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Rankings
#56 of 107 in Division 6
#16 of 27 in Region 23
Strength of schedule #103 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #54 in D6 (-200 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 40-0 A #661 Miami Valley Christian (1-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 27 (89%), perf. rating 103
08/29 W 26-20 H #583 Madison-Plains (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 26 (90%), perf. rating 72
09/05 L 21-7 H #431 Mount Gilead (4-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 7 (35%), perf. rating 68
09/12 W 38-0 A #650 Bishop Rosecrans (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 19 (87%), perf. rating 106
09/19 A #587 Miller (3-1) D7 R27, pick: W by 14 (81%)
09/26 H #693 Millersport (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 41 (99%)
10/03 A #628 Berne Union (3-1) D6 R23, pick: W by 22 (92%)
10/10 A #234 Grandview Heights (4-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/17 H #652 Fisher Catholic (3-1) D7 R27, pick: W by 30 (98%)
10/24 H #647 Fairfield Christian (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 29 (97%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
15.88 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#6 seed in R23 playoffs
Playoff chances now
92% (bubble if 6-4), 62% home (likely needs 8-2), 5% bye (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.83 ( 6.80-22.49) 97% in, 74% home, 7% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), Toronto (4-0) 11%
Lose: 12.65 ( 4.63-19.21) 69% in, 11% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#1-out), Ridgewood (4-0) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 9W: 20.77 (18.45-22.49) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(66%) 8W: 15.88 (14.01-20.63) 99% in, 84% home, 5% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), Toronto (4-0) 11%
(24%) 7W: 13.11 (11.24-16.89) 90% in, 15% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Ridgewood (4-0) 12%
( 6%) 6W: 10.43 ( 8.66-13.16) 22% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Northmor (2-2) 15%
( 1%) 5W: 8.09 ( 5.79-10.13) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 20.77 (18.45-22.49) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(66%) WWWLWW: 15.88 (14.01-18.25) 99% in, 84% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), Toronto (4-0) 11%
( 3%) WWWLWL: 13.86 (12.45-15.88) 97% in, 26% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Northmor (2-2) 13%
( 2%) WWWLLW: 13.31 (11.54-15.38) 93% in, 21% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Ridgewood (4-0) 13%
( 6%) WWLLWW: 13.00 (11.24-15.38) 78% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Ridgewood (4-0) 16%
(13%) LWWLWW: 13.00 (11.44-15.33) 92% in, 14% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Ridgewood (4-0) 12%
( 1%) LWWLWL: 10.94 ( 9.57-12.55) 41% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Ridgewood (4-0) 22%
( 3%) LWLLWW: 10.08 ( 8.66-12.15) 10% in, proj. out (#10-out), Colonel Crawford (4-0) 14%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 80.1, #491, D6 #56), 92% (bubble if 6-4), 62% home (likely needs 8-2), 5% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 74.1, #538, D6 #65), 74% (bubble if 6-4), 37% home (likely needs 8-2), 5% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #11 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 76.9, #532, D6 #65), 76% (bubble if 7-3), 48% home (maybe if 8-2), 14% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 81.0, #504, D6 #60), 78% (bubble if 6-4), 46% home (maybe if 8-2), 11% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 74.6, #539, D6 #66), 67% (bubble if 6-4), 43% home (maybe if 8-2), 18% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Last season 80.3