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Rankings
#51 of 106 in Division 5
#20 of 25 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #68 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #61 in D5 (-238 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 27-24 H #419 Rossford (3-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 4 (56%), perf. rating 95
08/28 L 36-35 A #407 Lake (Millbury) (4-3) D4 R14, pick: L by 12 (27%), perf. rating 94
09/04 W 28-0 A #535 St Paul (3-3) D7 R25, pick: L by 8 (33%), perf. rating 118
09/11 W 34-31 A #378 Edison (Milan) (2-5) D5 R18, pick: L by 17 (16%), perf. rating 104
09/18 W 35-13 H #553 Bowsher (2-5) D2 R6, pick: W by 25 (94%), perf. rating 101
09/25 L 35-29 H #318 Woodmore (7-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 11 (24%), perf. rating 95
10/02 L 45-14 H #296 Margaretta (6-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 3 (42%), perf. rating 62
10/09 A #387 Gibsonburg (2-4) D7 R26, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/16 H #584 Ottawa Hills (3-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 28 (97%)
10/23 A #481 Lakota (3-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 7 (68%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
12.75 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#12 seed in R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
61% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.92 ( 9.39-16.98) 83% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Genoa Area (5-2) 16%
Lose: 12.19 ( 7.87-15.20) 50% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Margaretta (6-1) 18%
Based on eventual number of wins
(27%) 7W: 14.02 (12.08-16.98) 92% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Genoa Area (5-2) 16%
(46%) 6W: 12.75 (10.30-15.20) 64% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Margaretta (6-1) 18%
(26%) 5W: 10.87 ( 9.24-13.52) 28% in, proj. out (#10-out), Genoa Area (5-2) 18%
( 2%) 4W: 9.27 ( 7.87-11.24) 5% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(27%) WWW: 14.02 (12.08-16.98) 92% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Genoa Area (5-2) 16%
(38%) LWW: 12.75 (10.86-15.20) 66% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Margaretta (6-1) 18%
( 7%) WWL: 12.14 (10.30-14.95) 56% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Margaretta (6-1) 19%
( 1%) LLW: 11.13 ( 9.24-12.61) 33% in, proj. out (#11-out), Bluffton (6-1) 35%
(24%) LWL: 10.87 ( 9.34-13.52) 28% in, proj. out (#10-out), Genoa Area (5-2) 18%
( 2%) LLL: 9.27 ( 7.87-11.24) 5% in, proj. out (#12-out), Genoa Area (5-2) 50%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (4-3, 92.6, #417, D5 #51), 61% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 6 (4-2, 98.1, #378, D5 #47), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 32% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 5 (4-1, 96.6, #391, D5 #49), 78% (bubble if 6-4), 36% home (maybe if 7-3), 9% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 4 (3-1, 96.0, #404, D5 #52), 74% (bubble if 6-4), 29% home (maybe if 8-2), 5% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 92.1, #416, D5 #55), 42% (bubble if 6-4), 16% home (maybe if 8-2), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 78.1, #509, D5 #74), 9% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 75.8, #521, D5 #78), 14% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 75.5, #526, D5 #78), 13% (bubble if 7-3), 5% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 79.6