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Rankings
#70 of 106 in Division 5
#19 of 25 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #52 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #78 in D5 (-392 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 27-6 H #146 Versailles (3-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 29 (9%), perf. rating 100
08/29 L 35-7 H #222 Graham Local (4-0) D5 R20, pick: W by 3 (56%), perf. rating 75
09/05 L 48-6 A #267 Oakwood (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 23 (10%), perf. rating 53
09/12 L 28-23 A #450 Riverside (DeGraff) (2-2) D7 R28, pick: L by 8 (32%), perf. rating 80
09/19 H #460 Northridge (0-3) D5 R20, pick: L by 1 (48%)
09/26 A #245 Lehman Catholic (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/03 A #658 Troy Christian (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 30 (97%)
10/10 H #373 Miami East (3-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/17 H #513 Covington (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/24 A #550 Bethel (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 7 (68%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
3.32 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
3% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.78 ( 0.45-13.51) 5% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Miami East (3-1) 17%
Lose: 1.71 ( 0.00-11.24) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 5W: 8.26 ( 7.71-11.29) 20% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Miami East (3-1) 17%
(23%) 4W: 5.13 ( 4.58- 9.53) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(29%) 3W: 3.32 ( 2.46- 7.87) out, proj. out
(24%) 2W: 1.66 ( 1.20- 5.65) out, proj. out
(13%) 1W: 0.40 ( 0.40- 3.99) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 8%) WLWWWW: 8.26 ( 7.71- 9.67) 17% in, proj. out (#9-out), Miami East (3-1) 17%
(17%) WLWLWW: 4.98 ( 4.58- 6.40) out
( 7%) WLWLLW: 3.37 ( 2.97- 5.39) out
(13%) LLWLWW: 3.22 ( 2.87- 5.04) out
( 5%) WLWLWL: 3.02 ( 2.46- 5.04) out
(11%) LLWLLW: 1.66 ( 1.66- 3.27) out
( 8%) LLWLWL: 1.56 ( 1.20- 2.97) out
(12%) LLWLLL: 0.40 ( 0.40- 1.61) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 81.2, #483, D5 #70), 3% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (0-3, 79.8, #503, D5 #74), 7% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 83.4, #480, D5 #68), 22% (likely needs 6-4), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 95.4, #398, D5 #50), 51% (bubble if 6-4), 30% home (maybe if 7-3), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 94.5, #408, D5 #52), 55% (bubble if 6-4), 35% home (maybe if 7-3), 14% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 6-4
Last season 94.9