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Rankings
#57 of 72 in Division 1
#13 of 18 in Region 3
Strength of schedule #41 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #63 in D1 (-485 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 48-17 A #54 Canal Winchester (4-0) D2 R7, pick: L by 37 (4%), perf. rating 106
08/29 L 42-7 H #163 Worthington Kilbourne (3-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 21 (15%), perf. rating 75
09/05 L 28-27 A #258 Dublin Scioto (3-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 27 (7%), perf. rating 115
09/12 W 42-21 H #198 Grove City (2-2) D1 R3, pick: L by 32 (3%), perf. rating 153
09/19 A #17 Pickerington North (3-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 40 (1%)
09/26 A #41 Olentangy (3-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 34 (2%)
10/03 H #72 Olentangy Berlin (0-4) D1 R3, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/10 H #230 Marysville (2-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 2 (45%)
10/17 A #162 Hilliard Darby (2-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 17 (13%)
10/24 H #106 Dublin Jerome (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 23 (7%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
5.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R3 playoffs
Playoff chances now
13% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Lose: 4.50 ( 1.90-21.10) 12% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Olentangy (3-1) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 4W: 12.05 ( 8.85-16.60) 96% in, 13% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 22%
(16%) 3W: 8.20 ( 5.65-14.80) 42% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Olentangy (3-1) 24%
(36%) 2W: 5.10 ( 3.20-10.95) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(43%) 1W: 3.20 ( 1.90- 5.75) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LLLWWW: 12.05 (10.75-15.25) 95% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 22%
( 4%) LLLWLW: 8.85 ( 6.90-12.70) 45% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Olentangy (3-1) 24%
( 8%) LLLWWL: 8.20 ( 6.90-10.80) 36% in, proj. out (#9-out), Olentangy (3-1) 29%
( 2%) LLWWLL: 6.95 ( 5.65-10.80) 26% in, proj. out (#9-out), Olentangy (3-1) 23%
( 3%) LLLLLW: 6.40 ( 4.45- 9.65) 7% in, proj. out (#10-out), Upper Arlington (4-0) 19%
( 5%) LLLLWL: 5.75 ( 5.05- 8.95) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Olentangy (3-1) 25%
(27%) LLLWLL: 5.00 ( 3.70- 8.20) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Pickerington North (3-1) 35%
(43%) LLLLLL: 3.20 ( 1.90- 5.75) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Pickerington North (3-1) 100%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 114.2, #264, D1 #57), 13% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (0-3, 94.8, #402, D1 #66), 1% (must have at least 1-9 for any chance), proj. out at 0-10
Week 2 (0-2, 86.7, #458, D1 #67), 1% (must have at least 1-9 for any chance), proj. out at 0-10
Week 1 (0-1, 91.7, #427, D1 #68), 4% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 0-10
Week 0 (0-0, 90.7, #444, D1 #70), 5% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Last season 85.3