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Rankings
#38 of 105 in Division 4
#8 of 28 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #45 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #58 in D4 (-188 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 26-21 H #291 Philo (3-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 15 (75%), perf. rating 101
08/29 L 29-3 A #173 Buckeye Valley (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 19 (17%), perf. rating 90
09/05 W 34-7 A #273 Columbus Academy (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 19 (14%), perf. rating 154
09/12 L 41-14 H #99 Licking Valley (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 14 (20%), perf. rating 99
09/19 H #297 Mount Vernon (2-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 8 (69%)
09/26 H #219 Johnstown (2-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/03 A #673 Lakewood (Hebron) (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/10 A #570 Newark Catholic (1-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 34 (99%)
10/17 H #454 Northridge (1-3) D5 R18, pick: W by 28 (97%)
10/24 A #423 Utica (1-3) D5 R18, pick: W by 21 (92%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
13.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#11 seed in R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
64% (bubble if 6-4), 22% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.95 ( 7.10-19.40) 80% in, 30% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Circleville (4-0) 12%
Lose: 9.90 ( 3.10-15.30) 26% in, 2% home, proj. out (#7-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
(31%) 7W: 16.40 (12.45-19.40) 99% in, 63% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Circleville (4-0) 14%
(38%) 6W: 13.00 (10.00-17.20) 77% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 15%
(23%) 5W: 10.10 ( 7.35-14.85) 14% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 20%
( 7%) 4W: 7.80 ( 5.50-12.40) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 1%) 3W: 6.05 ( 3.80- 9.00) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(31%) WWWWWW: 16.40 (12.45-19.40) 99% in, 63% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Circleville (4-0) 14%
( 2%) WWWWWL: 14.15 (11.30-16.60) 94% in, 18% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Circleville (4-0) 15%
( 7%) LWWWWW: 13.20 (11.20-15.30) 92% in, 10% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 15%
(28%) WLWWWW: 12.80 (10.00-15.55) 71% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 16%
( 4%) WLWWWL: 10.70 ( 7.35-13.40) 20% in, proj. out (#9-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 24%
(14%) LLWWWW: 9.90 ( 7.70-11.60) 7% in, proj. out (#10-out), Unioto (4-0) 20%
( 4%) LLWWWL: 7.80 ( 5.50- 9.35) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Philo (3-1) 50%
( 1%) LLWWLW: 7.20 ( 6.00- 8.70) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 115.0, #254, D4 #38), 64% (bubble if 6-4), 22% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 3 (1-2, 118.5, #229, D4 #34), 54% (bubble if 6-4), 19% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye, proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 2 (0-2, 100.7, #360, D4 #56), 12% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 105.8, #314, D4 #43), 32% (bubble if 6-4), 13% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 113.5, #254, D4 #36), 63% (bubble if 6-4), 45% home (maybe if 7-3), 22% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 7-3
Last season 108.1