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Rankings
#40 of 107 in Division 3
#8 of 26 in Region 11
Strength of schedule #53 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #58 in D3 (-188 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 20-7 H #326 Chillicothe (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 35 (95%), perf. rating 123
08/29 L 14-0 A #135 Teays Valley (3-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 11 (71%), perf. rating 115
09/05 L 14-10 A #191 Jonathan Alder (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 8 (33%), perf. rating 121
09/12 W 16-6 A #259 Amanda-Clearcreek (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 5 (62%), perf. rating 132
09/19 H #490 Liberty Union (3-1) D6 R23, pick: W by 35 (99%)
09/26 H #324 Fairfield Union (1-3) D4 R15, pick: W by 21 (91%)
10/03 A #470 Logan Elm (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/10 A #217 St Clairsville (3-1) D5 R17, pick: W by 3 (58%)
10/17 A #197 Hamilton Township (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/24 H #342 Circleville (4-0) D4 R15, pick: W by 22 (93%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
19.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#7 seed in R11 playoffs
Playoff chances now
95% (bubble if 5-5), 66% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 19.20 ( 5.90-27.00) 95% in, 67% home, 9% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), Athens (4-0) 15%
Lose: 13.55 ( 5.15-23.00) 70% in, 25% home, proj. #10 (#5-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(30%) 8W: 23.70 (20.55-27.00) 100% home, 29% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 29%
(34%) 7W: 19.45 (15.55-24.35) 100% in, 89% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#12), Athens (4-0) 19%
(24%) 6W: 15.35 (11.30-19.80) 99% in, 25% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Athens (4-0) 18%
(10%) 5W: 12.25 ( 8.90-17.45) 71% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Granville (3-1) 19%
( 2%) 4W: 9.40 ( 6.85-13.20) 22% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(30%) WWWWWW: 23.70 (20.55-27.00) 100% home, 29% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 29%
(11%) WWWLWW: 19.95 (17.95-22.70) 100% in, 96% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Athens (4-0) 19%
( 2%) WWWWWL: 19.30 (16.55-22.30) 100% in, 91% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Athens (4-0) 19%
(19%) WWWWLW: 19.00 (15.55-21.80) 100% in, 84% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#12), Athens (4-0) 20%
(17%) WWWLLW: 15.20 (13.00-18.25) 99% in, 19% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Athens (4-0) 18%
( 3%) WLWLLW: 12.80 (10.20-15.65) 83% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Granville (3-1) 20%
( 4%) WWWLLL: 11.30 ( 8.90-14.60) 55% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Granville (3-1) 20%
( 2%) WLWLLL: 8.95 ( 6.85-11.95) 14% in, proj. out (#11-out), Hamilton Township (4-0) 36%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 125.1, #187, D3 #40), 95% (bubble if 5-5), 66% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 3 (1-2, 120.3, #220, D3 #45), 83% (bubble if 4-6), 51% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye, proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 116.9, #246, D3 #54), 80% (bubble if 5-5), 57% home (maybe if 7-3), 22% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 127.2, #168, D3 #35), 90% (bubble if 5-5), 72% home (maybe if 7-3), 35% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 135.0, #123, D3 #28), 84% (bubble if 6-4), 69% home (maybe if 7-3), 38% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #2 at 9-1
Last season 132.3