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Rankings
#5 of 101 in Division 4
#1 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #15 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #21 in D4 (+120 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 17-14 H #51 New Albany (3-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 19 (81%), perf. rating 146
08/28 W 37-0 A Arcadia Hamilton Hts. IN (1-3) D3
09/04 W 37-7 A #460 Franklin Heights (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 38 (98%), perf. rating 132
09/11 W 29-7 H #259 Indian Lake (2-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 26 (94%), perf. rating 146
09/18 A #191 Graham Local (3-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 21 (91%)
09/25 H #139 Urbana (3-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 17 (86%)
10/02 H #410 Bellefontaine (1-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 38 (99%)
10/09 A #83 Jonathan Alder (4-0) D3 R11, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/16 H #537 Tecumseh (1-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 48 (99%)
10/23 A #229 Kenton Ridge (3-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 24 (94%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
20.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#4 seed in R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 97% home (maybe if 6-4), 65% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 22.15 ( 8.75-28.90) 99% in, 98% home, 69% bye, proj. #3 (#1-out), bye 69%
Lose: 16.35 ( 6.60-24.55) 98% in, 79% home, 23% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 24%
Based on eventual number of wins
(43%) 9W: 24.95 (21.95-28.90) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(37%) 8W: 20.30 (17.30-26.95) 100% home, 58% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 58%
(15%) 7W: 16.50 (13.75-22.30) 100% in, 95% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#10), Dunbar (1-2) 14%
( 4%) 6W: 13.00 (10.45-17.90) 99% in, 53% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), Clinton-Massie (1-3) 15%
( 1%) 5W: 9.45 ( 7.20-12.75) 82% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Oakwood (4-0) 16%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(43%) WWWWWW: 24.95 (21.95-28.90) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 2%) LWWWWW: 21.40 (19.25-24.55) 100% home, 85% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 85%
( 4%) WLWWWW: 21.15 (18.55-24.75) 100% home, 59% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 59%
(28%) WWWLWW: 19.95 (17.30-24.05) 100% home, 53% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 53%
( 7%) WLWLWW: 16.50 (14.05-20.30) 100% in, 94% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Dunbar (1-2) 16%
( 3%) LWWLWW: 16.35 (14.15-19.55) 100% in, 97% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Dunbar (1-2) 15%
( 3%) WWWLWL: 15.93 (13.75-19.45) 100% in, 93% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Dunbar (1-2) 13%
( 1%) LLWLWL: 9.35 ( 7.20-11.95) 80% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Oakwood (4-0) 16%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 146.2, #69, D4 #5), likely in, 97% home (maybe if 6-4), 65% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 141.2, #87, D4 #10), 97% (bubble if 5-5), 88% home (maybe if 6-4), 58% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 142.1, #84, D4 #8), 95% (bubble if 5-5), 86% home (maybe if 6-4), 57% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 1 (0-1, 144.1, #76, D4 #5), 94% (bubble if 4-6), 85% home (maybe if 6-4), 61% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 152.1, #51, D4 #4), 97% (bubble if 4-6), 92% home (maybe if 6-4), 78% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 9-1
Last season 151.2