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Rankings
#77 of 105 in Division 5
#18 of 26 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #50 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #78 in D5 (-405 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 43-12 A #311 Carlisle (1-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 29 (9%), perf. rating 63
08/28 L 44-14 A #233 Graham Local (2-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 31 (6%), perf. rating 76
09/04 H #309 Oakwood (2-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 27 (7%)
09/11 H #389 Riverside (DeGraff) (1-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 18 (14%)
09/18 A #505 Northridge (0-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 5 (38%)
09/25 H #531 Lehman Catholic (0-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 3 (57%)
10/02 H #574 Troy Christian (2-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/09 A #253 Miami East (2-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 33 (1%)
10/16 A #381 Covington (1-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/23 H #549 Bethel (0-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 6 (65%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
1.57 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
4% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 2.84 ( 0.66- 5.07) 32% in, 12% home, 3% bye, proj. out (#2-out)
Lose: 1.30 ( 0.00- 4.33) 3% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Bishop Fenwick (1-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 6W: 3.47 ( 3.28- 3.92) 81% in, 13% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Bishop Fenwick (1-1) 16%
( 8%) 5W: 2.80 ( 2.59- 3.28) 11% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(17%) 4W: 2.17 ( 1.98- 2.62) out, proj. out
(23%) 3W: 1.57 ( 1.36- 2.04) out, proj. out
(22%) 2W: 1.04 ( 0.78- 1.43) out, proj. out
(17%) 1W: 0.50 ( 0.35- 0.76) out, proj. out
( 9%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) LLWWWLWW: 2.81 ( 2.71- 2.96) 14% in, proj. out (#10-out), Greeneview (1-1) 20%
( 8%) LLWWWLLW: 2.17 ( 2.10- 2.42) out
( 4%) LLWLWLLW: 1.70 ( 1.65- 1.91) out
( 9%) LLLWWLLW: 1.54 ( 1.48- 1.73) out
( 6%) LLLLWLLW: 1.10 ( 1.06- 1.27) out
( 5%) LLLWWLLL: 0.91 ( 0.85- 1.11) out
( 7%) LLLLWLLL: 0.47 ( 0.47- 0.66) out
( 9%) LLLLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (0-2, 75.6, #523, D5 #77), 8% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 77.9, #504, D5 #76), 24% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 80.4, #494, D5 #71), 26% (bubble if 5-5), 13% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 76.2