Region 16 home page
Region 16 projections
Region 16 playoff probabilities
Region 16 seeding probabilities
Eitel Region 16 page
Eitel team page
Team history page
Rankings
#62 of 105 in Division 4
#15 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #33 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #54 in D4 (-143 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 53-34 A #540 Bethel-Tate (0-4) D4 R16, pick: W by 14 (74%), perf. rating 104
08/29 L 28-12 A #242 Williamsburg (4-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 11 (29%), perf. rating 95
09/05 L 51-14 H #80 Indian Hill (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 32 (4%), perf. rating 88
09/12 W 53-20 H #558 Shroder (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 24 (92%), perf. rating 118
09/19 A #210 Roger Bacon (2-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 23 (8%)
09/26 A #172 Clinton-Massie (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/03 H #306 Goshen (3-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 7 (33%)
10/10 H #448 Western Brown (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 14 (82%)
10/17 A #332 Batavia (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 8 (30%)
10/24 H #292 Wilmington (3-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 9 (28%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
8.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
33% (likely needs 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.20 ( 6.10-24.60) 80% in, 34% home, 5% bye, proj. #10 (#2-out), Brookville (4-0) 15%
Lose: 7.95 ( 3.05-21.05) 29% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Wyoming (3-1) 21%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 19.10 (16.70-21.60) 100% in, 97% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Kenton Ridge (3-1) 14%
( 9%) 6W: 15.55 (12.80-19.20) 100% in, 32% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Brookville (4-0) 19%
(19%) 5W: 11.90 ( 9.20-16.75) 88% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Wyoming (3-1) 22%
(29%) 4W: 8.45 ( 5.70-13.95) 17% in, proj. out (#9-out), Wyoming (3-1) 29%
(30%) 3W: 5.40 ( 3.30- 9.70) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(11%) 2W: 4.75 ( 3.05- 6.25) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLWWWW: 18.62 (16.70-20.45) 100% in, 94% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Oakwood (4-0) 16%
( 5%) LLWWWW: 15.60 (13.80-17.65) 100% in, 28% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) 18%
( 6%) LLLWWW: 11.85 ( 9.65-14.10) 86% in, proj. #11 (#9-out), Wyoming (3-1) 21%
( 8%) LLLWLW: 8.75 ( 6.50-10.95) 19% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wyoming (3-1) 27%
( 9%) LLWWLL: 8.55 ( 6.80-11.60) 13% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wyoming (3-1) 34%
( 9%) LLLWWL: 7.95 ( 5.70-10.05) 8% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wyoming (3-1) 24%
(23%) LLLWLL: 5.40 ( 3.30- 7.60) out
(11%) LLLLLL: 4.75 ( 3.05- 6.25) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 98.9, #379, D4 #62), 33% (likely needs 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 93.0, #410, D4 #67), 18% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 93.5, #412, D4 #67), 28% (bubble if 5-5), 7% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 98.5, #369, D4 #57), 52% (bubble if 4-6), 29% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 94.0, #416, D4 #71), 40% (bubble if 5-5), 22% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 96.5