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Rankings
#67 of 102 in Division 3
#15 of 25 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #15 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #69 in D3 (-277 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 35-7 A #119 Ontario (7-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 4 (57%), perf. rating 96
08/28 L 48-6 H #36 Shelby (8-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 30 (7%), perf. rating 94
09/04 L 17-7 A #134 Clear Fork (6-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 18 (16%), perf. rating 119
09/11 L 43-7 H #81 Dover (6-2) D3 R11, pick: L by 2 (45%), perf. rating 86
09/18 W 44-30 H #297 Wooster (3-5) D2 R7, pick: W by 4 (60%), perf. rating 129
09/25 L 32-27 A #460 Mansfield Senior (1-7) D3 R10, pick: W by 27 (96%), perf. rating 81
10/02 L 35-0 H #122 West Holmes (6-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 20 (10%), perf. rating 80
10/09 L 63-35 A #201 New Philadelphia (4-4) D3 R11, pick: L by 19 (11%), perf. rating 84
10/16 H #317 Madison (Mansfield) (3-5) D3 R10, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/23 A #308 Ashland (4-4) D2 R7, pick: L by 10 (26%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
5.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.60 ( 4.45- 8.85) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Lose: 2.85 ( 2.25- 6.10) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
(15%) 3W: 8.35 ( 7.80- 8.85) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(38%) 2W: 5.60 ( 4.45- 6.10) out, proj. out
(46%) 1W: 2.85 ( 2.25- 3.35) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(15%) WW: 8.35 ( 7.80- 8.85) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out), Holy Name (4-3) 38%
(13%) LW: 5.60 ( 5.60- 6.10) out
(25%) WL: 5.05 ( 4.45- 6.10) out
(46%) LL: 2.85 ( 2.25- 3.35) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (1-6, 104.0, #341, D3 #65), 8% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 6 (1-5, 106.6, #316, D3 #63), 19% (bubble if 3-7), 4% home (likely needs 5-5), proj. out at 2-8
Week 5 (1-4, 112.6, #273, D3 #48), 24% (bubble if 4-6), 5% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 3-7
Week 4 (0-4, 108.8, #304, D3 #58), 19% (bubble if 4-6), 4% home (likely needs 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (0-3, 122.5, #201, D3 #36), 46% (bubble if 5-5), 25% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 118.7, #231, D3 #40), 44% (bubble if 4-6), 25% home (maybe if 5-5), 8% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 123.2, #197, D3 #35), 59% (bubble if 4-6), 36% home (maybe if 5-5), 12% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 138.5, #103, D3 #13), 84% (bubble if 4-6), 70% home (maybe if 6-4), 45% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 7-3
Last season 143.9