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Rankings
#31 of 107 in Division 6
#14 of 26 in Region 22
Strength of schedule #24 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #49 in D6 (-147 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 42-0 H #34 Liberty Center (4-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 40 (3%), perf. rating 95
08/29 L 29-27 A #344 Otsego (2-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 103
09/05 L 35-27 H #185 Archbold (3-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 17 (17%), perf. rating 112
09/12 W 48-6 H #592 Hicksville (1-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 35 (98%), perf. rating 123
09/19 A #247 Fairview (Sherwood) (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 11 (25%)
09/26 A #594 Antwerp (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 33 (98%)
10/03 H #519 Wayne Trace (0-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 28 (96%)
10/10 A #549 Ayersville (0-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 28 (97%)
10/17 H #282 Paulding (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 2 (45%)
10/24 A #420 Edgerton (4-0) D7 R26, pick: W by 12 (79%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
7.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R22 playoffs
Playoff chances now
45% (likely needs 6-4), 14% home (likely needs 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.10 ( 6.05-15.45) 90% in, 53% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-1) 12%
Lose: 7.65 ( 0.85-12.35) 30% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
(13%) 7W: 15.20 (15.00-15.45) 100% in, 93% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Seneca East (3-1) 14%
(31%) 6W: 11.25 (10.85-14.50) 91% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-1) 13%
(35%) 5W: 7.65 ( 7.40-13.35) 11% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Archbold (3-1) 14%
(17%) 4W: 4.70 ( 4.60-10.00) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 3%) 3W: 3.45 ( 2.85- 6.10) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(13%) WWWWWW: 15.20 (15.00-15.45) 100% in, 93% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Seneca East (3-1) 14%
( 2%) WWWWWL: 11.95 (11.50-13.00) 98% in, 16% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Seneca East (3-1) 12%
( 7%) WWWWLW: 11.40 (11.15-12.60) 91% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Paulding (4-0) 15%
(22%) LWWWWW: 11.10 (10.85-12.35) 90% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-1) 14%
( 5%) LWWWWL: 8.10 ( 7.70- 9.55) 17% in, proj. out (#10-out), Patrick Henry (4-0) 18%
(26%) LWWWLW: 7.60 ( 7.40- 8.90) 6% in, proj. out (#10-out), Paulding (4-0) 20%
(13%) LWWWLL: 4.65 ( 4.60- 6.15) out
( 1%) LWLWLL: 3.10 ( 3.05- 4.35) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 107.1, #318, D6 #31), 45% (likely needs 6-4), 14% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (0-3, 106.1, #328, D6 #29), 57% (bubble if 5-5), 19% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (0-2, 103.3, #334, D6 #30), 60% (bubble if 5-5), 36% home (maybe if 6-4), 10% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 103.8, #333, D6 #26), 66% (bubble if 5-5), 49% home (maybe if 6-4), 27% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 104.8, #316, D6 #20), 68% (bubble if 5-5), 47% home (maybe if 6-4), 24% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Last season 103.6