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Rankings
#54 of 103 in Division 7
#12 of 25 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #34 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #47 in D7 (-103 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 40-2 H #661 Ridgedale (0-3) D7 R28, pick: L by 15 (25%), perf. rating 90
08/28 L 51-14 A #460 Pleasant (1-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 20 (16%), perf. rating 33
09/04 W 48-0 H #683 Catholic Cent. (Sprfd.) (0-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 26 (93%), perf. rating 84
09/11 A #495 Greenon (2-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 20 (12%)
09/18 H #573 Cedarville (1-2) D7 R28, pick: L by 2 (45%)
09/25 A #320 Mechanicsburg (2-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 35 (1%)
10/02 A #305 West Jefferson (2-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 36 (1%)
10/09 H #410 West Liberty-Salem (1-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 26 (4%)
10/16 A #517 Fairbanks (0-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 17 (13%)
10/23 H #534 Northeastern (0-3) D6 R24, pick: L by 11 (23%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
2.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
26% (bubble if 4-6), 5% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.85 ( 2.45-17.15) 80% in, 25% home, 2% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-2) 14%
Lose: 2.55 ( 0.70-14.80) 19% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-2) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 9.95 ( 8.05-13.50) 100% in, 92% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#11), Tri-County North (1-2) 13%
( 4%) 6W: 7.52 ( 5.10-11.80) 99% in, 52% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-2) 14%
(10%) 5W: 5.50 ( 3.10-10.25) 86% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-2) 17%
(20%) 4W: 4.00 ( 1.95- 8.15) 46% in, 2% home, proj. out (#5-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-2) 16%
(31%) 3W: 2.70 ( 1.10- 6.40) 10% in, proj. out (#9-out), New Bremen (2-1) 18%
(34%) 2W: 1.50 ( 0.70- 3.65) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWLLWWW: 9.85 ( 8.10-12.15) 100% in, 92% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#11), Tri-County North (1-2) 14%
( 4%) LWLLLWW: 4.60 ( 3.10- 7.65) 72% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-2) 18%
( 4%) LWLLLWL: 3.70 ( 2.30- 6.30) 35% in, proj. out (#9-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-2) 19%
( 8%) LWLLLLW: 3.65 ( 2.25- 6.55) 36% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Riverside (DeGraff) (2-1) 19%
(15%) LWLLLLL: 2.90 ( 1.85- 5.65) 11% in, proj. out (#9-out), New Bremen (2-1) 21%
( 8%) LLLLLLW: 2.20 ( 1.10- 4.50) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Riverside (DeGraff) (2-1) 32%
( 4%) LLLLLWL: 2.20 ( 1.15- 4.25) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out), Fort Loramie (2-1) 36%
(34%) LLLLLLL: 1.50 ( 0.70- 3.65) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), New Bremen (2-1) 33%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 62.5, #587, D7 #54), 26% (bubble if 4-6), 5% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 57.5, #610, D7 #59), 16% (bubble if 4-6), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (1-0, 65.5, #582, D7 #52), 30% (bubble if 4-6), 11% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 41.3, #660, D7 #82), 4% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Last season 38.8