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Rankings
#71 of 105 in Division 5
#16 of 26 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #58 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #97 in D5 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 A #259 Carlisle (0-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 29 (9%)
08/28 A #273 Graham Local (0-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 28 (8%)
09/04 H #344 Oakwood (0-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 20 (13%)
09/11 H #506 Riverside (DeGraff) (0-0) D7 R28, pick: W by 4 (59%)
09/18 A #446 Northridge (0-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 10 (27%)
09/25 H #339 Lehman Catholic (0-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 20 (10%)
10/02 H #670 Troy Christian (0-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 35 (99%)
10/09 A #380 Miami East (0-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 20 (9%)
10/16 A #479 Covington (0-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/23 H #582 Bethel (0-0) D3 R12, pick: W by 17 (87%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
5.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
25% (bubble if 5-5), 13% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.05 ( 0.85-28.00) 66% in, 47% home, 26% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), bye 39%
Lose: 4.85 ( 0.00-23.70) 21% in, 10% home, 3% bye, proj. out (#1-out), bye 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 10W: 22.55 (18.75-28.00) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 2%) 9W: 19.40 (15.45-24.35) 100% home, 90% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 90%
( 4%) 8W: 16.50 (12.25-21.50) 99% in, 96% home, 46% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 46%
( 7%) 7W: 13.60 ( 9.40-18.50) 98% in, 68% home, 7% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 7%
(10%) 6W: 10.82 ( 6.10-15.70) 79% in, 19% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#3-out), Preble Shawnee (0-0) 7%
(14%) 5W: 8.05 ( 4.15-13.00) 24% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Preble Shawnee (0-0) 10%
(16%) 4W: 5.75 ( 2.60-10.85) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Brookville (0-0) 9%
(18%) 3W: 3.65 ( 1.60- 9.15) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(16%) 2W: 1.85 ( 0.85- 7.20) out, proj. out
(10%) 1W: 0.75 ( 0.35- 4.50) out, proj. out
( 2%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
Preble Shawnee (0-0) 6%
Purcell Marian (0-0) 5%
Greeneview (0-0) 5%
Williamsburg (0-0) 5%
Most likely second round opponents
Preble Shawnee (0-0) 10%
Brookville (0-0) 10%
Carlisle (0-0) 9%
Graham Local (0-0) 8%
Williamsburg (0-0) 7%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 98.0, #380, D5 #52), 71% (bubble if 5-5), 53% home (maybe if 7-3), 28% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Last season 76.2