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Rankings
#27 of 102 in Division 4
#7 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #70 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #31 in D4 (-9 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 34-24 A #142 Graham Local (6-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 7 (37%), perf. rating 119
08/28 W 41-6 A #525 Northridge (2-5) D4 R16, pick: W by 16 (79%), perf. rating 130
09/04 W 46-6 H #541 Batavia (1-6) D3 R12, pick: W by 29 (95%), perf. rating 131
09/11 W 40-0 H #520 Shawnee (Springfield) (2-5) D4 R16, pick: W by 35 (98%), perf. rating 135
09/18 W 49-7 A #632 Northwestern (Sprfd.) (0-7) D5 R20, pick: W by 44 (99%), perf. rating 115
09/25 W 41-7 H #438 Bellefontaine (1-6) D3 R12, pick: W by 28 (96%), perf. rating 137
10/02 W 35-7 A #522 Tecumseh (1-6) D3 R12, pick: W by 34 (99%), perf. rating 120
10/09 H #151 Urbana (5-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/16 A #106 Jonathan Alder (6-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/23 H #56 London (5-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 24 (6%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
7.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
79% (bubble if 6-4), 9% home (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 11.75 (10.75-20.90) 100% in, 24% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-#12), Wilmington (3-4) 39%
Lose: 7.80 ( 6.95-17.15) 69% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), North College Hill (6-0) 31%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 9W: 19.50 (19.05-20.90) 100% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#7), New Richmond (3-4) 36%
( 8%) 8W: 15.45 (14.45-17.50) 100% in, 85% home, proj. #8 (#6-#10), Wilmington (3-4) 53%
(33%) 7W: 11.40 (10.65-13.60) 100% in, 2% home, proj. #10 (#8-#12), Oakwood (6-1) 41%
(57%) 6W: 7.35 ( 6.95- 9.80) 64% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), North College Hill (6-0) 37%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWW: 19.50 (19.05-20.90) 100% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#7), New Richmond (3-4) 36%
( 2%) WLW: 15.45 (14.45-17.50) 100% in, 92% home, proj. #8 (#6-#9), Wilmington (3-4) 35%
( 6%) WWL: 15.40 (14.80-17.20) 100% in, 83% home, proj. #8 (#6-#10), Wilmington (3-4) 60%
( 3%) LLW: 11.60 (10.65-12.70) 100% in, 4% home, proj. #9 (#8-#12), Wilmington (3-4) 34%
( 5%) LWL: 11.55 (11.00-13.35) 100% in, 4% home, proj. #9 (#8-#12), Wilmington (3-4) 51%
(25%) WLL: 11.20 (10.75-13.60) 100% in, 2% home, proj. #10 (#8-#12), Oakwood (6-1) 44%
(57%) LLL: 7.35 ( 6.95- 9.80) 64% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), North College Hill (6-0) 37%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (6-1, 121.8, #204, D4 #27), 79% (bubble if 6-4), 9% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 6 (5-1, 121.6, #207, D4 #28), 82% (bubble if 6-4), 8% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 5 (4-1, 119.2, #224, D4 #32), 70% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 4 (3-1, 118.8, #229, D4 #33), 64% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 116.8, #242, D4 #30), 42% (likely needs 7-3), 13% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 112.4, #276, D4 #39), 35% (bubble if 7-3), 10% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 103.6, #339, D4 #49), 32% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 106.2, #303, D4 #42), 49% (bubble if 6-4), 26% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 6-4
Last season 108.8