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Rankings
#100 of 105 in Division 4
#27 of 28 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #90 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #98 in D4 (-778 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 50-12 A #364 Waterford (3-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 13 (28%), perf. rating 46
08/29 L 48-8 H #164 Unioto (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 43 (2%), perf. rating 68
09/05 L 10-0 A #478 Trimble (3-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 10 (29%), perf. rating 69
09/12 L 36-6 A #577 Meigs (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 14 (80%), perf. rating 24
09/19 H #250 Athens (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 41 (1%)
09/26 A #608 Alexander (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/03 H #544 Northwest (McDermott) (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 15 (17%)
10/10 H #685 River Valley (Bidwell) (0-4) D5 R19, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/17 A #248 Nelsonville-York (4-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 43 (1%)
10/24 H #653 Wellston (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 13 (80%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
2.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
unlikely to contend for playoffs
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.25 ( 4.70-17.30) 11% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Lose: 2.55 ( 0.00-11.90) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(10%) 4W: 6.55 ( 5.25-11.80) out, proj. out
(28%) 3W: 4.25 ( 3.50- 8.15) out, proj. out
(41%) 2W: 2.15 ( 1.80- 6.55) out, proj. out
(18%) 1W: 0.80 ( 0.45- 2.75) out, proj. out
( 3%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 9%) LWWWLW: 6.50 ( 5.25- 8.90) out
( 6%) LLWWLW: 4.40 ( 3.50- 6.20) out
(20%) LWLWLW: 4.25 ( 3.90- 6.20) out
( 4%) LWLWLL: 2.90 ( 2.10- 4.30) out
(34%) LLLWLW: 2.15 ( 1.80- 3.60) out
( 3%) LLLLLW: 1.35 ( 0.90- 2.25) out
(14%) LLLWLL: 0.80 ( 0.45- 2.25) out
( 3%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 55.2, #627, D4 #100), unlikely to contend for playoffs, proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (0-3, 70.3, #560, D4 #94), 2% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 71.1, #561, D4 #92), 9% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 68.2, #573, D4 #95), 10% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 80.9, #511, D4 #86), 39% (bubble if 6-4), 22% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 73.8