Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions

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Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

#685 River Valley (Bidwell) Raiders (0-4) 29.8

Updated Sat 13-Sep-2025 10:57 PM
Week 4 complete

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Rankings
#105 of 106 in Division 5
#27 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #99 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #102 in D5 (-785 WP+)

Schedule and results
08/22 L 34-14 A #628 Berne Union (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 21 (17%), perf. rating 27
08/29 L 45-6 H #516 South Gallia (3-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 42 (2%), perf. rating 17
09/05 L 55-27 A #480 Symmes Valley (4-0) D7 R27, pick: L by 42 (1%), perf. rating 42
09/12 L 51-0 A #248 Nelsonville-York (4-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 49 (1%), perf. rating 55
09/19 H #577 Meigs (1-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 29 (3%)
09/26 A #653 Wellston (1-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/03 H #608 Alexander (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 25 (5%)
10/10 A #627 Vinton County (0-4) D4 R15, pick: L by 25 (5%)
10/17 H #250 Athens (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 49 (1%)
10/24 A #705 Fayetteville (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 24 (94%)

Regular season projections
1-9 record
0.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R19 playoffs

Playoff chances now
appears eliminated from contention

Depending on the next game
Win: 2.65 ( 0.95- 9.00) out, proj. out
Lose: 0.35 ( 0.00- 8.85) out, proj. out

Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 3W: 3.00 ( 1.80- 7.75) out, proj. out
(21%) 2W: 1.60 ( 0.85- 6.15) out, proj. out
(66%) 1W: 0.35 ( 0.35- 4.95) out, proj. out
( 7%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out

Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWWLLW: 3.35 ( 2.90- 5.60) out
( 2%) LWLWLW: 2.25 ( 2.20- 4.70) out
( 1%) WLLLLW: 2.15 ( 1.30- 3.50) out
( 4%) LLWLLW: 2.00 ( 1.55- 4.20) out
( 4%) LLLWLW: 1.30 ( 0.85- 2.75) out
(10%) LWLLLW: 1.25 ( 1.25- 3.40) out
(65%) LLLLLW: 0.35 ( 0.35- 1.60) out
( 7%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out

Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 29.8, #685, D5 #105), appears eliminated from contention, proj. out at 1-9
Week 3 (0-3, 22.3, #691, D5 #105), appears eliminated from contention, proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (0-2, 15.9, #700, D5 #105), appears eliminated from contention, proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (0-1, 16.9, #702, D5 #106), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 0 (0-0, 19.3, #696, D5 #106), 1% (must have at least 6-4 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Last season 18.9