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Rankings
#94 of 105 in Division 4
#23 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #102 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #94 in D4 (-680 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 33-18 H #655 Norwood (0-4) D5 R20, pick: W by 33 (93%), perf. rating 64
08/29 L 40-20 A #394 Deer Park (4-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 10 (31%), perf. rating 68
09/06 L 28-21 A #440 St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 22 (11%), perf. rating 79
09/12 L 53-20 A #379 New Richmond (2-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 24 (8%), perf. rating 52
09/19 A #325 Washington (2-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 30 (3%)
09/26 A #688 Lockland (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 33 (98%)
10/02 H #618 Clark Montessori (1-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 15 (83%)
10/09 H #443 Cincinnati College Prep (2-2) D7 R28, pick: L by 14 (18%)
10/15 A #703 Dayton Stivers (0-1) D6 R24, pick: W by 41 (99%)
10/23 H #668 Gamble Montessori (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 29 (97%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
5.78 Harbin points (divisor 95)
out of R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
4% (likely needs 7-3), no home game
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.91 ( 4.02-13.53) 38% in, proj. out (#9-out), Wyoming (3-1) 25%
Lose: 5.78 ( 1.59-11.34) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wyoming (3-1) 28%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 11.63 ( 9.42-13.53) 83% in, proj. #11 (#9-out)
(19%) 6W: 8.82 ( 6.70-11.60) 13% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wyoming (3-1) 27%
(60%) 5W: 5.78 ( 4.26- 9.52) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(17%) 4W: 4.33 ( 2.81- 7.08) out, proj. out
( 2%) 3W: 3.19 ( 1.94- 4.56) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWW: 11.63 ( 9.42-13.53) 83% in, proj. #11 (#9-out), Wyoming (3-1) 23%
(18%) LWWWWW: 8.82 ( 7.08-11.34) 13% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wyoming (3-1) 27%
( 2%) WWWLWW: 8.44 ( 6.70-10.49) 14% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wyoming (3-1) 33%
( 2%) LWLWWW: 7.37 ( 5.63- 9.52) 3% in, proj. out (#12-out), Wyoming (3-1) 80%
(58%) LWWLWW: 5.78 ( 4.26- 8.15) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Wyoming (3-1) 33%
( 1%) LLWLWW: 5.04 ( 3.91- 6.22) out
(13%) LWLLWW: 4.33 ( 2.81- 6.75) out
( 3%) LWWLWL: 4.12 ( 3.02- 5.44) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 70.5, #558, D4 #94), 4% (likely needs 7-3), no home game, proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (1-2, 68.8, #573, D4 #96), 7% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 65.3, #584, D4 #96), 17% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 72.3, #549, D4 #93), 44% (bubble if 6-4), 15% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. out at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 77.7, #528, D4 #90), 35% (bubble if 7-3), 16% home (maybe if 8-2), 3% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 85.0