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Rankings
#95 of 106 in Division 5
#22 of 25 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #91 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #86 in D5 (-514 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/23 L 40-0 A #356 Aiken (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 35 (5%), perf. rating 45
08/29 L 17-6 A #586 Summit Country Day (2-2) D6 R24, pick: L by 20 (16%), perf. rating 50
09/06 W 32-6 H #668 Gamble Montessori (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 13 (77%), perf. rating 75
09/19 A #377 Hughes (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 34 (2%)
09/26 H #440 St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 26 (5%)
10/02 A #558 Shroder (1-3) D4 R16, pick: L by 15 (17%)
10/11 H #421 North College Hill (4-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 29 (3%)
10/17 A #655 Norwood (0-4) D5 R20, pick: W by 12 (79%)
10/24 H #510 Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 20 (9%)
Regular season projections
2-7 record
2.67 Harbin points (divisor 90)
out of R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
5% (bubble if 4-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.19 ( 4.28-21.44) 25% in, 10% home, 3% bye, proj. out (#1-out)
Lose: 2.67 ( 1.33-18.67) 4% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Miami East (3-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 5W: 12.94 (11.11-15.78) 100% in, 64% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Greeneview (2-2) 14%
( 6%) 4W: 9.00 ( 7.00-12.67) 43% in, 2% home, proj. out (#6-out), Miami East (3-1) 16%
(21%) 3W: 5.72 ( 3.89-10.67) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(50%) 2W: 2.67 ( 1.83- 7.17) out, proj. out
(21%) 1W: 1.78 ( 1.33- 3.22) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) LLWLWW: 8.61 ( 7.39-10.00) 24% in, proj. out (#9-out), Miami East (3-1) 22%
( 2%) LLLWWL: 7.33 ( 5.39- 8.61) 4% in, proj. out (#12-out), Miami East (3-1) 29%
( 2%) LWLLWL: 6.89 ( 6.06- 7.89) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 100%
( 7%) LLLLWW: 6.17 ( 4.78- 7.61) out
( 1%) LLLLLW: 5.28 ( 3.83- 6.33) out
( 9%) LLWLWL: 5.11 ( 3.89- 6.50) out
(46%) LLLLWL: 2.67 ( 1.83- 4.17) out
(21%) LLLLLL: 1.78 ( 1.33- 3.22) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-2, 57.1, #618, D5 #95), 5% (bubble if 4-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-7
Week 3 (1-2, 58.3, #612, D5 #93), 11% (bubble if 4-5), 3% home (maybe if 5-4), proj. out at 2-7
Week 2 (0-2, 52.8, #632, D5 #98), 9% (bubble if 4-5), 3% home (maybe if 5-4), proj. out at 2-7
Week 1 (0-1, 51.6, #634, D5 #96), 13% (likely needs 5-4), 6% home (maybe if 6-3), proj. out at 2-7
Week 0 (0-0, 54.3, #630, D5 #96), 17% (bubble if 5-4), 7% home (maybe if 6-3), 2% bye (maybe if 7-2), proj. out at 3-6
Last season 55.7