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Rankings
#74 of 106 in Division 5
#18 of 26 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #54 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #74 in D5 (-305 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 44-36 A #505 Rossford (2-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 10 (32%), perf. rating 93
08/29 W 56-42 H #502 Lake (Millbury) (0-4) D5 R18, pick: L by 8 (34%), perf. rating 98
09/05 L 28-18 A #447 Upper Sandusky (1-3) D4 R14, pick: L by 10 (29%), perf. rating 74
09/12 L 45-8 H #280 Gibsonburg (3-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 22 (10%), perf. rating 55
09/19 A #260 Margaretta (3-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 31 (3%)
09/26 A #568 Willard (2-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 8 (69%)
10/03 H #406 Calvert (1-3) D7 R26, pick: L by 14 (18%)
10/10 H #286 Woodmore (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/17 A #149 Hopewell-Loudon (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 39 (1%)
10/24 H #503 Lakota (3-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 2 (55%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
6.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.40 ( 5.50-15.25) 33% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 28%
Lose: 5.90 ( 2.55-16.25) 4% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 30%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 6W: 11.25 (10.00-13.40) 64% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 34%
(15%) 5W: 8.55 ( 7.05-11.90) 13% in, proj. out (#9-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 28%
(33%) 4W: 6.60 ( 4.85- 9.55) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(32%) 3W: 5.00 ( 3.30- 8.50) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(17%) 2W: 3.50 ( 2.55- 5.35) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWWWLW: 11.25 (10.00-12.80) 61% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 36%
( 2%) LWLWLW: 9.40 ( 8.05-11.05) 26% in, proj. out (#9-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 27%
(10%) LWWLLW: 8.15 ( 7.05- 9.90) 8% in, proj. out (#10-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 28%
(25%) LWLLLW: 6.60 ( 5.60- 9.20) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 43%
( 4%) LWWLLL: 6.20 ( 4.85- 8.00) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Norwayne (2-2) 100%
( 9%) LLLLLW: 5.40 ( 4.05- 6.75) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 100%
(21%) LWLLLL: 4.65 ( 3.70- 6.55) out
(17%) LLLLLL: 3.50 ( 2.55- 5.35) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 78.8, #508, D5 #74), 4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (2-1, 83.2, #479, D5 #67), 13% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (2-0, 81.0, #494, D5 #71), 20% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 69.8, #562, D5 #87), 11% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 62.4, #598, D5 #88), 11% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 65.3