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Rankings
#103 of 106 in Division 5
#25 of 25 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #85 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #101 in D5 (-720 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 33-18 A #558 Shroder (1-3) D4 R16, pick: L by 33 (7%), perf. rating 50
08/29 L 36-0 H #435 Mariemont (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 31 (6%), perf. rating 34
09/05 L 42-6 H #394 Deer Park (4-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 34 (3%), perf. rating 41
09/12 L 56-0 H #203 Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 49 (1%), perf. rating 57
09/20 A #440 St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 35 (1%)
09/26 A #540 Bethel-Tate (0-4) D4 R16, pick: L by 28 (4%)
10/03 A #705 Fayetteville (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/10 H #510 Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 28 (3%)
10/17 H #618 Clark Montessori (1-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 12 (21%)
10/24 A #421 North College Hill (4-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 37 (1%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
0.35 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
unlikely to contend for playoffs
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.14 ( 3.38-10.49) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Lose: 0.35 ( 0.00-11.19) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 3W: 4.48 ( 2.21- 9.08) out, proj. out
(26%) 2W: 1.31 ( 0.85- 6.46) out, proj. out
(67%) 1W: 0.35 ( 0.35- 4.24) out, proj. out
( 2%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LLWLLW: 4.94 ( 2.77- 6.46) out
( 1%) LLWWWL: 4.48 ( 3.52- 5.90) out
( 2%) LLWWLL: 3.53 ( 2.22- 4.44) out
( 2%) LWWLWL: 2.71 ( 2.21- 4.13) out
( 3%) LWWLLL: 1.71 ( 0.85- 3.48) out
(21%) LLWLWL: 1.31 ( 1.31- 3.78) out
(67%) LLWLLL: 0.35 ( 0.35- 2.42) out
( 2%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 43.5, #655, D5 #103), unlikely to contend for playoffs, proj. out at 1-9
Week 3 (0-3, 38.0, #669, D5 #104), 1% (must have at least 2-8 for any chance), proj. out at 0-10
Week 2 (0-2, 38.2, #667, D5 #104), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 0-10
Week 1 (0-1, 43.5, #663, D5 #104), 2% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 0 (0-0, 38.2, #672, D5 #104), 2% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Last season 32.5