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Rankings
#51 of 106 in Division 5
#20 of 25 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #70 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #68 in D5 (-319 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 27-24 H #417 Rossford (4-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 4 (56%), perf. rating 94
08/28 L 36-35 A #431 Lake (Millbury) (4-4) D4 R14, pick: L by 12 (27%), perf. rating 90
09/04 W 28-0 A #514 St Paul (4-3) D7 R25, pick: L by 8 (33%), perf. rating 121
09/11 W 34-31 A #411 Edison (Milan) (2-6) D5 R18, pick: L by 17 (16%), perf. rating 99
09/18 W 35-13 H #549 Bowsher (2-6) D2 R6, pick: W by 25 (94%), perf. rating 102
09/25 L 35-29 H #264 Woodmore (8-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 11 (24%), perf. rating 103
10/02 L 45-14 H #334 Margaretta (6-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 3 (42%), perf. rating 56
10/09 L 53-50 A #386 Gibsonburg (3-4) D7 R26, pick: L by 6 (35%), perf. rating 94
10/16 H #588 Ottawa Hills (3-5) D6 R22, pick: W by 28 (97%)
10/23 A #481 Lakota (4-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 7 (68%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
12.75 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
6% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.34 ( 9.49-14.69) 6% in, proj. out (#9-out), Bluffton (7-1) 54%
Lose: 10.44 ( 7.87-12.30) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
(65%) 6W: 12.75 (11.37-14.69) 9% in, proj. out (#9-out), Bluffton (7-1) 54%
(34%) 5W: 10.87 ( 9.49-12.45) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 1%) 4W: 9.25 ( 7.87-10.68) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(65%) WW: 12.75 (11.37-14.69) 9% in, proj. out (#9-out), Bluffton (7-1) 54%
( 2%) LW: 11.13 (10.11-12.30) out
(32%) WL: 10.87 ( 9.49-12.45) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Bluffton (7-1) 100%
( 1%) LL: 9.25 ( 7.87-10.68) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (4-3, 92.6, #417, D5 #51), 62% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 6 (4-2, 98.1, #378, D5 #47), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 32% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 5 (4-1, 96.6, #391, D5 #49), 78% (bubble if 6-4), 36% home (maybe if 7-3), 9% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 4 (3-1, 96.0, #404, D5 #52), 74% (bubble if 6-4), 29% home (maybe if 8-2), 5% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 92.1, #416, D5 #55), 42% (bubble if 6-4), 16% home (maybe if 8-2), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 78.1, #509, D5 #74), 9% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 75.8, #521, D5 #78), 14% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 75.5, #526, D5 #78), 13% (bubble if 7-3), 5% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 79.6