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Rankings
#87 of 106 in Division 5
#21 of 26 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #104 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #46 in D5 (-119 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 W 50-6 A #694 Dayton Stivers (0-4) D5 R20, pick: W by 15 (75%), perf. rating 71
08/29 W 46-13 H #689 Millersport (2-5) D7 R27, pick: W by 25 (90%), perf. rating 65
09/04 W 20-6 A #645 Norwood (1-6) D4 R16, pick: W by 17 (83%), perf. rating 65
09/12 W 36-20 H #583 Clark Montessori (3-4) D4 R16, pick: L by 18 (14%), perf. rating 85
09/17 W 42-6 H #692 East Clinton (0-7) D5 R20, pick: W by 37 (99%), perf. rating 63
09/26 W 32-6 H #624 Woodward (Cincy) (1-6) D4 R16, pick: W by 21 (91%), perf. rating 89
10/02 L 30-7 A #435 St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (6-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 22 (8%), perf. rating 57
10/09 A #436 Dayton Christian (4-3) D5 R20, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/15 H #344 Cincinnati College Prep (7-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 30 (2%)
10/24 H #658 Shroder (1-5) D4 R16, pick: W by 26 (96%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
8.93 Harbin points (divisor 96)
#11 seed in R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
54% (bubble if 7-3), 6% home (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 11.72 ( 9.45-17.49) 100% in, 47% home, 2% bye, proj. #9 (#3-#12), Greeneview (4-3) 21%
Lose: 8.93 ( 6.71-15.16) 51% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#4-out), Waynesville (5-2) 28%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 8W: 12.03 (10.58-15.16) 100% in, 58% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Greeneview (4-3) 21%
(87%) 7W: 8.93 ( 7.83-12.84) 51% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Waynesville (5-2) 29%
( 4%) 6W: 7.96 ( 6.71- 9.73) 8% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWW: 13.18 (11.98-15.16) 100% in, 92% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Carlisle (4-3) 21%
( 6%) WLW: 11.67 (10.57-13.86) 100% in, 45% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Greeneview (4-3) 22%
(87%) LLW: 8.93 ( 7.83-11.11) 51% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Waynesville (5-2) 29%
( 4%) LLL: 7.96 ( 6.71- 9.73) 8% in, proj. out (#10-out), Waynesville (5-2) 37%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (6-1, 66.1, #572, D5 #87), 54% (bubble if 7-3), 6% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 7-3
Week 6 (6-0, 65.9, #575, D5 #88), 41% (bubble if 7-3), 10% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 7-3
Week 5 (5-0, 63.6, #587, D5 #90), 33% (bubble if 7-3), 8% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 7-3
Week 4 (4-0, 64.1, #582, D5 #86), 44% (bubble if 7-3), 12% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 7-3
Week 3 (3-0, 53.1, #620, D5 #93), 12% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 51.2, #631, D5 #94), 16% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 48.0, #644, D5 #97), 20% (bubble if 7-3), 6% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 34.6, #673, D5 #101), 9% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 38.7