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Rankings
#21 of 104 in Division 7
#7 of 26 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #19 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #17 in D7 (+210 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 32-8 H #210 Ansonia (2-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 22 (16%), perf. rating 84
08/28 W 47-21 A #515 Northeastern (0-2) D6 R24, pick: L by 17 (20%), perf. rating 118
09/04 H #601 Spencerville (0-2) D6 R22, pick: W by 31 (96%)
09/11 A #524 Milton-Union (0-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 18 (86%)
09/18 H #381 Covington (1-1) D6 R24, pick: W by 1 (52%)
09/25 A #549 Bethel (0-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 22 (92%)
10/02 A #505 Northridge (0-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 15 (83%)
10/09 H #574 Troy Christian (2-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/16 H #531 Lehman Catholic (0-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 22 (93%)
10/23 A #253 Miami East (2-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 21 (8%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
3.72 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#4 seed in R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
97% (bubble if 3-7), 87% home (maybe if 5-5), 48% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 3.76 ( 0.84- 5.46) 98% in, 89% home, 49% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 50%
Lose: 2.60 ( 0.40- 4.88) 77% in, 48% home, 12% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), bye 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 8%) 9W: 5.22 ( 5.04- 5.46) 100% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(30%) 8W: 4.39 ( 4.16- 4.91) 100% home, 89% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 89%
(28%) 7W: 3.72 ( 3.40- 4.26) 100% in, 99% home, 43% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), bye 43%
(18%) 6W: 3.10 ( 2.80- 3.80) 100% in, 96% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Tri-County North (1-1) 13%
( 9%) 5W: 2.52 ( 2.18- 3.12) 100% in, 55% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Upper Scioto Valley (1-1) 13%
( 5%) 4W: 1.98 ( 1.66- 2.38) 91% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Fort Loramie (1-1) 17%
( 2%) 3W: 1.44 ( 1.25- 1.88) 28% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 8%) WWWWWWWW: 5.22 ( 5.04- 5.46) 100% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 3%) WWLWWWWW: 4.54 ( 4.32- 4.74) 100% home, 92% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 92%
(25%) WWWWWWWL: 4.37 ( 4.17- 4.71) 100% home, 87% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 87%
( 3%) WWWWWWLL: 3.87 ( 3.67- 4.11) 100% home, 56% bye, proj. #4 (#3-#7), bye 56%
(15%) WWLWWWWL: 3.71 ( 3.52- 4.08) 100% home, 39% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), bye 39%
( 4%) WWWWLWWL: 3.69 ( 3.50- 3.98) 100% in, 99% home, 42% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), bye 42%
( 2%) WWLWWWLL: 3.22 ( 3.04- 3.50) 100% in, 93% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Upper Scioto Valley (1-1) 16%
( 5%) WWLWLWWL: 3.04 ( 2.88- 3.32) 100% in, 95% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#10), Upper Scioto Valley (1-1) 11%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 95.9, #388, D7 #21), 95% (bubble if 4-6), 77% home (maybe if 6-4), 27% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 1 (0-1, 74.8, #527, D7 #38), 44% (bubble if 4-6), 25% home (maybe if 5-5), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 78.2, #506, D7 #37), 42% (bubble if 5-5), 25% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 78.5