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Rankings
#50 of 107 in Division 7
#10 of 25 in Region 27
Strength of schedule #19 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #71 in D7 (-295 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 29-26 A #451 Allen East (1-3) D6 R22, pick: L by 26 (12%), perf. rating 83
08/29 L 55-13 A #295 West Jefferson (4-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 14 (24%), perf. rating 49
09/05 W 32-28 A #635 Buckeye Trail (0-4) D6 R23, pick: W by 10 (71%), perf. rating 62
09/12 L 21-20 H #560 Worthington Christian (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 67
09/19 H #99 Licking Valley (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 46 (1%)
09/26 A #454 Northridge (1-3) D5 R18, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/03 A #423 Utica (1-3) D5 R18, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/10 H #254 Heath (1-3) D4 R15, pick: L by 34 (1%)
10/17 A #673 Lakewood (Hebron) (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/24 H #219 Johnstown (2-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 37 (1%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
1.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R27 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.70 ( 4.95-13.05) 29% in, 5% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out)
Lose: 1.25 ( 0.40- 8.95) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 4W: 5.25 ( 4.30- 9.90) 8% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(16%) 3W: 3.15 ( 2.20- 7.35) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(77%) 2W: 1.25 ( 0.90- 5.60) out, proj. out
( 4%) 1W: 0.75 ( 0.40- 1.85) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWWLWL: 4.90 ( 4.30- 5.90) out
( 1%) LLLLWW: 4.70 ( 3.20- 6.65) out
( 1%) LLLWWL: 3.75 ( 2.70- 5.15) out
( 9%) LWLLWL: 3.15 ( 2.25- 4.60) out
( 5%) LLWLWL: 2.90 ( 2.20- 4.25) out
(76%) LLLLWL: 1.25 ( 0.90- 3.20) out
( 4%) LLLLLL: 0.75 ( 0.40- 1.85) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 68.0, #570, D7 #50), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (1-2, 69.7, #566, D7 #53), 2% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 72.1, #552, D7 #51), 4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 83.1, #491, D7 #35), 26% (bubble if 5-5), 12% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 74.9, #537, D7 #44), 24% (bubble if 4-6), 12% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 68.6