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Rankings
#45 of 79 in Division 1
#11 of 20 in Region 2
Strength of schedule #53 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #65 in D1 (-400 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 20-13 H #179 Westerville South (3-5) D1 R3, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 113
08/28 L 42-31 H #92 Reynoldsburg (5-3) D1 R3, pick: W by 12 (73%), perf. rating 121
09/04 W 45-28 A #176 Dublin Coffman (2-6) D1 R2, pick: L by 23 (10%), perf. rating 153
09/11 L 16-10 H #116 Westerville Central (4-4) D1 R3, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 125
09/18 L 42-29 A #57 New Albany (6-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 26 (5%), perf. rating 132
09/25 W 45-12 A #298 Marysville (3-5) D1 R2, pick: W by 9 (72%), perf. rating 161
10/02 L 25-20 H #74 Hilliard Darby (4-4) D1 R2, pick: L by 11 (24%), perf. rating 134
10/09 L 17-10 H #56 Olentangy Berlin (6-2) D1 R3, pick: L by 15 (16%), perf. rating 138
10/16 A #77 Olentangy (4-4) D1 R3, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/23 H #329 Thomas Worthington (2-6) D1 R3, pick: W by 28 (97%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
6.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R2 playoffs
Playoff chances now
24% (likely needs 4-6), no home game
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.55 ( 7.60-11.50) 78% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Hilliard Darby (4-4) 26%
Lose: 6.30 ( 4.35- 8.25) 5% in, proj. out (#12-out), Hilliard Bradley (5-3) 44%
Based on eventual number of wins
(25%) 4W: 9.55 ( 9.55-11.50) 80% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Hilliard Darby (4-4) 26%
(72%) 3W: 6.30 ( 6.30- 9.55) 6% in, proj. out (#12-out), Hilliard Bradley (5-3) 45%
( 3%) 2W: 4.35 ( 4.35- 5.65) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(25%) WW: 9.55 ( 9.55-11.50) 80% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Hilliard Darby (4-4) 26%
(71%) LW: 6.30 ( 6.30- 8.25) 6% in, proj. out (#12-out), Hilliard Bradley (5-3) 44%
( 3%) LL: 4.35 ( 4.35- 5.65) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (2-5, 133.3, #131, D1 #46), 23% (bubble if 4-6), 3% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 3-7
Week 6 (2-4, 132.8, #134, D1 #49), 47% (likely needs 4-6), 10% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 3-7
Week 5 (1-4, 128.3, #163, D1 #50), 37% (likely needs 4-6), 4% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 3-7
Week 4 (1-3, 126.7, #171, D1 #52), 43% (likely needs 4-6), 7% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 124.6, #185, D1 #53), 55% (bubble if 3-7), 19% home (maybe if 5-5), 3% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 116.5, #243, D1 #63), 26% (likely needs 4-6), 8% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 128.9, #157, D1 #51), 55% (bubble if 4-6), 29% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 132.7, #136, D1 #44), 66% (bubble if 4-6), 43% home (maybe if 6-4), 19% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 6-4
Last season 135.2