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Rankings
#39 of 72 in Division 1
#12 of 18 in Region 2
Strength of schedule #33 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #35 in D1 (-60 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 17-10 H #130 Groveport Madison (1-3) D1 R3, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 144
08/29 L 21-7 A #162 Hilliard Darby (2-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 22 (87%), perf. rating 110
09/05 W 33-21 A #198 Grove City (2-2) D1 R3, pick: L by 20 (13%), perf. rating 143
09/12 W 42-14 A #230 Marysville (2-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 8 (68%), perf. rating 162
09/19 H #104 New Albany (1-3) D2 R7, pick: W by 1 (52%)
09/26 A #15 Upper Arlington (4-0) D1 R3, pick: L by 29 (3%)
10/03 H #53 Hilliard Davidson (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/10 H #61 Olentangy Liberty (1-3) D1 R3, pick: L by 8 (30%)
10/17 A #10 Olentangy Orange (4-0) D1 R3, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/24 H #161 Dublin Coffman (1-3) D1 R2, pick: W by 12 (79%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
13.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#11 seed in R2 playoffs
Playoff chances now
87% (bubble if 3-7), 40% home (maybe if 5-5), 11% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.90 ( 9.45-33.75) 98% in, 60% home, 19% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), bye 19%
Lose: 10.75 ( 6.25-30.60) 75% in, 17% home, 2% bye, proj. #11 (#1-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 8W: 26.70 (23.40-30.60) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(11%) 7W: 20.90 (17.65-28.55) 100% home, 60% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 60%
(21%) 6W: 17.10 (12.65-23.60) 99% in, 83% home, 11% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 13%
(27%) 5W: 13.90 (10.05-20.45) 98% in, 33% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 14%
(27%) 4W: 11.30 ( 7.50-17.10) 80% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 14%
(13%) 3W: 9.40 ( 6.25-13.30) 47% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Dublin Jerome (3-1) 13%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 9%) WLWWLW: 20.85 (17.65-24.75) 100% home, 56% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 56%
( 7%) WLWLLW: 17.65 (13.85-21.50) 100% in, 96% home, 14% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 16%
( 9%) WLLWLW: 15.90 (12.65-22.30) 99% in, 65% home, 3% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 10%
(14%) WLLLLW: 13.85 (10.10-17.80) 98% in, 24% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 14%
( 5%) LLLWLW: 13.25 (10.05-17.85) 96% in, 15% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 17%
( 6%) WLLLLL: 12.60 ( 9.45-15.85) 91% in, 7% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 16%
(17%) LLLLLW: 10.70 ( 7.50-15.80) 75% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 13%
(13%) LLLLLL: 9.40 ( 6.25-13.30) 47% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Dublin Jerome (3-1) 13%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 138.9, #114, D1 #39), 87% (bubble if 3-7), 40% home (maybe if 5-5), 11% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 136.8, #120, D1 #41), 82% (bubble if 3-7), 36% home (maybe if 5-5), 11% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 129.0, #162, D1 #46), 45% (bubble if 3-7), 16% home (maybe if 5-5), 4% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (1-0, 142.9, #85, D1 #33), 87% (bubble if 3-7), 59% home (maybe if 5-5), 29% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 138.7, #109, D1 #38), 64% (bubble if 3-7), 40% home (maybe if 5-5), 19% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 130.7