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Rankings
#30 of 107 in Division 7
#10 of 27 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #16 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #20 in D7 (+150 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 36-6 A #330 Ansonia (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 28 (10%), perf. rating 62
08/29 L 36-8 H #209 Northeastern (4-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 22 (13%), perf. rating 77
09/05 W 28-14 A #543 Spencerville (1-3) D6 R22, pick: L by 10 (29%), perf. rating 96
09/12 W 28-23 H #483 Milton-Union (0-4) D5 R20, pick: W by 8 (68%), perf. rating 87
09/19 A #513 Covington (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 5 (62%)
09/26 H #550 Bethel (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/03 H #460 Northridge (0-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 3 (57%)
10/10 A #658 Troy Christian (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 33 (99%)
10/18 A #245 Lehman Catholic (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 28 (3%)
10/24 H #373 Miami East (3-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 12 (21%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
6.39 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
60% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.16 ( 2.11-16.53) 76% in, 15% home, 2% bye, proj. #11 (#2-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 14%
Lose: 5.49 ( 1.66-14.87) 33% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 8W: 15.67 (15.07-16.53) 100% home, 61% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 61%
(15%) 7W: 11.64 (11.08-15.32) 100% in, 50% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-#12), New Bremen (4-0) 16%
(29%) 6W: 8.36 ( 7.55-13.06) 93% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 16%
(28%) 5W: 6.39 ( 4.98- 9.93) 50% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 17%
(18%) 4W: 4.63 ( 3.27- 8.82) 9% in, proj. out (#10-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 20%
( 7%) 3W: 3.27 ( 2.06- 6.10) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 15.67 (15.07-16.53) 100% home, 61% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 61%
(14%) WWWWLW: 11.64 (11.08-13.45) 100% in, 46% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), New Bremen (4-0) 17%
( 4%) WWLWLW: 9.37 ( 8.46-11.64) 98% in, 4% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 15%
(21%) WWWWLL: 8.11 ( 7.55-10.02) 90% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Ansonia (3-1) 17%
(10%) LWWWLL: 6.39 ( 5.53- 8.41) 49% in, proj. out (#10-out), Ansonia (3-1) 18%
(13%) WWLWLL: 6.19 ( 5.38- 8.82) 42% in, proj. out (#9-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 17%
(11%) LWLWLL: 4.63 ( 3.77- 6.75) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 18%
( 6%) LLLWLL: 3.02 ( 2.06- 4.99) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), New Bremen (4-0) 100%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 85.6, #450, D7 #30), 60% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (1-2, 86.0, #456, D7 #34), 51% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 2 (0-2, 76.1, #535, D7 #47), 32% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 83.6, #487, D7 #32), 37% (bubble if 5-5), 15% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 86.3, #478, D7 #35), 51% (bubble if 5-5), 28% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Last season 79.6