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Rankings
#92 of 107 in Division 6
#21 of 27 in Region 24
Strength of schedule #69 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #86 in D6 (-435 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 41-0 H #688 Twin Valley South (1-2) D7 R28, pick: L by 10 (32%), perf. rating 78
08/28 W 42-0 A #685 Catholic Cent. (Sprfd.) (0-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 15 (77%), perf. rating 87
09/04 L 35-0 H #425 Dayton Christian (4-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 9 (31%), perf. rating 36
09/11 L 42-7 A #476 Bethel (1-4) D3 R12, pick: L by 22 (10%), perf. rating 33
09/19 A #585 Lehman Catholic (0-4) D7 R28, pick: L by 12 (23%)
09/25 H #373 Covington (2-3) D6 R24, pick: L by 33 (2%)
10/02 A #556 Milton-Union (0-5) D5 R20, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/09 A #370 Riverside (DeGraff) (4-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 35 (1%)
10/16 H #276 Miami East (4-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 39 (1%)
10/23 H #496 Northridge (2-3) D4 R16, pick: L by 22 (7%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
1.06 Harbin points (divisor 96)
out of R24 playoffs
Playoff chances now
unlikely to contend for playoffs
Depending on the next game
Win: 1.88 ( 1.41-10.98) out, proj. out
Lose: 1.06 ( 1.06-11.20) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 5W: 4.14 ( 3.56- 7.94) out, proj. out
( 9%) 4W: 2.88 ( 2.23- 7.33) out, proj. out
(29%) 3W: 1.88 ( 1.41- 6.46) out, proj. out
(59%) 2W: 1.06 ( 1.06- 2.73) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WLLLLW: 3.16 ( 2.75- 4.67) out
( 4%) LLLLLW: 2.76 ( 2.40- 4.17) out
( 4%) WLWLLL: 2.59 ( 2.23- 4.52) out
( 8%) LLWLLL: 1.88 ( 1.51- 2.92) out
(15%) WLLLLL: 1.41 ( 1.41- 2.87) out
(59%) LLLLLL: 1.06 ( 1.06- 2.73) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 54.3, #616, D6 #92), unlikely to contend for playoffs, proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (2-1, 57.4, #604, D6 #88), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (2-0, 67.4, #574, D6 #79), 9% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 60.8, #605, D6 #86), 8% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 36.8, #670, D6 #103), 2% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Last season 39.9