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Rankings
#67 of 104 in Division 3
#14 of 25 in Region 11
Strength of schedule #42 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #40 in D3 (+14 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 30-13 H #477 Maysville (1-2) D3 R11, pick: L by 24 (14%), perf. rating 106
08/28 L 38-12 H #81 Clear Fork (3-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 36 (4%), perf. rating 101
09/04 W 32-14 A #313 Newark (2-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 30 (5%), perf. rating 136
09/11 A #174 Garaway (3-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 23 (9%)
09/18 A #475 Utica (0-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 19 (88%)
09/25 A #384 Licking Heights (0-3) D1 R3, pick: W by 5 (62%)
10/02 H #84 Granville (2-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 30 (3%)
10/09 H #356 Mount Vernon (1-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/16 A #244 Watkins Memorial (1-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 14 (18%)
10/23 H #91 Licking Valley (3-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 29 (3%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
7.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R11 playoffs
Playoff chances now
28% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.00 ( 6.45-28.35) 75% in, 21% home, 4% bye, proj. #11 (#1-out), Jackson (2-1) 12%
Lose: 8.60 ( 3.40-24.80) 24% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#1-out), Jackson (2-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 8W: 21.30 (17.20-24.80) 100% in, 97% home, 22% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#10), bye 22%
( 5%) 7W: 17.05 (13.65-23.05) 99% in, 39% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Jackson (2-1) 15%
(16%) 6W: 13.00 ( 9.45-19.35) 76% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Jackson (2-1) 13%
(27%) 5W: 9.90 ( 6.75-16.80) 28% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Granville (2-1) 14%
(26%) 4W: 7.90 ( 4.95-13.80) 8% in, proj. out (#10-out), Tri-Valley (2-1) 16%
(19%) 3W: 6.45 ( 4.05-11.70) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 6%) 2W: 5.10 ( 3.40- 8.45) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWLWWW: 21.12 (18.55-24.35) 100% in, 96% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Athens (2-1) 19%
( 9%) LWWLWWL: 12.65 ( 9.70-17.05) 70% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Jackson (2-1) 13%
( 3%) LWLLWWL: 10.90 ( 8.15-15.05) 39% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Granville (2-1) 17%
(18%) LWWLWLL: 9.50 ( 6.75-13.85) 20% in, proj. out (#9-out), Granville (2-1) 15%
( 9%) LWLLWLL: 8.05 ( 4.95-12.35) 8% in, proj. out (#10-out), Jonathan Alder (3-0) 17%
(11%) LWWLLLL: 7.45 ( 5.00-11.75) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), Tri-Valley (2-1) 24%
(14%) LWLLLLL: 6.45 ( 4.30-10.50) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Steubenville (3-0) 21%
( 6%) LLLLLLL: 5.10 ( 3.40- 8.45) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 104.2, #340, D3 #67), 28% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 87.5, #446, D3 #78), 5% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (1-0, 83.5, #476, D3 #83), 6% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home, proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 66.4, #574, D3 #97), 1% (must have at least 2-8 for any chance), proj. out at 0-10
Last season 66.4