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Rankings
#54 of 101 in Division 4
#17 of 26 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #71 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #47 in D4 (-105 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 50-21 A #206 Philo (1-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 3 (55%), perf. rating 81
08/28 W 14-6 H #348 Highland (Marengo) (1-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 9 (33%), perf. rating 112
09/04 H #256 Columbus Academy (1-1) D5 R19, pick: L by 11 (27%)
09/11 A #410 Washington (0-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 6 (64%)
09/18 A #308 Watkins Memorial (0-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 8 (31%)
09/25 H #476 Utica (0-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 20 (90%)
10/02 A #547 Northridge (0-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/09 A #81 Johnstown (2-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 34 (1%)
10/16 H #468 Newark Catholic (2-0) D6 R23, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/23 H #663 Lakewood (Hebron) (0-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 45 (99%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
3.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
29% (bubble if 7-3), 5% home (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.40 ( 1.86- 6.36) 67% in, 17% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#3-out), Fairfield Union (1-1) 13%
Lose: 3.06 ( 0.64- 5.69) 18% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Union Local (2-0) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 8W: 5.11 ( 4.66- 5.69) 99% in, 37% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Fairfield Union (1-1) 13%
(21%) 7W: 4.35 ( 3.92- 4.84) 73% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Union Local (2-0) 13%
(26%) 6W: 3.60 ( 3.24- 4.16) 15% in, proj. out (#9-out), Union Local (2-0) 17%
(23%) 5W: 2.92 ( 2.66- 3.38) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(13%) 4W: 2.30 ( 2.02- 2.73) out, proj. out
( 6%) 3W: 1.70 ( 1.48- 2.12) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 8%) WWWWWLWW: 5.08 ( 4.67- 5.68) 99% in, 34% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Fairfield Union (1-1) 13%
(12%) LWWWWLWW: 4.37 ( 4.04- 4.82) 73% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Beaver Local (2-0) 12%
( 6%) WWLWWLWW: 4.29 ( 3.95- 4.76) 71% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Fairfield Union (1-1) 18%
(15%) LWLWWLWW: 3.58 ( 3.24- 4.02) 13% in, proj. out (#10-out), Union Local (2-0) 16%
( 4%) LWLWWLLW: 2.90 ( 2.67- 3.25) 2% in, proj. out (#12-out), East Liverpool (2-0) 33%
(12%) LLLWWLWW: 2.88 ( 2.67- 3.21) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Beaver Local (2-0) 100%
( 5%) LLLWWLLW: 2.22 ( 2.02- 2.50) out
( 2%) LLLLWLLW: 1.64 ( 1.48- 1.90) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 101.2, #355, D4 #54), 32% (bubble if 7-3), 7% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 95.1, #400, D4 #60), 23% (bubble if 6-4), 8% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 110.9, #277, D4 #36), 59% (bubble if 6-4), 38% home (maybe if 7-3), 14% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 7-3
Last season 112.5