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Rankings
#45 of 106 in Division 5
#10 of 25 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #76 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #44 in D5 (-55 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 37-20 H #518 Dayton Christian (3-1) D6 R24, pick: W by 35 (95%), perf. rating 101
08/29 L 25-18 A #336 Carlisle (3-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 18 (18%), perf. rating 96
09/05 W 45-21 H #393 Northwestern (Sprfd.) (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 18 (16%), perf. rating 130
09/12 W 22-21 H #513 Covington (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 33 (98%), perf. rating 78
09/19 A #550 Bethel (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 24 (93%)
09/26 A #460 Northridge (0-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/03 H #245 Lehman Catholic (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 15 (17%)
10/10 A #483 Milton-Union (0-4) D5 R20, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/17 H #658 Troy Christian (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 41 (99%)
10/24 A #450 Riverside (DeGraff) (2-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 12 (79%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
16.28 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#5 seed in R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
98% (bubble if 5-5), 86% home (maybe if 6-4), 28% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.68 ( 7.45-22.39) 99% in, 89% home, 30% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 30%
Lose: 11.64 ( 6.50-19.51) 85% in, 49% home, 5% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), Greeneview (2-2) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
(14%) 9W: 20.16 (17.64-22.39) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
(41%) 8W: 16.28 (13.65-21.33) 100% in, 99% home, 33% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#9), bye 33%
(28%) 7W: 13.81 (11.33-18.40) 100% in, 93% home, 4% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#12), Greeneview (2-2) 12%
(13%) 6W: 11.64 ( 8.66-15.93) 99% in, 48% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Greeneview (2-2) 13%
( 4%) 5W: 9.78 ( 7.45-13.01) 77% in, 9% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 15%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(14%) WWWWWW: 20.16 (17.64-22.39) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
(36%) WWLWWW: 16.18 (13.65-18.65) 100% in, 99% home, 30% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#9), bye 30%
( 6%) WWLLWW: 14.16 (12.24-16.54) 100% in, 96% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Arcanum (4-0) 13%
( 8%) WLLWWW: 13.96 (11.54-16.84) 100% in, 94% home, 4% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#12), Greeneview (2-2) 12%
(11%) WWLWWL: 13.40 (11.33-15.93) 100% in, 90% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Greeneview (2-2) 13%
( 4%) WLLWWL: 11.49 ( 9.57-14.57) 98% in, 36% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Greeneview (2-2) 14%
( 4%) WWLLWL: 11.49 ( 9.06-14.32) 99% in, 47% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 14%
( 2%) WLLLWL: 9.78 ( 7.45-12.60) 78% in, 9% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 16%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 99.5, #373, D5 #45), 98% (bubble if 5-5), 86% home (maybe if 6-4), 28% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 106.3, #324, D5 #34), 98% (bubble if 5-5), 84% home (maybe if 6-4), 32% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 90.1, #433, D5 #62), 59% (bubble if 6-4), 28% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 86.3, #463, D5 #67), 36% (bubble if 6-4), 20% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 92.1, #433, D5 #58), 58% (bubble if 6-4), 38% home (maybe if 7-3), 16% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 7-3
Last season 95.5