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Rankings
#28 of 72 in Division 1
#8 of 18 in Region 3
Strength of schedule #24 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #56 in D1 (-315 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 14-13 A #77 DeSales (Columbus) (3-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 12 (71%), perf. rating 146
08/29 L 16-10 H #15 Upper Arlington (4-0) D1 R3, pick: L by 19 (17%), perf. rating 160
09/05 L 30-21 A #104 New Albany (1-3) D2 R7, pick: W by 18 (84%), perf. rating 129
09/12 L 10-7 A #61 Olentangy Liberty (1-3) D1 R3, pick: L by 3 (43%), perf. rating 147
09/19 H #10 Olentangy Orange (4-0) D1 R3, pick: L by 26 (5%)
09/26 H #162 Hilliard Darby (2-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/03 A #264 Thomas Worthington (1-3) D1 R3, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/10 H #106 Dublin Jerome (3-1) D1 R2, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/17 H #230 Marysville (2-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/24 A #41 Olentangy (3-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 12 (21%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
12.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#10 seed in R3 playoffs
Playoff chances now
76% (bubble if 3-7), 27% home (likely needs 5-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 18.65 ( 6.35-25.75) 99% in, 82% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#3-out), Westerville Central (2-2) 16%
Lose: 12.10 ( 0.00-19.25) 74% in, 24% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 6W: 23.80 (21.20-25.75) 100% home, 20% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#7), bye 20%
(19%) 5W: 17.95 (15.35-21.85) 100% in, 88% home, proj. #7 (#5-#11), Grove City (2-2) 16%
(43%) 4W: 12.10 (11.45-17.30) 99% in, 17% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 20%
(26%) 3W: 7.60 ( 6.95-13.60) 45% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Olentangy (3-1) 19%
( 8%) 2W: 4.40 ( 3.75- 9.00) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 2%) 1W: 1.80 ( 1.30- 5.85) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 23.80 (21.20-25.75) 100% home, 20% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#7), bye 20%
(17%) LWWWWW: 17.95 (16.65-19.25) 100% in, 88% home, proj. #7 (#5-#11), Grove City (2-2) 16%
( 2%) WWWWWL: 17.95 (15.35-19.90) 100% in, 86% home, proj. #7 (#6-#10), Groveport Madison (1-3) 19%
( 3%) LWWLWW: 12.80 (11.50-14.75) 99% in, 23% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 18%
(37%) LWWWWL: 12.10 (11.45-14.70) 99% in, 15% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 20%
( 5%) LLWWWL: 8.25 ( 7.60-10.20) 49% in, proj. out (#9-out), Pickerington North (3-1) 23%
(17%) LWWLWL: 7.60 ( 6.95-10.20) 35% in, proj. out (#9-out), Olentangy (3-1) 26%
( 4%) LLWLWL: 3.75 ( 3.75- 5.70) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 146.6, #72, D1 #28), 76% (bubble if 3-7), 27% home (likely needs 5-5), proj. #10 at 4-6
Week 3 (0-3, 147.3, #74, D1 #30), 73% (bubble if 3-7), 30% home (maybe if 5-5), 2% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 153.4, #50, D1 #19), 88% (bubble if 3-7), 48% home (maybe if 5-5), 11% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 151.0, #59, D1 #26), 80% (bubble if 4-6), 43% home (maybe if 6-4), 14% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 155.7, #35, D1 #15), 86% (bubble if 4-6), 63% home (maybe if 6-4), 31% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Last season 155.8