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Rankings
#102 of 106 in Division 5
#25 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #96 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #99 in D5 (-700 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 26-14 H #676 Oak Hill (0-4) D5 R19, pick: W by 17 (78%), perf. rating 50
08/29 L 50-8 A #452 Piketon (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 29 (7%), perf. rating 25
09/05 L 24-6 A #589 South Point (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 15 (20%), perf. rating 39
09/12 L 40-0 H #478 Trimble (3-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 27 (5%), perf. rating 20
09/19 A #608 Alexander (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 17 (14%)
09/26 H #685 River Valley (Bidwell) (0-4) D5 R19, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/03 A #248 Nelsonville-York (4-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 47 (1%)
10/10 H #250 Athens (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 46 (1%)
10/17 H #577 Meigs (1-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 20 (9%)
10/24 A #627 Vinton County (0-4) D4 R15, pick: L by 13 (20%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
1.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
unlikely to contend for playoffs
Depending on the next game
Win: 3.85 ( 1.65-15.20) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Lose: 1.25 ( 0.45- 9.45) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 5W: 6.60 ( 5.80- 9.85) out, proj. out
( 8%) 4W: 4.50 ( 3.25- 8.85) out, proj. out
(26%) 3W: 2.65 ( 1.85- 6.80) out, proj. out
(51%) 2W: 1.25 ( 0.90- 5.85) out, proj. out
(12%) 1W: 0.45 ( 0.45- 1.70) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWLLWW: 6.60 ( 5.80- 8.00) out
( 3%) WWLLLW: 4.35 ( 3.95- 5.80) out
( 3%) LWLLWW: 4.05 ( 3.25- 5.95) out
( 5%) LWLLWL: 3.10 ( 2.30- 4.60) out
( 7%) WWLLLL: 3.02 ( 2.55- 5.35) out
(13%) LWLLLW: 2.20 ( 1.85- 4.00) out
(48%) LWLLLL: 1.25 ( 0.90- 2.70) out
(12%) LLLLLL: 0.45 ( 0.45- 1.70) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 43.9, #653, D5 #102), unlikely to contend for playoffs, proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (1-2, 51.5, #637, D5 #99), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 55.8, #615, D5 #93), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (1-0, 61.8, #598, D5 #92), 8% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 61.4, #602, D5 #90), 12% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 62.2