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Rankings
#28 of 105 in Division 5
#4 of 26 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #95 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #20 in D5 (+140 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 48-13 A #452 Dayton Christian (2-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 27 (89%), perf. rating 141
08/28 W 20-7 H #351 Carlisle (2-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 11 (28%), perf. rating 120
09/04 W 48-7 A #610 Northwestern (Sprfd.) (0-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 38 (98%), perf. rating 119
09/11 A #411 Covington (1-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 20 (88%)
09/18 H #511 Bethel (0-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 32 (98%)
09/25 H #525 Northridge (0-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/02 A #554 Lehman Catholic (0-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 33 (98%)
10/09 H #556 Milton-Union (0-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 35 (99%)
10/16 A #604 Troy Christian (2-1) D6 R24, pick: W by 40 (99%)
10/23 H #383 Riverside (DeGraff) (2-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 20 (91%)
Regular season projections
10-0 record
20.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#1 seed in R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in and likely home, 94% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 20.55 ( 9.50-25.00) 100% in, 99% home, 97% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#12), bye 97%
Lose: 16.75 ( 5.45-21.25) 99% in, 96% home, 71% bye, proj. #3 (#1-out), bye 71%
Based on eventual number of wins
(68%) 10W: 20.95 (17.50-25.00) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(23%) 9W: 17.80 (14.50-23.10) 100% home, 94% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 94%
( 6%) 8W: 15.05 (11.90-20.45) 100% in, 99% home, 60% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#11), bye 60%
( 2%) 7W: 12.85 (10.35-16.85) 100% in, 89% home, 20% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#12), bye 20%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(68%) WWWWWWW: 20.95 (17.50-25.00) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
( 2%) WWWLWWW: 19.30 (15.85-23.10) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#7), bye 99%
( 1%) WWWWWLW: 19.20 (14.70-21.80) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 97%
( 2%) WLWWWWW: 18.55 (15.10-22.40) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 97%
( 2%) WWLWWWW: 18.45 (15.00-22.25) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 97%
( 7%) LWWWWWW: 17.80 (14.50-21.25) 100% home, 94% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 94%
(10%) WWWWWWL: 17.40 (14.65-20.80) 100% home, 93% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 93%
( 2%) LWWWWWL: 14.45 (11.90-18.35) 100% in, 99% home, 47% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#11), bye 47%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (3-0, 115.2, #255, D5 #28), likely in and likely home, 94% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 2 (2-0, 115.2, #253, D5 #26), likely in, 98% home (maybe if 6-4), 90% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 1 (1-0, 102.7, #348, D5 #42), 86% (bubble if 5-5), 71% home (maybe if 7-3), 41% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 98.0, #380, D5 #52), 71% (bubble if 5-5), 52% home (maybe if 7-3), 28% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Last season 99.6