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Rankings
#58 of 107 in Division 7
#15 of 27 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #97 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #35 in D7 (+25 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 26-24 A #647 Fairfield Christian (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 5 (59%), perf. rating 53
08/29 W 23-15 H #670 Southeastern (2-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 17 (80%), perf. rating 47
09/06 W 34-6 A #652 Fisher Catholic (3-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 89
09/12 W 35-15 A #661 Miami Valley Christian (1-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 24 (92%), perf. rating 73
09/20 H #639 Shadyside (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 12 (77%)
09/26 H #516 South Gallia (3-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 12 (22%)
10/03 A #708 Green (FF) (0-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/10 H #533 Eastern (Beaver) (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/17 A #480 Symmes Valley (4-0) D7 R27, pick: L by 20 (9%)
10/24 A #704 Sciotoville Community (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 38 (99%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
10.02 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#9 seed in R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 48% home (maybe if 7-3), 13% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.04 ( 7.45-23.70) 99% in, 56% home, 16% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), bye 16%
Lose: 8.92 ( 6.04-20.62) 96% in, 22% home, 2% bye, proj. #10 (#2-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 10W: 20.12 (18.30-23.70) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(12%) 9W: 16.38 (13.96-21.03) 100% home, 62% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 62%
(27%) 8W: 13.15 (10.58-17.85) 100% in, 87% home, 6% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#11), Cedarville (2-2) 16%
(40%) 7W: 10.02 ( 7.45-15.13) 99% in, 22% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), New Bremen (4-0) 17%
(17%) 6W: 8.56 ( 6.04-12.15) 95% in, 4% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 17%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWWW: 20.12 (18.30-23.70) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 3%) WLWWWW: 16.73 (14.51-19.97) 100% home, 75% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 75%
( 7%) WWWWLW: 16.23 (13.96-19.26) 100% home, 59% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 59%
(13%) WLWWLW: 13.15 (10.98-16.69) 100% in, 95% home, 7% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#11), Eastern (Beaver) (4-0) 18%
( 4%) WLWLWW: 13.15 (10.63-16.54) 100% in, 83% home, 5% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Cedarville (2-2) 17%
( 8%) WWWLLW: 12.75 (10.58-15.48) 100% in, 75% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), New Bremen (4-0) 17%
(34%) WLWLLW: 9.97 ( 7.45-13.06) 99% in, 15% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), New Bremen (4-0) 17%
(16%) LLWLLW: 8.51 ( 6.04-11.69) 95% in, 3% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 18%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 63.3, #590, D7 #58), likely in, 48% home (maybe if 7-3), 13% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 3 (3-0, 64.3, #592, D7 #59), likely in, 65% home (maybe if 7-3), 19% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 51.8, #638, D7 #73), 75% (bubble if 5-5), 33% home (maybe if 7-3), 9% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 52.5, #628, D7 #68), 66% (bubble if 5-4), 29% home (maybe if 7-2), 7% bye (maybe if 8-1), proj. #11 at 6-3
Week 0 (0-0, 53.0, #633, D7 #68), 63% (bubble if 4-5), 38% home (maybe if 6-3), 12% bye (maybe if 8-1), proj. #9 at 5-4
Last season 48.8