW: 4.13 ( 3.83- 4.36) 100% in, 22% home, proj. #10 (#7-#12), United (1-1) 23%
(12%) WWWWLWWW: 3.56 ( 3.33- 3.75) 82% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Mineral Ridge (2-0) 18%
(15%) WWLWLWWW: 2.95 ( 2.73- 3.14) 22% in, proj. out (#10-out), Mineral Ridge (2-0) 19%
( 6%) WWWWLWWL: 2.92 ( 2.69- 3.10) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), Wickliffe (2-0) 25%
( 4%) LWLWLWWW: 2.44 ( 2.29- 2.62) out
(19%) WWLWLWWL: 2.31 ( 2.10- 2.52) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Smithville (2-0) 100%
( 9%) LWLWLWWL: 1.80 ( 1.62- 1.99) out
( 2%) LWLWLLWL: 1.33 ( 1.23- 1.49) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (0-2, 67.1, #575, D6 #80), 27% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 73.4, #539, D6 #72), 50% (bubble if 7-3), 15% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 91.6, #432, D6 #50), 85% (bubble if 6-4), 65% home (maybe if 7-3), 28% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 8-2
Last season 86.0