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Rankings
#67 of 103 in Division 7
#14 of 27 in Region 27
Strength of schedule #81 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #52 in D7 (-156 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 L 41-6 H #483 River (3-0) D6 R23, pick: W by 9 (66%), perf. rating 28
08/28 W 27-6 A #670 Fayetteville (1-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 10 (69%), perf. rating 64
09/04 W 7-0 H #642 Fisher Catholic (2-1) D7 R27, pick: W by 5 (61%), perf. rating 53
09/18 A #599 Chesapeake (1-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 10 (27%)
09/25 A #628 South Gallia (2-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/02 H #698 Green (FF) (1-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 40 (99%)
10/09 A #463 Eastern (Beaver) (2-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 30 (2%)
10/16 H #293 Symmes Valley (3-0) D7 R27, pick: L by 40 (1%)
10/23 H #697 Sciotoville Community (0-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 40 (99%)
Regular season projections
5-4 record
9.90 Harbin points (divisor 88)
#10 seed in R27 playoffs
Playoff chances now
75% (bubble if 4-5), 25% home (maybe if 6-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.85 ( 5.35-20.61) 93% in, 49% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Fisher Catholic (2-1) 15%
Lose: 8.32 ( 4.12-19.37) 68% in, 16% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#1-out), Eastern (Beaver) (2-1) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 14.42 (11.41-19.37) 100% in, 99% home, 13% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#10), bye 13%
(18%) 6W: 11.36 ( 8.47-16.59) 99% in, 69% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Fisher Catholic (2-1) 17%
(36%) 5W: 9.90 ( 5.35-14.56) 95% in, 27% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Eastern (Beaver) (2-1) 17%
(41%) 4W: 7.41 ( 4.40-11.95) 46% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Eastern (Beaver) (2-1) 17%
( 1%) 3W: 6.62 ( 4.12-11.17) 18% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWLW: 14.25 (11.41-17.15) 100% in, 99% home, 10% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Eastern (Beaver) (2-1) 15%
( 2%) LWWWLW: 13.13 (10.68-15.12) 100% in, 99% home, 4% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#9), Lucas (1-2) 14%
(16%) WWWLLW: 11.31 ( 8.69-14.83) 99% in, 65% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Fisher Catholic (2-1) 18%
( 1%) LLWWLW: 10.30 ( 7.68-12.62) 99% in, 37% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Fisher Catholic (2-1) 17%
(26%) LWWLLW: 10.07 ( 6.94-13.08) 99% in, 34% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Eastern (Beaver) (2-1) 17%
( 8%) WLWLLW: 8.42 ( 5.35-12.22) 78% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Eastern (Beaver) (2-1) 18%
(41%) LLWLLW: 7.41 ( 4.40-10.13) 45% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Eastern (Beaver) (2-1) 17%
( 1%) LLWLLL: 6.62 ( 4.12- 8.95) 20% in, proj. out (#10-out), Eastern (Reedsville) (2-1) 22%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 51.0, #627, D7 #67), 75% (bubble if 4-5), 25% home (maybe if 6-3), proj. #10 at 5-4
Week 2 (1-1, 48.4, #639, D7 #69), 60% (bubble if 4-5), 27% home (maybe if 6-3), 3% bye (maybe if 7-2), proj. #12 at 5-4
Week 1 (0-1, 41.8, #655, D7 #78), 36% (bubble if 4-5), 16% home (maybe if 6-3), 4% bye (maybe if 7-2), proj. out at 4-5
Week 0 (0-0, 62.5, #593, D7 #57), 70% (bubble if 5-4), 48% home (maybe if 6-3), 23% bye (maybe if 7-2), proj. #9 at 6-3
Last season 67.7