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Rankings
#56 of 102 in Division 4
#12 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #41 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #71 in D4 (-358 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 32-20 A #208 Mechanicsburg (6-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 13 (28%), perf. rating 106
08/28 L 28-26 H #397 Circleville (4-3) D4 R15, pick: W by 12 (73%), perf. rating 90
09/04 W 46-0 H #650 Thurgood Marshall (1-6) D3 R12, pick: W by 40 (99%), perf. rating 102
09/11 L 58-28 H #243 Heath (5-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 8 (32%), perf. rating 70
09/18 L 28-14 A #281 West Jefferson (6-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 20 (11%), perf. rating 93
09/25 W 61-55 H #554 Hillsboro (0-7) D3 R12, pick: W by 26 (95%), perf. rating 77
10/02 W 41-6 H #528 McClain (4-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 6 (65%), perf. rating 126
10/09 A #163 Chillicothe (6-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 29 (3%)
10/16 A #184 Jackson (4-3) D3 R11, pick: L by 28 (3%)
10/23 H #197 Miami Trace (6-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 24 (6%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
4.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
8% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.90 ( 8.35-16.90) 79% in, 7% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), North College Hill (6-0) 24%
Lose: 4.20 ( 4.15-13.10) 6% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), North College Hill (6-0) 39%
Based on eventual number of wins
(10%) 4W: 8.90 ( 7.30- 9.55) 70% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), North College Hill (6-0) 39%
(89%) 3W: 4.20 ( 4.15- 5.90) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) LLW: 8.95 ( 8.90- 9.55) 87% in, proj. #11 (#9-out), North College Hill (6-0) 40%
( 2%) WLL: 8.40 ( 8.35- 9.55) 73% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), North College Hill (6-0) 33%
( 3%) LWL: 7.35 ( 7.30- 8.45) 36% in, proj. out (#10-out), North College Hill (6-0) 44%
(89%) LLL: 4.20 ( 4.15- 5.90) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (3-4, 95.2, #396, D4 #56), 8% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 6 (2-4, 89.5, #428, D4 #71), 5% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 5 (1-4, 92.8, #412, D4 #68), 8% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 4 (1-3, 91.7, #426, D4 #70), 10% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 95.1, #400, D4 #66), 25% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 93.0, #409, D4 #65), 24% (bubble if 5-5), 5% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 98.6, #378, D4 #56), 52% (bubble if 5-5), 21% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 100.2, #366, D4 #55), 48% (bubble if 5-5), 25% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 104.6