Region 16 home page
Region 16 projections
Region 16 playoff probabilities
Region 16 seeding probabilities
Eitel Region 16 page
Eitel team page
Team history page
Rankings
#68 of 101 in Division 4
#15 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #32 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #57 in D4 (-247 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 49-18 H #614 Bethel-Tate (0-4) D5 R20, pick: W by 23 (85%), perf. rating 99
08/28 L 34-14 H #212 Williamsburg (3-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 89
09/04 L 56-14 A #94 Indian Hill (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 41 (1%), perf. rating 80
09/11 L 36-19 A #209 Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 32 (3%), perf. rating 98
09/18 H #431 Purcell Marian (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 3 (56%)
09/25 H #230 Clinton-Massie (1-3) D4 R16, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/02 A #252 Goshen (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/09 A #403 Western Brown (1-3) D3 R12, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/16 H #503 Batavia (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/23 A #224 Wilmington (2-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 26 (4%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
5.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
16% (bubble if 4-6), 2% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.45 ( 3.15-19.40) 26% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Oakwood (4-0) 14%
Lose: 2.85 ( 0.45-15.70) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), North College Hill (3-0) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 6W: 14.10 (11.55-16.75) 100% in, 57% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Oakwood (4-0) 20%
( 8%) 5W: 10.50 ( 7.95-14.10) 94% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Oakwood (4-0) 16%
(22%) 4W: 7.30 ( 5.15-12.10) 26% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), North College Hill (3-0) 19%
(32%) 3W: 5.20 ( 3.10- 9.75) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out), North College Hill (3-0) 21%
(27%) 2W: 2.85 ( 1.45- 7.00) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 9%) 1W: 1.40 ( 0.45- 2.85) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLWWWW: 14.75 (12.90-16.75) 100% in, 55% home, proj. #8 (#5-#10), Oakwood (4-0) 22%
( 2%) WLWWWL: 11.50 ( 9.65-13.95) 96% in, 5% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), North College Hill (3-0) 15%
(15%) WLLWWL: 7.25 ( 5.35- 9.40) 16% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), North College Hill (3-0) 20%
(20%) WLLLWL: 5.25 ( 3.75- 7.25) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), North College Hill (3-0) 26%
( 5%) WLLLLL: 4.20 ( 3.15- 6.10) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) 100%
( 7%) LLLWWL: 4.15 ( 3.10- 6.10) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), North College Hill (3-0) 50%
(20%) LLLLWL: 2.40 ( 1.45- 3.95) out
( 9%) LLLLLL: 1.40 ( 0.45- 2.85) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 91.9, #424, D4 #68), 16% (bubble if 4-6), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 85.3, #462, D4 #75), 6% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (1-1, 85.8, #458, D4 #72), 5% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (1-0, 98.5, #380, D4 #57), 41% (bubble if 5-5), 22% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 93.4, #416, D4 #62), 33% (bubble if 5-5), 16% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 93.0