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Rankings
#20 of 107 in Division 6
#4 of 26 in Region 23
Strength of schedule #24 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #58 in D6 (-55 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 W 45-21 H #496 Fairbanks (0-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 36 (95%), perf. rating 113
08/28 L 20-14 A #236 Fairfield Union (1-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 9 (67%), perf. rating 110
09/04 H #99 Hopewell-Loudon (2-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 20 (13%)
09/11 H #475 Calvert (0-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 30 (96%)
09/18 A #209 Carey (0-2) D6 R22, pick: L by 7 (33%)
09/25 H #490 Lucas (1-1) D7 R27, pick: W by 31 (98%)
10/02 A #590 Wynford (1-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 37 (99%)
10/09 H #335 Mohawk (1-1) D7 R26, pick: W by 15 (84%)
10/16 A #249 Seneca East (2-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/23 A #629 Bucyrus (1-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 42 (99%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
3.76 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#10 seed in R23 playoffs
Playoff chances now
60% (bubble if 6-4), 30% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.51 ( 2.10- 5.40) 95% in, 78% home, 41% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 44%
Lose: 3.30 ( 0.92- 4.72) 56% in, 23% home, 2% bye, proj. #12 (#2-out), Elgin (2-0) 9%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 9W: 5.11 ( 4.80- 5.40) 100% home, 87% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 87%
(19%) 8W: 4.42 ( 4.09- 4.80) 100% in, 93% home, 15% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 15%
(30%) 7W: 3.76 ( 3.46- 4.18) 94% in, 25% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Elgin (2-0) 11%
(27%) 6W: 3.12 ( 2.82- 3.62) 31% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Newcomerstown (1-1) 11%
(15%) 5W: 2.52 ( 2.25- 2.96) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 4%) 4W: 1.99 ( 1.79- 2.28) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) WWWWWWWW: 5.11 ( 4.80- 5.39) 100% home, 87% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 87%
( 3%) WWLWWWWW: 4.46 ( 4.25- 4.79) 100% in, 93% home, 18% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 18%
(15%) LWWWWWWW: 4.41 ( 4.09- 4.72) 100% in, 94% home, 14% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 14%
(17%) LWLWWWWW: 3.77 ( 3.46- 4.18) 94% in, 28% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Elgin (2-0) 9%
( 8%) LWWWWWLW: 3.71 ( 3.46- 4.04) 92% in, 16% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Waterford (2-0) 12%
( 3%) LWLWWLWW: 3.15 ( 2.98- 3.52) 37% in, proj. out (#9-out), Caldwell (1-1) 16%
(20%) LWLWWWLW: 3.10 ( 2.81- 3.44) 29% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Newcomerstown (1-1) 12%
(11%) LWLWWLLW: 2.49 ( 2.25- 2.85) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Monroe Central (2-1) 50%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 116.4, #245, D6 #20), 64% (bubble if 6-4), 35% home (maybe if 7-3), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 121.7, #204, D6 #15), 78% (bubble if 6-4), 56% home (maybe if 7-3), 29% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 124.7, #176, D6 #11), 81% (bubble if 6-4), 63% home (maybe if 7-3), 34% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 8-2
Last season 132.2