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Rankings
#56 of 108 in Division 6
#13 of 27 in Region 24
Strength of schedule #105 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #51 in D6 (-113 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 18-13 A #530 Northridge (2-6) D4 R16, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 84
08/28 W 39-8 H #646 Finneytown (0-7) D6 R24, pick: W by 28 (92%), perf. rating 87
09/04 W 54-0 A #654 Shroder (1-6) D4 R16, pick: W by 29 (95%), perf. rating 106
09/11 W 21-20 H #456 Dunbar (4-4) D4 R16, pick: W by 9 (70%), perf. rating 86
09/18 W 35-0 A #666 Norwood (1-7) D4 R16, pick: W by 37 (99%), perf. rating 90
09/25 L 38-36 A #501 Summit Country Day (4-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 3 (58%), perf. rating 79
10/02 W 30-7 H #579 Gamble Montessori (6-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 22 (92%), perf. rating 97
10/10 H #693 New Miami (0-7) D7 R28, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/17 H #581 Miami Valley Christian (5-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/24 A #694 Dayton Stivers (0-5) D5 R20, pick: W by 49 (99%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
16.66 Harbin points (divisor 94)
#5 seed in R24 playoffs
Playoff chances now
96% (bubble if 8-2), 91% home (likely needs 9-1), 23% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.50 (11.82-18.46) 96% in, 91% home, 23% bye, proj. #5 (#2-out), Covington (5-3) 26%
Lose: 16.15 (12.40-17.16) 90% in, 76% home, 7% bye, proj. #7 (#4-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(92%) 9W: 16.66 (14.95-18.46) 100% in, 98% home, 25% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#11), Covington (5-3) 26%
( 8%) 8W: 13.54 (12.16-17.16) 52% in, 17% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#4-out), Huntington (5-3) 19%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(92%) WWW: 16.66 (14.95-18.46) 100% in, 98% home, 25% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#11), Covington (5-3) 26%
( 6%) WLW: 13.28 (12.16-14.66) 39% in, proj. out (#9-out), Huntington (5-3) 27%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (6-1, 88.9, #435, D6 #53), likely in, 89% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye, proj. #6 at 9-1
Week 6 (5-1, 86.7, #455, D6 #56), 98% (bubble if 7-3), 84% home (likely needs 9-1), 5% bye, proj. #6 at 9-1
Week 5 (5-0, 87.6, #444, D6 #53), likely in, 92% home (likely needs 9-1), 41% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #4 at 10-0
Week 4 (4-0, 86.4, #456, D6 #58), 98% (bubble if 7-3), 86% home (maybe if 8-2), 47% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #3 at 10-0
Week 3 (3-0, 90.4, #428, D6 #49), 98% (bubble if 6-3), 87% home (maybe if 7-2), 28% bye (maybe if 9-0), proj. #5 at 9-0
Week 2 (2-0, 90.6, #421, D6 #50), 98% (bubble if 6-4), 88% home (maybe if 8-2), 45% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #3 at 10-0
Week 1 (1-0, 92.2, #419, D6 #50), 96% (bubble if 6-4), 86% home (maybe if 7-3), 50% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 89.0, #444, D6 #53), 90% (bubble if 5-5), 72% home (maybe if 7-3), 35% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #2 at 9-1
Last season 88.3