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Rankings
#6 of 72 in Division 1
#2 of 18 in Region 3
Strength of schedule #32 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #8 in D1 (+410 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 31-6 H #86 Anthony Wayne (3-1) D2 R6, pick: W by 9 (66%), perf. rating 179
08/29 W 16-10 A #72 Olentangy Berlin (0-4) D1 R3, pick: W by 19 (83%), perf. rating 158
09/05 W 50-0 H #322 Reynoldsburg (0-4) D1 R3, pick: W by 43 (99%), perf. rating 167
09/12 W 42-7 A #104 New Albany (1-3) D2 R7, pick: W by 18 (86%), perf. rating 194
09/19 H #504 Central Crossing (0-4) D1 R3, pick: W by 49 (99%)
09/26 H #114 Hilliard Bradley (3-1) D1 R2, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/03 A #61 Olentangy Liberty (1-3) D1 R3, pick: W by 20 (90%)
10/10 H #10 Olentangy Orange (4-0) D1 R3, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/17 A #161 Dublin Coffman (1-3) D1 R2, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/24 H #53 Hilliard Davidson (3-1) D1 R2, pick: W by 22 (93%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
26.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#5 seed in R3 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 74% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 27.15 (11.75-37.55) 100% in, 99% home, 74% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#11), bye 74%
Lose: 24.50 (14.90-33.60) 100% in, 98% home, 42% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#9), bye 42%
Based on eventual number of wins
(32%) 10W: 33.00 (27.85-37.55) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(46%) 9W: 26.50 (20.10-34.25) 100% home, 80% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 80%
(16%) 8W: 22.65 (17.45-29.15) 100% in, 99% home, 25% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 25%
( 4%) 7W: 19.45 (14.95-26.65) 100% in, 97% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Westerville Central (2-2) 20%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(32%) WWWWWW: 33.00 (27.85-37.55) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 2%) WWLWWW: 29.17 (25.80-32.35) 100% home, 93% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 93%
( 2%) WWWWWL: 27.95 (24.70-31.20) 100% home, 93% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 93%
(41%) WWWLWW: 26.50 (20.10-30.40) 100% home, 78% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 78%
( 1%) WWWLLW: 24.55 (20.05-29.15) 100% home, 44% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#7), bye 44%
( 7%) WWLLWW: 23.20 (19.30-27.15) 100% in, 99% home, 20% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 20%
( 6%) WWWLWL: 22.05 (18.15-26.60) 100% home, 23% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), bye 23%
( 2%) WWLLWL: 18.83 (15.05-22.10) 100% in, 96% home, 2% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#9), Westerville Central (2-2) 22%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 170.8, #15, D1 #6), appears locked in and likely home, 74% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 9-1
Week 3 (3-0, 164.6, #26, D1 #11), likely in, 96% home (maybe if 5-5), 56% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 167.8, #21, D1 #8), appears locked in, 97% home (maybe if 5-5), 63% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 172.2, #15, D1 #6), likely in, 93% home (maybe if 6-4), 70% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 163.6, #24, D1 #10), 90% (bubble if 4-6), 73% home (maybe if 6-4), 46% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 7-3
Last season 164.8