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Rankings
#9 of 107 in Division 7
#5 of 27 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #24 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #4 in D7 (+552 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 56-35 H #389 St Johns (0-4) D7 R26, pick: L by 18 (20%), perf. rating 127
08/29 W 60-0 H #620 Southeastern Local (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 38 (97%), perf. rating 117
09/05 W 43-24 A #372 Fort Loramie (0-4) D7 R28, pick: L by 3 (43%), perf. rating 130
09/11 W 34-16 H #460 Northridge (0-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 31 (97%), perf. rating 109
09/19 A #658 Troy Christian (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 47 (99%)
09/26 H #483 Milton-Union (0-4) D5 R20, pick: W by 31 (98%)
10/03 A #373 Miami East (3-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 15 (83%)
10/10 A #550 Bethel (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 33 (99%)
10/18 H #450 Riverside (DeGraff) (2-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 28 (97%)
10/24 A #513 Covington (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 30 (98%)
Regular season projections
10-0 record
16.78 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#3 seed in R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 96% home (maybe if 8-2), 62% bye (likely needs 10-0)
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.52 ( 4.47-19.71) 99% in, 96% home, 62% bye, proj. #4 (#2-out), bye 62%
Based on eventual number of wins
(72%) 10W: 16.78 (14.91-19.71) 100% home, 80% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 80%
(23%) 9W: 13.45 (10.97-17.59) 100% in, 96% home, 18% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 18%
( 4%) 8W: 10.88 ( 8.40-15.47) 99% in, 52% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Notre Dame (4-0) 20%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(72%) WWWWWW: 16.78 (14.91-19.71) 100% home, 80% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 80%
( 2%) WWWWWL: 14.81 (12.99-16.98) 100% home, 45% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 45%
( 1%) WLWWWW: 14.76 (12.89-17.59) 100% in, 99% home, 40% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 40%
( 1%) WWWLWW: 14.66 (12.54-16.68) 100% in, 99% home, 39% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 39%
( 3%) WWWWLW: 13.90 (12.24-16.17) 100% in, 91% home, 13% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Cedarville (2-2) 15%
(15%) WWLWWW: 12.99 (10.97-15.32) 100% in, 95% home, 8% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Cedarville (2-2) 16%
( 1%) WWLWWL: 10.78 ( 9.06-13.45) 100% in, 59% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Notre Dame (4-0) 25%
( 1%) WWLWLW: 10.27 ( 8.65-12.19) 99% in, 21% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Riverside (DeGraff) (2-2) 20%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 116.4, #245, D7 #9), likely in, 96% home (maybe if 8-2), 62% bye (likely needs 10-0), proj. #3 at 10-0
Week 3 (3-0, 118.2, #231, D7 #9), likely in, 95% home (maybe if 8-2), 49% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #3 at 10-0
Week 2 (2-0, 112.4, #275, D7 #11), 98% (bubble if 6-4), 88% home (maybe if 7-3), 40% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 110.7, #286, D7 #15), 90% (bubble if 6-4), 72% home (maybe if 7-3), 29% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 94.0, #415, D7 #27), 66% (bubble if 5-5), 43% home (maybe if 6-4), 15% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 6-4
Last season 93.9