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Rankings
#78 of 101 in Division 4
#20 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #94 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #87 in D4 (-790 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 18-13 H #422 St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (2-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 81
08/28 L 41-6 H #276 Kenton Ridge (1-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 16 (21%), perf. rating 58
09/04 H #349 Brookville (1-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 21 (12%)
09/11 H #531 Lehman Catholic (0-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 6 (64%)
09/18 H #524 Milton-Union (0-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 5 (62%)
09/25 A #253 Miami East (2-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/02 H #389 Riverside (DeGraff) (1-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 15 (17%)
10/09 H #381 Covington (1-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 17 (13%)
10/16 A #549 Bethel (0-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/23 A #574 Troy Christian (2-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 9 (72%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
1.55 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
6% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 2.78 ( 0.55- 4.91) 27% in, 5% home, proj. out (#6-out), Wilmington (1-1) 14%
Lose: 1.52 ( 0.00- 4.31) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Valley View (1-1) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 4.04 ( 3.81- 4.31) 97% in, 17% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Wilmington (1-1) 14%
( 7%) 6W: 3.37 ( 3.06- 3.85) 45% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Valley View (1-1) 17%
(14%) 5W: 2.74 ( 2.48- 3.26) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(19%) 4W: 2.12 ( 1.90- 2.50) out, proj. out
(20%) 3W: 1.55 ( 1.30- 1.97) out, proj. out
(17%) 2W: 1.01 ( 0.83- 1.39) out, proj. out
(13%) 1W: 0.49 ( 0.35- 0.84) out, proj. out
( 8%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) LWWLWWWW: 3.37 ( 3.27- 3.58) 45% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Valley View (1-1) 14%
( 4%) LWWLLWWW: 2.74 ( 2.67- 2.93) 2% in, proj. out (#12-out), Oakwood (2-0) 67%
( 5%) LWWLWLWW: 2.72 ( 2.63- 2.89) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Kenton Ridge (1-1) 33%
( 8%) LWWLLLWW: 2.11 ( 2.05- 2.32) out
( 3%) LLWLLLWW: 1.65 ( 1.60- 1.79) out
( 4%) LWWLLLLW: 1.45 ( 1.38- 1.74) out
( 4%) LWLLLLLL: 0.39 ( 0.35- 0.57) out
( 8%) LLLLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (0-2, 78.5, #505, D4 #78), 8% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 85.7, #457, D4 #73), 29% (bubble if 6-4), 12% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 88.8, #446, D4 #70), 39% (bubble if 6-4), 19% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 84.7