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Rankings
#55 of 72 in Division 1
#17 of 18 in Region 2
Strength of schedule #37 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #41 in D1 (-155 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 42-0 H #10 Olentangy Orange (4-0) D1 R3, pick: L by 28 (10%), perf. rating 113
08/29 W 37-6 H #427 KIPP Columbus (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 24 (89%), perf. rating 135
09/05 W 30-21 A #269 Lancaster (1-3) D1 R3, pick: L by 3 (43%), perf. rating 128
09/12 L 42-14 H #114 Hilliard Bradley (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 8 (32%), perf. rating 95
09/19 A #53 Hilliard Davidson (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 29 (3%)
09/26 A #106 Dublin Jerome (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/03 H #41 Olentangy (3-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 30 (3%)
10/10 A #264 Thomas Worthington (1-3) D1 R3, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/17 A #72 Olentangy Berlin (0-4) D1 R3, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/24 H #162 Hilliard Darby (2-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 9 (28%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
5.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R2 playoffs
Playoff chances now
10% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.45 ( 5.50-24.70) 55% in, 17% home, 4% bye, proj. #12 (#2-out), Dublin Jerome (3-1) 11%
Lose: 5.15 ( 1.80-21.10) 8% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Wayne (2-2) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 6W: 15.15 (11.30-19.20) 98% in, 52% home, 4% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 12%
( 6%) 5W: 11.85 ( 8.20-16.00) 78% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Springboro (2-2) 12%
(22%) 4W: 8.20 ( 5.65-13.85) 15% in, proj. out (#9-out), Wayne (2-2) 15%
(37%) 3W: 5.35 ( 3.10-10.65) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(33%) 2W: 3.70 ( 1.80- 6.25) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWLWLW: 12.20 (10.10-14.80) 90% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Springboro (2-2) 13%
( 2%) LLLWWW: 10.50 ( 8.20-12.85) 46% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wayne (2-2) 16%
( 2%) LWLWLL: 8.55 ( 6.30-11.60) 17% in, proj. out (#11-out), Hilliard Darby (2-2) 16%
(15%) LLLWLW: 7.90 ( 6.00-11.45) 11% in, proj. out (#10-out), Springboro (2-2) 18%
( 1%) LLLWWL: 7.10 ( 5.65-10.25) 4% in, proj. out (#12-out), Dublin Jerome (3-1) 33%
( 8%) LLLLLW: 6.25 ( 4.30- 9.65) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Findlay (3-1) 17%
(26%) LLLWLL: 5.15 ( 3.10- 8.25) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Dublin Jerome (3-1) 50%
(33%) LLLLLL: 3.70 ( 1.80- 6.25) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Wayne (2-2) 100%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 117.9, #230, D1 #55), 10% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (2-1, 127.0, #178, D1 #48), 33% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 120.7, #217, D1 #54), 28% (bubble if 4-6), 8% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 114.6, #254, D1 #57), 29% (bubble if 4-6), 8% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 121.2, #202, D1 #57), 41% (bubble if 4-6), 18% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 116.6