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Rankings
#65 of 101 in Division 4
#14 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #83 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #90 in D4 (-825 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 32-20 A #334 Mechanicsburg (1-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 13 (28%), perf. rating 88
08/28 L 28-26 H #392 Circleville (1-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 12 (73%), perf. rating 91
09/04 H #658 Thurgood Marshall (0-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 40 (99%)
09/11 H #354 Heath (1-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 6 (36%)
09/18 A #624 Shroder (0-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 31 (97%)
09/25 H #561 Hillsboro (0-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/02 H #413 McClain (2-0) D4 R16, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/09 A #138 Chillicothe (2-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/16 A #151 Jackson (1-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/23 H #345 Miami Trace (1-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 7 (32%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
2.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
29% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 2.62 ( 0.55- 6.02) 29% in, 6% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Valley View (1-1) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 7W: 4.95 ( 4.66- 5.36) 100% in, 85% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Dunbar (1-0) 10%
(16%) 6W: 4.08 ( 3.72- 4.50) 96% in, 21% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Valley View (1-1) 11%
(25%) 5W: 3.31 ( 2.94- 3.80) 44% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Valley View (1-1) 15%
(27%) 4W: 2.55 ( 2.33- 3.08) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(23%) 3W: 1.84 ( 1.64- 2.28) out, proj. out
( 6%) 2W: 1.24 ( 1.10- 1.46) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(13%) WWWWWLLW: 4.05 ( 3.71- 4.50) 96% in, 20% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Valley View (1-1) 11%
( 9%) WLWWWLLW: 3.33 ( 3.11- 3.62) 50% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Valley View (1-1) 15%
( 9%) WWWWWLLL: 3.27 ( 3.00- 3.57) 45% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Valley View (1-1) 13%
( 5%) WLWWLLLW: 2.55 ( 2.35- 2.80) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Kenton Ridge (1-1) 100%
(14%) WLWWWLLL: 2.54 ( 2.35- 2.85) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), London (1-1) 29%
( 5%) WWWWLLLL: 2.52 ( 2.33- 2.88) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Urbana (2-0) 100%
(18%) WLWWLLLL: 1.82 ( 1.65- 2.10) out
( 4%) WLWLLLLL: 1.24 ( 1.09- 1.44) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (0-2, 93.0, #409, D4 #65), 24% (bubble if 5-5), 5% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 98.6, #378, D4 #56), 52% (bubble if 5-5), 21% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 100.2, #366, D4 #55), 48% (bubble if 5-5), 25% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 104.6