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Rankings
#101 of 105 in Division 5
#24 of 26 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #104 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #89 in D5 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 A #692 Dayton Stivers (0-0) D5 R20, pick: W by 15 (75%)
08/29 H #696 Millersport (0-0) D7 R27, pick: W by 22 (87%)
09/04 A #678 Norwood (0-0) D4 R16, pick: W by 2 (54%)
09/10 H #617 Clark Montessori (0-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 20 (12%)
09/17 H #689 East Clinton (0-0) D5 R20, pick: W by 17 (86%)
09/26 H #648 Woodward (Cincy) (0-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 11 (24%)
10/02 A #444 St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (0-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 40 (1%)
10/09 A #580 Dayton Christian (0-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 28 (3%)
10/15 H #388 Cincinnati College Prep (0-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 42 (1%)
10/24 H #565 Shroder (0-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 28 (3%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
4.17 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
10% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.79 ( 0.45-23.19) 12% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#1-out), Preble Shawnee (0-0) 8%
Lose: 1.76 ( 0.00-18.90) 2% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Preble Shawnee (0-0) 9%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 9W: 14.25 (10.01-22.08) 99% in, 70% home, 16% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 17%
( 4%) 8W: 11.17 ( 6.38-16.93) 79% in, 27% home, 2% bye, proj. #10 (#1-out), Greeneview (0-0) 8%
( 7%) 7W: 9.01 ( 5.07-15.37) 44% in, 6% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Preble Shawnee (0-0) 8%
(11%) 6W: 7.04 ( 3.56-13.36) 14% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Preble Shawnee (0-0) 11%
(15%) 5W: 5.58 ( 2.65-11.29) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Greeneview (0-0) 10%
(18%) 4W: 4.17 ( 1.75-10.18) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(17%) 3W: 3.02 ( 1.25- 8.98) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(13%) 2W: 1.91 ( 0.80- 6.41) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 9%) 1W: 0.85 ( 0.35- 4.54) out, proj. out
( 4%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
Preble Shawnee (0-0) 8%
Williamsburg (0-0) 7%
Greeneview (0-0) 7%
Mariemont (0-0) 5%
Miami East (0-0) 5%
Most likely second round opponents
Brookville (0-0) 13%
Preble Shawnee (0-0) 12%
Graham Local (0-0) 9%
Williamsburg (0-0) 7%
West Liberty-Salem (0-0) 7%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 19.3, #689, D5 #103), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Last season 38.7