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Rankings
#47 of 107 in Division 6
#7 of 27 in Region 24
Strength of schedule #107 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #53 in D6 (-188 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 32-20 H #421 North College Hill (4-0) D5 R20, pick: W by 27 (89%), perf. rating 73
08/29 W 32-0 A #633 Finneytown (1-3) D5 R20, pick: L by 3 (43%), perf. rating 104
09/06 W 28-21 H #558 Shroder (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 22 (89%), perf. rating 79
09/12 W 30-6 H #586 Summit Country Day (2-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 18 (86%), perf. rating 98
09/20 H #655 Norwood (0-4) D5 R20, pick: W by 35 (99%)
09/26 A #618 Clark Montessori (1-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 26 (95%)
10/03 A #668 Gamble Montessori (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/10 A #687 New Miami (2-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 41 (99%)
10/17 A #661 Miami Valley Christian (1-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 34 (99%)
10/25 H #688 Lockland (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 43 (99%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
13.75 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#4 seed in R24 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 54% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.60 ( 9.41-16.22) 100% in, 99% home, 54% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#11), bye 54%
Lose: 12.59 ( 8.96-14.41) 100% in, 98% home, 25% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), bye 25%
Based on eventual number of wins
(89%) 9W: 13.75 (12.39-16.22) 100% home, 57% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 57%
(10%) 8W: 12.14 (10.72-14.91) 100% in, 99% home, 26% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 26%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(89%) WWWWWW: 13.75 (12.39-16.22) 100% home, 57% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 57%
( 5%) WLWWWW: 12.14 (10.77-14.26) 100% in, 99% home, 28% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 28%
( 2%) WWWWLW: 11.68 (10.72-13.35) 100% in, 98% home, 19% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), bye 19%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 87.7, #440, D6 #47), appears locked in and likely home, 54% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 9-1
Week 3 (2-1, 83.0, #483, D6 #54), likely in, 98% home (maybe if 6-4), 56% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 9-1
Week 2 (1-1, 85.8, #460, D6 #50), likely in, 93% home (maybe if 7-3), 43% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 9-1
Week 1 (0-1, 70.4, #557, D6 #70), 80% (bubble if 5-5), 55% home (maybe if 6-4), 17% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 87.0, #474, D6 #50), 95% (bubble if 5-5), 86% home (maybe if 6-4), 55% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 9-1
Last season 93.1