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Rankings
#29 of 107 in Division 7
#9 of 27 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #37 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #56 in D7 (-165 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 16-12 A #506 Cedarville (2-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 12 (71%), perf. rating 75
08/29 W 34-28 A #536 Eastmoor Academy (2-2) D3 R11, pick: L by 9 (33%), perf. rating 85
09/05 W 30-0 H #547 Dunbar (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 115
09/12 L 24-22 H #510 Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 20 (88%), perf. rating 74
09/19 A #531 Meadowdale (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 10 (73%)
09/26 A #427 KIPP Columbus (0-4) D4 R15, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/03 A #518 Dayton Christian (3-1) D6 R24, pick: W by 8 (70%)
10/09 A #558 Shroder (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 14 (82%)
10/18 H #668 Gamble Montessori (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 37 (99%)
10/25 H #703 Dayton Stivers (0-1) D6 R24, pick: W by 49 (99%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
15.43 Harbin points (divisor 96)
#4 seed in R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 80% home (maybe if 5-5), 29% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.43 ( 6.11-20.05) 99% in, 91% home, 39% bye, proj. #5 (#2-out), bye 39%
Lose: 10.71 ( 3.84-16.42) 96% in, 51% home, 4% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Notre Dame (4-0) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
(23%) 8W: 16.71 (12.55-20.05) 100% in, 99% home, 67% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#9), bye 67%
(32%) 7W: 15.43 ( 9.91-19.29) 100% in, 98% home, 40% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#11), bye 40%
(24%) 6W: 12.79 ( 6.80-17.43) 99% in, 84% home, 5% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), Cedarville (2-2) 16%
(14%) 5W: 10.00 ( 5.94-13.86) 99% in, 33% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Notre Dame (4-0) 20%
( 6%) 4W: 7.31 ( 4.24-10.22) 83% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 23%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(23%) WWWWWW: 16.71 (12.55-20.05) 100% in, 99% home, 67% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#9), bye 67%
(23%) WLWWWW: 15.95 (11.58-19.29) 100% in, 99% home, 51% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#9), bye 51%
( 4%) WLWLWW: 13.32 ( 9.83-15.76) 100% in, 90% home, 6% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Cedarville (2-2) 15%
( 8%) LLWWWW: 13.26 (10.45-16.29) 100% in, 93% home, 7% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Cedarville (2-2) 17%
( 9%) WLLWWW: 12.43 ( 8.57-15.19) 100% in, 84% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Notre Dame (4-0) 18%
( 5%) WLLLWW: 9.95 ( 6.82-12.34) 99% in, 30% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Notre Dame (4-0) 20%
( 6%) LLLWWW: 9.79 ( 6.98-13.33) 99% in, 29% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Notre Dame (4-0) 22%
( 5%) LLLLWW: 7.26 ( 4.24-10.18) 82% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 23%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 87.0, #443, D7 #29), likely in, 80% home (maybe if 5-5), 29% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 92.5, #413, D7 #27), likely in, 95% home (maybe if 5-5), 72% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 87.1, #454, D7 #31), 97% (bubble if 3-7), 87% home (maybe if 4-6), 60% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #3 at 7-3
Week 1 (0-1, 81.8, #500, D7 #37), 75% (bubble if 4-6), 52% home (maybe if 5-5), 24% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 87.7, #468, D7 #34), 78% (bubble if 4-6), 59% home (maybe if 6-4), 35% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 6-4
Last season 94.4