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Rankings
#37 of 104 in Division 7
#13 of 26 in Region 26
Strength of schedule #23 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #47 in D7 (-25 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 47-0 H #148 Delta (2-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 35 (5%), perf. rating 66
08/28 L 33-14 H #180 Patrick Henry (2-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 44 (1%), perf. rating 95
09/04 A #617 Toledo Christian (1-1) D7 R26, pick: W by 19 (86%)
09/11 A #367 Wayne Trace (1-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 23 (9%)
09/18 A #226 Fairview (Sherwood) (1-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 34 (2%)
09/25 H #293 Paulding (2-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/02 A #611 Edgerton (0-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 18 (88%)
10/09 H #649 Hicksville (0-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 30 (98%)
10/16 A #386 Tinora (0-2) D6 R22, pick: L by 21 (8%)
10/23 H #589 Antwerp (0-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 15 (84%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
1.68 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R26 playoffs
Playoff chances now
20% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 1.68 ( 0.42- 4.20) 23% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Edon (2-0) 17%
Lose: 0.80 ( 0.00- 3.60) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 6W: 2.83 ( 2.64- 3.22) 97% in, 6% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Mohawk (1-1) 19%
(16%) 5W: 2.22 ( 2.07- 2.63) 71% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Edon (2-0) 18%
(41%) 4W: 1.68 ( 1.58- 2.08) 6% in, proj. out (#10-out), Edon (2-0) 31%
(25%) 3W: 1.23 ( 1.16- 1.54) out, proj. out
( 9%) 2W: 0.80 ( 0.74- 1.19) out, proj. out
( 3%) 1W: 0.35 ( 0.35- 0.58) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WLLWWWLW: 2.33 ( 2.19- 2.56) 75% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Edon (2-0) 20%
( 4%) WWLLWWLW: 2.21 ( 2.07- 2.35) 82% in, proj. #11 (#9-out), Montpelier (2-0) 17%
( 8%) WLLLWWWW: 2.19 ( 2.08- 2.38) 62% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Edon (2-0) 22%
(36%) WLLLWWLW: 1.68 ( 1.57- 1.93) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out), Edon (2-0) 29%
( 8%) WLLLLWLW: 1.26 ( 1.16- 1.43) out
(10%) WLLLWWLL: 1.23 ( 1.16- 1.40) out
( 4%) LLLLWWLW: 1.19 ( 1.16- 1.30) out
( 2%) LLLLWWLL: 0.73 ( 0.73- 0.84) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (0-2, 77.6, #512, D7 #37), 20% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 68.0, #574, D7 #51), 13% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 71.6, #545, D7 #44), 21% (bubble if 5-5), 7% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 75.9