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Rankings
#37 of 105 in Division 4
#9 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #43 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #45 in D4 (-70 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 28-27 H #222 Graham Local (4-0) D5 R20, pick: W by 12 (71%), perf. rating 115
08/29 W 34-0 H #460 Northridge (0-3) D5 R20, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 133
09/05 W 42-35 A #332 Batavia (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 11 (27%), perf. rating 117
09/12 W 42-14 A #551 Shawnee (Springfield) (0-4) D4 R16, pick: W by 34 (98%), perf. rating 115
09/19 H #393 Northwestern (Sprfd.) (3-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 21 (91%)
09/26 A #220 Bellefontaine (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 5 (38%)
10/03 H #542 Tecumseh (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 35 (99%)
10/10 A #345 Urbana (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 11 (77%)
10/17 H #191 Jonathan Alder (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/24 A #45 London (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 32 (2%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
12.34 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#11 seed in R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
88% (bubble if 5-5), 32% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.41 ( 6.70-27.63) 92% in, 35% home, 3% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), Brookville (4-0) 15%
Lose: 9.17 ( 4.23-23.54) 40% in, 5% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Wyoming (3-1) 20%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 9W: 24.85 (22.43-27.63) 100% home, 96% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 96%
(17%) 8W: 19.66 (16.52-24.30) 100% in, 96% home, 11% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Washington (2-2) 15%
(29%) 7W: 15.77 (12.29-21.18) 99% in, 45% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Brookville (4-0) 17%
(32%) 6W: 12.34 ( 8.30-18.00) 96% in, 5% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Wyoming (3-1) 17%
(17%) 5W: 10.18 ( 6.84-15.18) 55% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Wyoming (3-1) 26%
( 4%) 4W: 7.71 ( 4.98-11.24) 7% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWW: 24.85 (22.43-27.63) 100% home, 96% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 96%
(16%) WWWWWL: 19.61 (16.52-23.65) 100% in, 96% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Washington (2-2) 15%
(12%) WLWWWL: 16.28 (13.20-21.08) 100% in, 52% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Brookville (4-0) 17%
(14%) WWWWLL: 15.06 (12.29-18.75) 99% in, 33% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Brookville (4-0) 19%
( 3%) WLWLWL: 14.36 (11.64-17.29) 100% in, 14% home, proj. #10 (#6-#12), Brookville (4-0) 18%
(23%) WLWWLL: 12.04 ( 8.30-15.98) 96% in, 3% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Wyoming (3-1) 18%
(13%) WLWLLL: 10.30 ( 7.35-14.07) 58% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Wyoming (3-1) 26%
( 3%) LLWLLL: 7.56 ( 4.98-10.38) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), Clinton-Massie (3-1) 25%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 116.5, #244, D4 #37), 88% (bubble if 5-5), 32% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 117.4, #238, D4 #36), 92% (bubble if 5-5), 54% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 112.2, #277, D4 #40), 53% (bubble if 5-5), 27% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 94.7, #406, D4 #66), 16% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 99.2, #362, D4 #60), 37% (bubble if 5-5), 20% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 100.7