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Rankings
#53 of 108 in Division 6
#13 of 27 in Region 24
Strength of schedule #105 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #50 in D6 (-106 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 18-13 A #525 Northridge (2-5) D4 R16, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 86
08/28 W 39-8 H #655 Finneytown (0-6) D6 R24, pick: W by 28 (92%), perf. rating 83
09/04 W 54-0 A #658 Shroder (1-5) D4 R16, pick: W by 29 (95%), perf. rating 103
09/11 W 21-20 H #439 Dunbar (3-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 9 (70%), perf. rating 88
09/18 W 35-0 A #645 Norwood (1-6) D4 R16, pick: W by 37 (99%), perf. rating 96
09/25 L 38-36 A #490 Summit Country Day (4-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 3 (58%), perf. rating 82
10/02 W 30-7 H #572 Gamble Montessori (6-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 22 (92%), perf. rating 98
10/10 H #693 New Miami (0-7) D7 R28, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/17 H #597 Miami Valley Christian (4-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/24 A #694 Dayton Stivers (0-4) D5 R20, pick: W by 49 (99%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
16.50 Harbin points (divisor 94)
#6 seed in R24 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 89% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.44 (12.21-19.26) 99% in, 89% home, 2% bye, proj. #6 (#2-out), Covington (4-3) 24%
Based on eventual number of wins
(95%) 9W: 16.50 (14.10-19.26) 100% in, 93% home, 2% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#12), Covington (4-3) 25%
( 5%) 8W: 14.13 (12.21-17.64) 97% in, 27% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Huntington (5-2) 21%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(95%) WWW: 16.50 (14.10-19.26) 100% in, 93% home, 2% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#12), Covington (4-3) 25%
( 3%) WLW: 13.62 (12.21-15.19) 96% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Huntington (5-2) 27%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (6-1, 88.9, #435, D6 #53), likely in, 89% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye, proj. #6 at 9-1
Week 6 (5-1, 86.7, #455, D6 #56), 98% (bubble if 7-3), 84% home (likely needs 9-1), 5% bye, proj. #6 at 9-1
Week 5 (5-0, 87.6, #444, D6 #53), likely in, 92% home (likely needs 9-1), 41% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #4 at 10-0
Week 4 (4-0, 86.4, #456, D6 #58), 98% (bubble if 7-3), 86% home (maybe if 8-2), 47% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #3 at 10-0
Week 3 (3-0, 90.4, #428, D6 #49), 98% (bubble if 6-3), 87% home (maybe if 7-2), 28% bye (maybe if 9-0), proj. #5 at 9-0
Week 2 (2-0, 90.6, #421, D6 #50), 98% (bubble if 6-4), 88% home (maybe if 8-2), 45% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #3 at 10-0
Week 1 (1-0, 92.2, #419, D6 #50), 96% (bubble if 6-4), 86% home (maybe if 7-3), 50% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 89.0, #444, D6 #53), 90% (bubble if 5-5), 72% home (maybe if 7-3), 35% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #2 at 9-1
Last season 88.3