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Rankings
#82 of 107 in Division 6
#21 of 26 in Region 23
Strength of schedule #54 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #71 in D6 (-280 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 26-18 H #631 Centennial (0-3) D3 R11, pick: W by 21 (83%), perf. rating 60
08/28 W 53-0 H #662 Whetstone (0-3) D2 R7, pick: W by 30 (93%), perf. rating 95
09/04 L 49-14 H #435 Northridge (1-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 16 (81%), perf. rating 35
09/10 A #506 Bexley (1-2) D3 R11, pick: L by 16 (17%)
09/18 H #183 Fort Frye (3-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 41 (1%)
09/25 A #285 Linden McKinley (3-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 36 (1%)
10/02 A #336 Worthington Christian (3-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 33 (2%)
10/09 A #588 Grove City Christian (0-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/16 A #389 Valley (3-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 29 (3%)
10/23 H #671 Mifflin (0-3) D2 R7, pick: W by 30 (98%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
5.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R23 playoffs
Playoff chances now
3% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.80 ( 3.40-22.55) 12% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#1-out), Elgin (3-0) 13%
Lose: 4.15 ( 1.70-18.65) 1% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Elgin (3-0) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 6W: 11.15 ( 9.25-15.05) 66% in, 8% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Elgin (3-0) 13%
(14%) 5W: 8.00 ( 6.05-13.85) 6% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Elgin (3-0) 15%
(38%) 4W: 5.80 ( 3.95- 9.65) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(41%) 3W: 3.55 ( 2.90- 7.50) out, proj. out
( 3%) 2W: 2.35 ( 1.70- 4.10) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLLWWLW: 11.00 ( 9.25-13.05) 61% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Newcomerstown (2-1) 15%
( 1%) WLLLWWW: 10.70 ( 9.25-12.95) 55% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Elgin (3-0) 15%
( 2%) LLLLWWW: 8.95 ( 7.10-10.60) 7% in, proj. out (#9-out), East Knox (3-0) 20%
(10%) WLLLWLW: 7.85 ( 6.05- 9.80) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out), West Jefferson (2-1) 25%
(32%) LLLLWLW: 5.80 ( 3.95- 8.00) out
( 4%) WLLLLLW: 5.30 ( 5.15- 7.55) out
(39%) LLLLLLW: 3.55 ( 3.45- 5.85) out
( 3%) LLLLLLL: 2.35 ( 1.70- 4.10) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 64.5, #578, D6 #82), 3% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (2-0, 85.4, #460, D6 #57), 47% (bubble if 6-4), 24% home (maybe if 7-3), 9% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 87.3, #446, D6 #56), 58% (bubble if 6-4), 33% home (maybe if 7-3), 14% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 90.4, #441, D6 #52), 63% (bubble if 5-5), 43% home (maybe if 7-3), 20% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 6-4
Last season 84.7