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Rankings
#42 of 104 in Division 7
#8 of 26 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #13 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #67 in D7 (-355 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 L 40-6 A #321 St Johns (1-1) D7 R26, pick: W by 5 (59%), perf. rating 57
08/28 L 14-8 A #542 Southeastern Local (2-0) D7 R28, pick: W by 9 (67%), perf. rating 66
09/04 H #235 Fort Loramie (1-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 33 (3%)
09/11 A #505 Northridge (0-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 6 (36%)
09/19 H #574 Troy Christian (2-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 9 (71%)
09/25 A #524 Milton-Union (0-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/02 H #253 Miami East (2-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/10 H #549 Bethel (0-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/16 A #389 Riverside (DeGraff) (1-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 22 (7%)
10/23 H #381 Covington (1-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 20 (9%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
1.09 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
36% (bubble if 3-7), 12% home (maybe if 5-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 2.76 ( 0.50- 4.97) 76% in, 52% home, 14% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out)
Lose: 1.15 ( 0.00- 4.50) 35% in, 11% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Fort Loramie (1-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 6W: 3.56 ( 3.30- 3.84) 100% home, 17% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#8), bye 17%
( 8%) 5W: 2.91 ( 2.66- 3.26) 100% in, 77% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Fort Loramie (1-1) 12%
(15%) 4W: 2.28 ( 2.00- 2.66) 98% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Fort Loramie (1-1) 15%
(19%) 3W: 1.67 ( 1.39- 2.05) 43% in, proj. out (#9-out), New Bremen (2-0) 16%
(22%) 2W: 1.09 ( 0.92- 1.44) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(20%) 1W: 0.52 ( 0.43- 0.85) out, proj. out
(11%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWWWLWWW: 3.55 ( 3.44- 3.73) 100% home, 17% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), bye 17%
( 6%) LWWWLWLL: 2.28 ( 2.23- 2.47) 98% in, 9% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Fort Loramie (1-1) 18%
( 4%) LWWLLWLL: 1.71 ( 1.65- 1.97) 56% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-1) 19%
( 6%) LLWWLWLL: 1.66 ( 1.59- 1.89) 38% in, proj. out (#10-out), Minster (2-0) 16%
( 7%) LLWLLWLL: 1.10 ( 1.06- 1.29) out
( 5%) LLLLLWLL: 0.58 ( 0.55- 0.77) out
(11%) LLWLLLLL: 0.47 ( 0.47- 0.67) out
(11%) LLLLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (0-2, 74.7, #532, D7 #42), 41% (bubble if 3-7), 15% home (maybe if 5-5), 2% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 83.7, #474, D7 #29), 67% (bubble if 3-7), 46% home (maybe if 5-5), 18% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 102.7, #339, D7 #15), 83% (bubble if 5-5), 68% home (maybe if 6-4), 38% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Last season 106.3