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Rankings
#4 of 102 in Division 4
#1 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #13 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #13 in D4 (+172 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 17-14 H #60 New Albany (5-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 19 (81%), perf. rating 142
08/28 W 37-0 A Arcadia Hamilton Hts. IN (4-3) D3
09/04 W 37-7 A #402 Franklin Heights (0-7) D2 R8, pick: W by 38 (98%), perf. rating 141
09/11 W 29-7 H #234 Indian Lake (4-3) D5 R18, pick: W by 26 (94%), perf. rating 149
09/18 L 10-7 A #142 Graham Local (6-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 21 (91%), perf. rating 129
09/25 W 59-18 H #151 Urbana (5-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 10 (74%), perf. rating 189
10/02 W 56-7 H #438 Bellefontaine (1-6) D3 R12, pick: W by 43 (99%), perf. rating 149
10/09 A #106 Jonathan Alder (6-1) D3 R11, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/16 H #522 Tecumseh (1-6) D3 R12, pick: W by 48 (99%)
10/23 A #204 Kenton Ridge (6-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 24 (94%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
23.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#4 seed in R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 66% bye (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 23.10 (16.80-25.65) 100% in, 99% home, 92% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#9), bye 92%
Lose: 18.50 (12.85-21.10) 100% in, 99% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#10), New Richmond (3-4) 26%
Based on eventual number of wins
(68%) 8W: 23.45 (20.95-25.65) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
(29%) 7W: 18.90 (16.40-24.20) 100% in, 99% home, 2% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), New Richmond (3-4) 27%
( 3%) 6W: 14.90 (13.25-19.45) 100% in, 88% home, proj. #7 (#5-#10), Wilmington (3-4) 28%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(68%) WWW: 23.45 (20.95-25.65) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
( 3%) WWL: 19.35 (16.80-21.45) 100% in, 99% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#9), Dunbar (3-3) 25%
(25%) LWW: 18.90 (16.40-21.10) 100% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#8), New Richmond (3-4) 29%
( 3%) LWL: 14.85 (13.25-16.90) 100% in, 87% home, proj. #8 (#6-#10), Wilmington (3-4) 30%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (5-2, 149.8, #56, D4 #4), appears locked in and likely home, 66% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 6 (4-2, 150.1, #59, D4 #4), appears locked in, 98% home (maybe if 6-4), 65% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 5 (3-2, 140.3, #91, D4 #7), likely in, 90% home (maybe if 6-4), 32% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 4 (3-1, 146.2, #69, D4 #5), likely in, 97% home (maybe if 6-4), 65% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 141.2, #87, D4 #10), 97% (bubble if 5-5), 88% home (maybe if 6-4), 58% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 142.1, #84, D4 #8), 95% (bubble if 5-5), 86% home (maybe if 6-4), 57% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 1 (0-1, 144.1, #76, D4 #5), 94% (bubble if 4-6), 85% home (maybe if 6-4), 61% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 152.1, #51, D4 #4), 97% (bubble if 4-6), 92% home (maybe if 6-4), 78% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 9-1
Last season 151.2