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Rankings
#52 of 102 in Division 3
#12 of 25 in Region 11
Strength of schedule #64 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #46 in D3 (-62 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 21-9 A #486 River Valley (Caled.) (0-7) D4 R14, pick: W by 20 (82%), perf. rating 103
08/28 L 35-14 H #186 Teays Valley (1-6) D2 R7, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 92
09/04 L 35-14 H #106 Jonathan Alder (6-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 24 (9%), perf. rating 105
09/11 W 42-13 A #585 Liberty Union (0-7) D6 R23, pick: W by 34 (98%), perf. rating 107
09/18 W 30-13 A #266 Fairfield Union (5-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 14 (19%), perf. rating 141
09/25 W 34-20 H #475 Logan Elm (2-5) D5 R19, pick: W by 29 (97%), perf. rating 103
10/02 L 30-0 A #38 DeSales (Columbus) (5-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 37 (1%), perf. rating 115
10/09 H #200 Hamilton Township (5-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 8 (30%)
10/16 A #397 Circleville (4-3) D4 R15, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/23 H #446 Amanda-Clearcreek (2-5) D5 R19, pick: W by 25 (95%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
11.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R11 playoffs
Playoff chances now
38% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.20 ( 9.55-16.25) 92% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Granville (5-2) 18%
Lose: 11.00 ( 5.45-12.75) 15% in, proj. out (#11-out), Dover (5-2) 51%
Based on eventual number of wins
(27%) 7W: 15.20 (14.60-16.25) 98% in, 5% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Granville (5-2) 18%
(57%) 6W: 11.15 (10.50-14.00) 22% in, proj. out (#10-out), Dover (5-2) 50%
(15%) 5W: 8.20 ( 7.25-11.05) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 2%) 4W: 5.90 ( 5.45- 7.45) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(27%) WWW: 15.20 (14.60-16.25) 98% in, 5% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Granville (5-2) 18%
( 2%) WLW: 11.95 (11.35-13.40) 40% in, proj. out (#10-out), Dover (5-2) 44%
(54%) LWW: 11.10 (10.50-12.75) 20% in, proj. out (#11-out), Dover (5-2) 51%
( 3%) LWL: 9.20 ( 8.65-10.65) 2% in, proj. out (#12-out), Dover (5-2) 33%
(12%) LLW: 7.80 ( 7.25-10.20) out
( 2%) LLL: 5.90 ( 5.45- 7.45) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (4-3, 112.9, #270, D3 #52), 38% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 6-4
Week 6 (4-2, 111.1, #285, D3 #58), 25% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 6-4
Week 5 (3-2, 112.3, #276, D3 #51), 19% (likely needs 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 6-4
Week 4 (2-2, 105.3, #324, D3 #63), 5% (likely needs 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (1-2, 110.0, #289, D3 #57), 32% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home, proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 110.2, #290, D3 #56), 39% (bubble if 6-4), 12% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 123.4, #191, D3 #33), 77% (bubble if 5-5), 54% home (maybe if 7-3), 20% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 124.2, #180, D3 #29), 68% (bubble if 5-5), 50% home (maybe if 7-3), 25% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 7-3
Last season 122.2