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Rankings
#24 of 102 in Division 4
#6 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #75 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #25 in D4 (+76 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 34-24 A #139 Graham Local (7-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 7 (37%), perf. rating 118
08/28 W 41-6 A #530 Northridge (2-6) D4 R16, pick: W by 16 (79%), perf. rating 129
09/04 W 46-6 H #509 Batavia (1-7) D3 R12, pick: W by 29 (95%), perf. rating 136
09/11 W 40-0 H #518 Shawnee (Springfield) (2-6) D4 R16, pick: W by 35 (98%), perf. rating 135
09/18 W 49-7 A #627 Northwestern (Sprfd.) (0-8) D5 R20, pick: W by 44 (99%), perf. rating 116
09/25 W 41-7 H #438 Bellefontaine (2-6) D3 R12, pick: W by 28 (96%), perf. rating 137
10/02 W 35-7 A #519 Tecumseh (1-7) D3 R12, pick: W by 34 (99%), perf. rating 121
10/09 W 21-14 H #178 Urbana (5-3) D4 R16, pick: L by 6 (35%), perf. rating 134
10/16 A #126 Jonathan Alder (6-2) D3 R11, pick: L by 11 (23%)
10/23 H #44 London (6-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 25 (5%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
11.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#10 seed in R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in, 23% home (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.25 (14.80-21.05) 100% in, 88% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-#10), Wilmington (4-4) 64%
Lose: 11.20 (10.75-16.95) 100% in, 4% home, proj. #9 (#7-#12), Wilmington (4-4) 43%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 9W: 19.50 (19.10-21.05) 100% home, 7% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), New Richmond (4-4) 32%
(24%) 8W: 15.25 (14.80-16.95) 100% in, 88% home, proj. #8 (#7-#10), Wilmington (4-4) 69%
(74%) 7W: 11.20 (10.75-13.20) 100% in, 1% home, proj. #9 (#8-#12), Wilmington (4-4) 42%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WW: 19.50 (19.10-21.05) 100% home, 7% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), New Richmond (4-4) 32%
( 3%) LW: 15.45 (15.05-16.95) 100% in, 88% home, proj. #8 (#7-#9), Wilmington (4-4) 73%
(21%) WL: 15.25 (14.80-16.80) 100% in, 88% home, proj. #8 (#7-#10), Wilmington (4-4) 68%
(74%) LL: 11.20 (10.75-13.20) 100% in, 1% home, proj. #9 (#8-#12), Wilmington (4-4) 42%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (6-1, 121.8, #204, D4 #27), 80% (bubble if 6-4), 9% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 6 (5-1, 121.6, #207, D4 #28), 82% (bubble if 6-4), 8% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 5 (4-1, 119.2, #224, D4 #32), 70% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 4 (3-1, 118.8, #229, D4 #33), 64% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 116.8, #242, D4 #30), 42% (likely needs 7-3), 13% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 112.4, #276, D4 #39), 35% (bubble if 7-3), 10% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 103.6, #339, D4 #49), 32% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 106.2, #303, D4 #42), 49% (bubble if 6-4), 26% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 6-4
Last season 108.8