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Rankings
#61 of 107 in Division 6
#19 of 26 in Region 22
Strength of schedule #25 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #78 in D6 (-442 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 41-0 H #139 New Bremen (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 24 (14%), perf. rating 70
08/29 L 25-21 A #543 Spencerville (1-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 69
09/05 L 41-20 H #277 Crestview (Convoy) (3-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 22 (11%), perf. rating 78
09/12 L 39-7 H #282 Paulding (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 23 (9%), perf. rating 62
09/19 A #420 Edgerton (4-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 18 (13%)
09/26 H #592 Hicksville (1-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/03 A #318 Tinora (1-3) D6 R22, pick: L by 28 (4%)
10/10 A #594 Antwerp (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 12 (79%)
10/17 H #247 Fairview (Sherwood) (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/24 A #549 Ayersville (0-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 3 (58%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
1.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R22 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.60 ( 1.75-12.00) 2% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Lose: 2.25 ( 0.00- 9.50) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 5W: 8.75 ( 7.40-10.55) 13% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(10%) 4W: 5.65 ( 4.60- 9.05) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(35%) 3W: 3.10 ( 3.00- 6.80) out, proj. out
(31%) 2W: 1.95 ( 1.45- 5.65) out, proj. out
(17%) 1W: 0.85 ( 0.40- 3.75) out, proj. out
( 5%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWLWWW: 6.80 ( 6.05- 7.60) out
( 7%) WWLWLW: 5.65 ( 5.50- 7.30) out
(30%) LWLWLW: 3.10 ( 3.05- 4.25) out
( 6%) LWLLLW: 2.00 ( 1.65- 3.05) out
(19%) LWLWLL: 1.95 ( 1.90- 3.90) out
( 9%) LWLLLL: 0.85 ( 0.85- 2.00) out
( 6%) LLLWLL: 0.70 ( 0.70- 1.90) out
( 5%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 76.7, #519, D6 #61), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (0-3, 78.2, #507, D6 #59), 4% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 84.0, #472, D6 #53), 16% (bubble if 5-5), 7% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 86.8, #460, D6 #47), 29% (bubble if 5-5), 16% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 95.1, #401, D6 #36), 51% (bubble if 5-5), 31% home (maybe if 7-3), 12% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 6-4
Last season 94.2