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Rankings
#37 of 72 in Division 1
#10 of 18 in Region 2
Strength of schedule #58 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #37 in D1 (-75 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 23-13 A #144 Westerville South (3-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 150
08/29 W 45-0 A #322 Reynoldsburg (0-4) D1 R3, pick: W by 22 (87%), perf. rating 171
09/05 W 24-7 H #161 Dublin Coffman (1-3) D1 R2, pick: W by 9 (69%), perf. rating 153
09/12 L 24-16 A #183 Westerville Central (2-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 29 (96%), perf. rating 116
09/19 H #61 Olentangy Liberty (1-3) D1 R3, pick: L by 7 (33%)
09/26 H #230 Marysville (2-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/03 A #162 Hilliard Darby (2-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 8 (70%)
10/10 A #72 Olentangy Berlin (0-4) D1 R3, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/17 H #41 Olentangy (3-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 15 (16%)
10/24 A #264 Thomas Worthington (1-3) D1 R3, pick: W by 23 (93%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
15.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#8 seed in R2 playoffs
Playoff chances now
93% (bubble if 4-6), 61% home (maybe if 6-4), 23% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 19.05 ( 8.80-30.05) 99% in, 85% home, 45% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 45%
Lose: 14.50 ( 5.00-26.75) 90% in, 50% home, 12% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), bye 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 9W: 25.95 (22.30-30.05) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(14%) 8W: 22.25 (17.10-27.90) 100% in, 99% home, 74% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#9), bye 74%
(23%) 7W: 17.80 (13.25-25.30) 100% in, 93% home, 24% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#12), bye 24%
(31%) 6W: 15.10 (11.15-21.40) 99% in, 58% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 12%
(19%) 5W: 11.90 ( 8.70-18.40) 84% in, 8% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Hilliard Darby (2-2) 12%
( 6%) 4W: 9.45 ( 6.10-14.60) 50% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 16%
( 1%) 3W: 7.50 ( 5.00-10.55) 13% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 6%) WWWWWW: 25.95 (22.30-30.05) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#6), bye 99%
( 4%) LWWWWW: 23.55 (20.35-26.75) 100% home, 93% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 93%
( 6%) WWWWLW: 20.30 (17.10-24.65) 100% in, 99% home, 53% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 53%
( 7%) LWWWLW: 17.70 (13.90-21.40) 100% in, 96% home, 17% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 17%
( 9%) WWWLLW: 17.65 (13.85-22.00) 100% in, 92% home, 15% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 15%
(20%) LWWLLW: 15.10 (11.90-20.65) 99% in, 65% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 13%
(12%) LWLLLW: 11.70 ( 8.70-16.25) 82% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Hilliard Darby (2-2) 13%
( 1%) LLLLLL: 7.50 ( 5.00-10.55) 13% in, proj. out (#10-out), Hilliard Darby (2-2) 27%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 139.7, #106, D1 #37), 93% (bubble if 4-6), 61% home (maybe if 6-4), 23% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 3 (3-0, 149.6, #60, D1 #24), 98% (bubble if 5-5), 82% home (maybe if 7-3), 45% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 146.1, #81, D1 #30), 95% (bubble if 4-6), 74% home (maybe if 6-4), 34% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 135.2, #125, D1 #41), 84% (bubble if 4-6), 49% home (maybe if 7-3), 14% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 129.5, #155, D1 #48), 57% (bubble if 4-6), 31% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Last season 127.3