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Rankings
#16 of 72 in Division 1
#5 of 18 in Region 3
Strength of schedule #48 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #9 in D1 (+355 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 26-6 A #61 Olentangy Liberty (1-3) D1 R3, pick: L by 24 (14%), perf. rating 181
08/29 W 28-20 H #44 Perrysburg (3-1) D1 R1, pick: W by 18 (82%), perf. rating 164
09/05 L 42-14 A #10 Olentangy Orange (4-0) D1 R3, pick: L by 6 (37%), perf. rating 138
09/12 W 43-6 A #504 Central Crossing (0-4) D1 R3, pick: W by 49 (99%), perf. rating 136
09/19 H #183 Westerville Central (2-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 28 (96%)
09/26 H #264 Thomas Worthington (1-3) D1 R3, pick: W by 34 (98%)
10/03 A #230 Marysville (2-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 30 (97%)
10/10 H #162 Hilliard Darby (2-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 26 (96%)
10/17 A #106 Dublin Jerome (3-1) D1 R2, pick: W by 15 (84%)
10/24 H #72 Olentangy Berlin (0-4) D1 R3, pick: W by 12 (79%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
27.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#3 seed in R3 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in and likely home, 58% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 26.55 (10.55-31.75) 100% in, 99% home, 59% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#12), bye 59%
Lose: 20.30 ( 9.35-26.65) 99% in, 89% home, 11% bye, proj. #6 (#2-out), Grove City (2-2) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
(54%) 9W: 27.80 (23.40-31.75) 100% home, 89% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 89%
(31%) 8W: 23.90 (18.20-28.60) 100% in, 99% home, 29% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 29%
(11%) 7W: 20.10 (16.25-24.70) 100% in, 99% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Grove City (2-2) 18%
( 3%) 6W: 16.90 (13.05-20.65) 100% in, 87% home, proj. #7 (#5-#10), Westerville Central (2-2) 16%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(54%) WWWWWW: 27.80 (23.40-31.75) 100% home, 89% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 89%
( 1%) WWLWWW: 24.75 (21.55-28.60) 100% home, 47% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#6), bye 47%
( 1%) LWWWWW: 24.70 (20.30-26.65) 100% home, 33% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#6), bye 33%
(14%) WWWWWL: 24.60 (20.75-28.50) 100% home, 36% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#7), bye 36%
( 2%) WWWLWW: 23.38 (19.55-26.60) 100% home, 26% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#7), bye 26%
(11%) WWWWLW: 22.10 (18.20-27.25) 100% in, 99% home, 19% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 19%
( 6%) WWWWLL: 19.45 (16.25-23.35) 100% in, 99% home, 2% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#9), Grove City (2-2) 18%
( 1%) WWWLLL: 16.25 (13.05-19.45) 100% in, 85% home, proj. #7 (#5-#9), Westerville Central (2-2) 17%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 156.3, #41, D1 #16), likely in and likely home, 58% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 3 (2-1, 159.6, #35, D1 #14), likely in, 97% home (maybe if 6-4), 51% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 166.8, #24, D1 #10), likely in, 97% home (maybe if 6-4), 66% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 168.7, #18, D1 #7), likely in, 93% home (maybe if 7-3), 66% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 150.0, #55, D1 #26), 82% (bubble if 5-5), 52% home (maybe if 7-3), 19% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 7-3
Last season 146.7