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Rankings
#81 of 104 in Division 3
#19 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #88 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #83 in D3 (-505 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 21-3 H #219 Tri-Village (4-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 38 (4%), perf. rating 91
08/28 L 42-14 A #206 Oakwood (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 31 (6%), perf. rating 82
09/04 L 20-12 H #375 Carlisle (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 29 (5%), perf. rating 85
09/11 W 42-7 H #616 Troy Christian (2-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 22 (90%), perf. rating 104
09/18 A #300 Miami East (3-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 26 (5%)
09/25 H #394 Riverside (DeGraff) (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 12 (22%)
10/02 A #374 Covington (2-2) D6 R24, pick: L by 18 (12%)
10/10 A #578 Lehman Catholic (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/16 H #515 Northridge (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 8 (70%)
10/23 A #557 Milton-Union (0-4) D5 R20, pick: W by 11 (77%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
5.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
6% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.55 ( 4.35-15.15) 48% in, 2% home, proj. out (#7-out), Indian Hill (2-2) 22%
Lose: 4.75 ( 1.10-12.30) 4% in, proj. out (#9-out), Archbishop Alter (3-1) 18%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 14.85 (14.50-15.15) 99% in, 14% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Hughes (4-0) 22%
( 5%) 6W: 11.10 (10.60-14.00) 67% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Indian Hill (2-2) 20%
(18%) 5W: 7.85 ( 7.35-11.90) 9% in, proj. out (#11-out), Unioto (3-1) 21%
(32%) 4W: 5.00 ( 4.70- 9.60) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(26%) 3W: 3.55 ( 3.00- 7.30) out, proj. out
(14%) 2W: 2.25 ( 1.80- 5.30) out, proj. out
( 5%) 1W: 1.10 ( 1.10- 2.40) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWW: 14.85 (14.50-15.15) 99% in, 14% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Hughes (4-0) 22%
( 6%) LLWWWW: 7.85 ( 7.55- 9.25) 8% in, proj. out (#11-out), Archbishop Alter (3-1) 21%
(10%) LWLWWW: 7.70 ( 7.35- 9.85) 7% in, proj. out (#11-out), Unioto (3-1) 23%
(22%) LLLWWW: 4.85 ( 4.70- 6.60) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Bellbrook (4-0) 17%
( 9%) LLLWWL: 3.50 ( 3.05- 5.20) out
(10%) LLLWLW: 3.15 ( 3.00- 5.00) out
( 7%) LLLWLL: 1.85 ( 1.80- 4.00) out
( 5%) LLLLLL: 1.10 ( 1.10- 2.40) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 83.0, #479, D3 #81), 6% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (0-3, 78.0, #511, D3 #89), 7% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 71.6, #549, D3 #95), 6% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 72.1, #547, D3 #95), 7% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 65.2, #582, D3 #99), 8% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Last season 64.7