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Rankings
#92 of 105 in Division 4
#21 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #93 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #75 in D4 (-365 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 35-6 A #637 Twin Valley South (1-3) D7 R28, pick: L by 8 (36%), perf. rating 98
08/29 L 43-12 H #267 Oakwood (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 7 (36%), perf. rating 65
09/05 L 43-19 A #336 Carlisle (3-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 24 (9%), perf. rating 71
09/12 W 20-14 A #658 Troy Christian (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 33 (98%), perf. rating 53
09/19 H #373 Miami East (3-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 24 (7%)
09/26 A #450 Riverside (DeGraff) (2-2) D7 R28, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/03 H #513 Covington (0-4) D6 R24, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/10 H #245 Lehman Catholic (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 33 (1%)
10/17 A #460 Northridge (0-3) D5 R20, pick: L by 15 (16%)
10/24 H #483 Milton-Union (0-4) D5 R20, pick: L by 7 (32%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
3.12 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
2% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.56 ( 3.27-16.79) 17% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) 18%
Lose: 3.12 ( 1.10-12.90) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 6W: 8.92 ( 7.25-13.01) 19% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(11%) 5W: 6.49 ( 4.88-10.84) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(20%) 4W: 4.63 ( 3.17- 8.87) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(31%) 3W: 3.12 ( 1.91- 6.86) out, proj. out
(33%) 2W: 1.91 ( 1.10- 3.88) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWWLWW: 8.36 ( 7.25-10.63) 8% in, proj. out (#11-out), Wyoming (3-1) 31%
( 4%) LLWLWW: 6.04 ( 4.88- 7.76) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Oakwood (4-0) 50%
( 8%) LLWLLW: 4.33 ( 3.17- 6.35) out
( 4%) LWLLLL: 3.88 ( 2.72- 5.90) out
( 9%) LLLLLW: 3.12 ( 1.96- 4.84) out
( 5%) LLLLWL: 3.12 ( 1.96- 5.24) out
(12%) LLWLLL: 3.07 ( 1.91- 5.14) out
(33%) LLLLLL: 1.91 ( 1.10- 3.88) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 71.8, #550, D4 #92), 2% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 78.6, #505, D4 #87), 5% (likely needs 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 77.3, #529, D4 #89), 14% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 86.6, #461, D4 #80), 31% (bubble if 7-3), 12% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 69.4, #560, D4 #94), 9% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 68.8