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Rankings
#68 of 106 in Division 5
#18 of 25 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #59 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #59 in D5 (-207 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/29 L 34-0 A #244 Kenton Ridge (3-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 68
09/05 L 42-15 A #190 Brookville (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 32 (4%), perf. rating 86
09/11 L 34-16 A #245 Lehman Catholic (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 31 (3%), perf. rating 92
09/19 A #483 Milton-Union (0-4) D5 R20, pick: W by 1 (52%)
09/26 H #373 Miami East (3-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 13 (20%)
10/03 A #450 Riverside (DeGraff) (2-2) D7 R28, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/10 A #513 Covington (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/17 H #550 Bethel (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 15 (84%)
10/24 H #658 Troy Christian (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 34 (99%)
Regular season projections
4-5 record
5.94 Harbin points (divisor 90)
out of R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
14% (bubble if 5-4), 3% home (maybe if 6-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.78 ( 0.50-13.44) 23% in, 6% home, proj. out (#5-out), Miami East (3-1) 16%
Lose: 3.17 ( 0.00-11.33) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 8%) 6W: 11.83 (11.39-13.44) 98% in, 36% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 14%
(18%) 5W: 8.39 ( 7.61-11.44) 30% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Miami East (3-1) 18%
(24%) 4W: 5.94 ( 4.89-10.39) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(24%) 3W: 3.72 ( 2.72- 7.06) out, proj. out
(18%) 2W: 1.83 ( 1.33- 5.11) out, proj. out
( 7%) 1W: 0.44 ( 0.44- 3.83) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 8%) WWWWWW: 11.83 (11.39-13.44) 98% in, 36% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 14%
(11%) WLWWWW: 8.00 ( 7.61- 9.44) 11% in, proj. out (#10-out), Miami East (3-1) 33%
( 6%) LLWWWW: 6.06 ( 5.72- 7.72) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Carlisle (3-1) 33%
( 9%) WLLWWW: 5.22 ( 5.06- 6.89) out
( 6%) WLLLWW: 3.67 ( 3.28- 5.17) out
( 9%) LLLWWW: 3.28 ( 3.17- 5.17) out
(10%) LLLLWW: 1.83 ( 1.83- 3.72) out
( 7%) LLLLLW: 0.44 ( 0.44- 1.33) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-3, 84.5, #460, D5 #68), 14% (bubble if 5-4), 3% home (maybe if 6-3), proj. out at 4-5
Week 3 (0-2, 81.9, #490, D5 #70), 10% (bubble if 5-4), 2% home (maybe if 6-3), proj. out at 3-6
Week 2 (0-1, 79.5, #506, D5 #75), 17% (bubble if 5-4), 5% home (maybe if 6-3), proj. out at 3-6
Week 1 (0-0, 97.1, #381, D5 #47), 49% (bubble if 5-4), 31% home (maybe if 6-3), 12% bye (maybe if 8-1), proj. #12 at 5-4
Week 0 (0-0, 97.1, #384, D5 #48), 60% (bubble if 6-4), 38% home (maybe if 7-3), 16% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 6-4
Last season 103.2