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Region 19 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#97 of 105 in Division 5
#25 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #90 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #88 in D5 (-614 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 35-6 A #692 Oak Hill (0-3) D6 R24, pick: L by 6 (39%), perf. rating 58
08/28 L 43-8 H #469 Piketon (2-1) D5 R19, pick: L by 35 (4%), perf. rating 30
09/04 L 49-6 H #456 South Point (3-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 21 (12%), perf. rating 22
09/11 A #589 Trimble (1-2) D7 R27, pick: L by 22 (10%)
09/18 H #608 Alexander (2-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 13 (21%)
09/25 A #664 River Valley (Bidwell) (1-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 7 (67%)
10/02 H #208 Nelsonville-York (3-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 49 (1%)
10/09 A #288 Athens (2-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 46 (1%)
10/16 A #474 Meigs (2-1) D5 R19, pick: L by 34 (1%)
10/23 H #520 Vinton County (2-1) D5 R19, pick: L by 29 (3%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
1.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 3.90 ( 1.45-15.05) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Lose: 1.60 ( 0.40-14.50) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 5W: 7.60 ( 6.40-10.90) 25% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
( 6%) 4W: 5.40 ( 3.65- 9.40) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(21%) 3W: 3.30 ( 2.30- 7.95) out, proj. out
(44%) 2W: 1.65 ( 1.25- 5.40) out, proj. out
(28%) 1W: 0.40 ( 0.40- 1.70) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWLLLW: 7.42 ( 6.40- 9.25) 16% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wheelersburg (1-2) 29%
( 3%) WWWLLLL: 4.75 ( 3.65- 7.10) out
( 2%) LLWLLLW: 3.75 ( 2.85- 5.55) out
(12%) LWWLLLL: 3.30 ( 2.90- 4.75) out
( 4%) WLWLLLL: 3.05 ( 2.30- 4.85) out
( 3%) LWLLLLL: 2.05 ( 1.60- 3.95) out
(38%) LLWLLLL: 1.65 ( 1.25- 3.45) out
(28%) LLLLLLL: 0.40 ( 0.40- 1.70) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 41.7, #649, D5 #97), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (1-1, 55.2, #620, D5 #93), 8% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (1-0, 57.6, #617, D5 #92), 8% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 40.9, #662, D5 #99), 5% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Last season 34.5