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Rankings
#59 of 102 in Division 4
#13 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #42 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #40 in D4 (-145 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 49-18 H #600 Bethel-Tate (2-5) D5 R20, pick: W by 23 (85%), perf. rating 103
08/28 L 34-14 H #235 Williamsburg (6-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 86
09/04 L 56-14 A #102 Indian Hill (5-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 41 (1%), perf. rating 78
09/11 L 36-19 A #180 Cinc. Hills Christian (6-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 32 (3%), perf. rating 102
09/18 W 28-14 H #473 Purcell Marian (4-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 3 (56%), perf. rating 103
09/25 W 41-37 H #333 Clinton-Massie (2-5) D4 R16, pick: L by 9 (28%), perf. rating 109
10/02 L 48-7 A #169 Goshen (7-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 22 (8%), perf. rating 68
10/09 A #379 Western Brown (2-5) D3 R12, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/16 H #541 Batavia (1-6) D3 R12, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/23 A #268 Wilmington (3-4) D4 R16, pick: L by 20 (9%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
7.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#11 seed in R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
83% (bubble if 3-7), 5% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.80 ( 7.75-14.60) 98% in, 12% home, proj. #10 (#8-out), Oakwood (6-1) 29%
Lose: 7.70 ( 5.55-12.40) 74% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), North College Hill (6-0) 38%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 6W: 12.55 (11.55-14.60) 100% in, 69% home, proj. #8 (#8-#10), Dunbar (3-3) 54%
(34%) 5W: 9.80 ( 8.80-13.00) 99% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Oakwood (6-1) 34%
(54%) 4W: 7.70 ( 6.60-10.90) 78% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), North College Hill (6-0) 40%
( 5%) 3W: 6.70 ( 5.55- 8.65) 24% in, proj. out (#10-out), North College Hill (6-0) 46%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 6%) WWW: 12.55 (11.55-14.60) 100% in, 69% home, proj. #8 (#8-#10), Dunbar (3-3) 54%
( 4%) LWW: 10.45 ( 9.40-12.40) 100% in, 5% home, proj. #10 (#8-#12), Oakwood (6-1) 37%
(30%) WWL: 9.80 ( 8.80-11.40) 99% in, proj. #11 (#9-out), Oakwood (6-1) 34%
( 2%) WLL: 8.75 ( 7.75- 9.95) 81% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), North College Hill (6-0) 41%
(52%) LWL: 7.70 ( 6.60-10.15) 77% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), North College Hill (6-0) 40%
( 5%) LLL: 6.70 ( 5.55- 8.65) 24% in, proj. out (#10-out), North College Hill (6-0) 46%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (3-4, 95.0, #399, D4 #59), 83% (bubble if 3-7), 5% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #11 at 4-6
Week 6 (3-3, 99.2, #373, D4 #55), 81% (bubble if 4-6), 6% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 5 (2-3, 96.9, #387, D4 #59), 41% (bubble if 4-6), 6% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 4 (1-3, 91.9, #424, D4 #68), 16% (bubble if 4-6), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 85.3, #462, D4 #75), 6% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (1-1, 85.8, #458, D4 #72), 5% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (1-0, 98.5, #380, D4 #57), 41% (bubble if 5-5), 22% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 93.4, #416, D4 #62), 33% (bubble if 5-5), 16% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 93.0