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Rankings
#103 of 105 in Division 4
#26 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #105 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #81 in D4 (-490 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/23 W 28-0 H #687 New Miami (2-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 18 (80%), perf. rating 67
08/29 W 14-6 H #688 Lockland (0-4) D7 R28, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 36
09/06 L 32-6 A #618 Clark Montessori (1-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 13 (23%), perf. rating 20
09/13 L 26-8 H #563 Belmont (2-2) D2 R8, pick: L by 26 (6%), perf. rating 41
09/19 A #696 East Clinton (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 18 (87%)
09/26 A #586 Summit Country Day (2-2) D6 R24, pick: L by 26 (5%)
10/03 H #440 St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 36 (1%)
10/11 H #518 Dayton Christian (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/18 A #443 Cincinnati College Prep (2-2) D7 R28, pick: L by 37 (1%)
10/23 A #558 Shroder (1-3) D4 R16, pick: L by 29 (3%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
2.92 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 2.97 ( 2.21-12.00) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Lose: 2.16 ( 1.81- 7.81) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 5W: 7.61 ( 5.84-10.39) 4% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(12%) 4W: 5.08 ( 3.42- 8.22) out, proj. out
(74%) 3W: 2.92 ( 2.21- 6.56) out, proj. out
(12%) 2W: 2.16 ( 1.81- 3.58) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WLLWLL: 5.94 ( 4.68- 7.36) out
( 1%) WLLLWL: 5.84 ( 4.43- 8.22) out
( 3%) WLLLLW: 5.08 ( 3.92- 6.40) out
( 5%) WWLLLL: 4.53 ( 3.42- 6.10) out
(73%) WLLLLL: 2.92 ( 2.21- 5.14) out
(12%) LLLLLL: 2.16 ( 1.81- 3.58) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 37.9, #668, D4 #103), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (2-1, 38.4, #668, D4 #103), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (2-0, 41.7, #658, D4 #104), 5% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (1-0, 41.1, #666, D4 #104), 7% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 34.7, #680, D4 #104), 3% (bubble if 8-2), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Last season 24.6