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Rankings
#13 of 107 in Division 6
#2 of 27 in Region 23
Strength of schedule #45 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #6 in D6 (+352 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 42-7 N #554 Fairbanks (1-3) D6 R23, pick: W by 9 (66%), perf. rating 124
08/29 W 28-14 H #324 Fairfield Union (1-3) D4 R15, pick: W by 20 (84%), perf. rating 125
09/05 W 42-18 H #499 East Knox (1-3) D6 R23, pick: W by 35 (97%), perf. rating 113
09/12 W 24-21 A #237 Mohawk (3-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 4 (41%), perf. rating 124
09/19 A #579 Buckeye Central (3-1) D7 R25, pick: W by 37 (99%)
09/26 H #649 Bucyrus (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 47 (99%)
10/03 H #314 Seneca East (3-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/10 A #262 Carey (1-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/17 A #447 Upper Sandusky (1-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/24 H #548 Wynford (1-3) D6 R23, pick: W by 36 (99%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
17.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#3 seed in R23 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 90% home (maybe if 8-2), 55% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 18.15 ( 9.35-23.60) 99% in, 91% home, 56% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 56%
Lose: 15.30 ( 8.60-20.70) 87% in, 57% home, 22% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(42%) 10W: 20.00 (17.65-23.60) 100% home, 93% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 93%
(41%) 9W: 17.35 (13.80-20.95) 99% in, 98% home, 39% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 39%
(15%) 8W: 14.75 (12.10-18.05) 99% in, 56% home, 3% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 12%
( 3%) 7W: 12.80 (10.75-15.80) 84% in, 16% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 14%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(42%) WWWWWW: 20.00 (17.65-23.60) 100% home, 93% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 93%
( 2%) WWWWLW: 17.75 (15.00-20.95) 100% in, 99% home, 49% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 49%
(29%) WWWLWW: 17.45 (14.80-20.75) 100% in, 99% home, 42% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#11), bye 42%
( 9%) WWLWWW: 16.80 (13.80-19.95) 99% in, 96% home, 28% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 28%
( 2%) WWWLLW: 15.12 (13.40-17.85) 99% in, 70% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#3-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 11%
(10%) WWLLWW: 14.60 (12.10-17.70) 99% in, 49% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 13%
( 2%) WWLLLW: 12.55 (10.75-15.05) 78% in, 10% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 13%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 118.4, #224, D6 #13), likely in, 90% home (maybe if 8-2), 55% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 3 (3-0, 119.0, #225, D6 #12), 92% (bubble if 7-3), 70% home (maybe if 8-2), 35% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 118.6, #231, D6 #15), 87% (bubble if 7-3), 58% home (maybe if 8-2), 24% bye (likely needs 10-0), proj. #6 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 118.9, #220, D6 #12), 88% (bubble if 6-4), 67% home (maybe if 8-2), 33% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 105.7, #311, D6 #19), 62% (bubble if 6-4), 45% home (maybe if 7-3), 24% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 7-3
Last season 104.5