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Rankings
#90 of 102 in Division 4
#23 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #100 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #87 in D4 (-525 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 18-12 H #448 Aiken (2-5) D2 R8, pick: L by 31 (8%), perf. rating 76
08/28 L 17-8 H #490 Summit Country Day (4-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 4 (42%), perf. rating 67
09/04 W 39-0 A #655 Finneytown (0-6) D6 R24, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 99
09/12 L 36-20 A #572 Gamble Montessori (6-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 18 (86%), perf. rating 44
09/18 L 56-20 H #297 Hughes (7-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 31 (3%), perf. rating 54
09/26 W 28-12 A #690 Manchester (3-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 38 (99%), perf. rating 42
10/02 W 19-6 H #658 Shroder (1-5) D4 R16, pick: W by 24 (94%), perf. rating 56
10/09 A #231 North College Hill (6-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 40 (1%)
10/17 H #645 Norwood (1-6) D4 R16, pick: W by 22 (93%)
10/23 A #618 Cincinnati Country Day (3-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 6 (65%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
6.42 Harbin points (divisor 95)
out of R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
4% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 11.10 ( 7.96-12.07) 100% in, 1% home, proj. #10 (#8-#12), Oakwood (6-1) 38%
Lose: 6.26 ( 2.83- 8.31) 3% in, proj. out (#10-out), North College Hill (6-0) 41%
Based on eventual number of wins
(60%) 5W: 6.42 ( 5.78-11.10) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out), North College Hill (6-0) 42%
(35%) 4W: 4.64 ( 3.80- 7.96) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 4%) 3W: 3.36 ( 2.83- 4.72) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(60%) LWW: 6.42 ( 5.78- 8.31) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out), North College Hill (6-0) 42%
( 4%) LLW: 5.34 ( 4.44- 6.81) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Valley View (5-2) 100%
(31%) LWL: 4.33 ( 3.80- 6.49) out
( 4%) LLL: 3.36 ( 2.83- 4.72) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (3-4, 62.7, #583, D4 #90), 4% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 5-5
Week 6 (2-4, 61.2, #595, D4 #91), 4% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 5-5
Week 5 (1-4, 64.7, #583, D4 #91), 4% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 5-5
Week 4 (1-3, 64.5, #579, D4 #91), 5% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 73.0, #543, D4 #86), 37% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 2 (0-2, 61.5, #598, D4 #94), 16% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 66.1, #577, D4 #91), 33% (bubble if 6-4), 12% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 57.0, #617, D4 #94), 23% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 58.1