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Region 19 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#86 of 106 in Division 5
#21 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #97 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #100 in D5 (-708 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/23 L 23-19 H #523 Eastern (Reedsville) (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 23 (15%), perf. rating 69
08/29 L 56-42 H #480 Symmes Valley (4-0) D7 R27, pick: W by 5 (60%), perf. rating 59
09/05 L 56-21 A #490 Liberty Union (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 7 (35%), perf. rating 31
09/12 W 36-6 H #627 Vinton County (0-4) D4 R15, pick: L by 14 (20%), perf. rating 98
09/19 A #685 River Valley (Bidwell) (0-4) D5 R19, pick: W by 29 (97%)
09/26 H #248 Nelsonville-York (4-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 36 (1%)
10/03 A #250 Athens (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 37 (1%)
10/10 A #598 Minford (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 3 (58%)
10/17 A #653 Wellston (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 20 (91%)
10/24 H #608 Alexander (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 9 (72%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
6.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.50 ( 1.40-17.10) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Lose: 3.90 ( 0.50-11.10) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 6W: 11.95 (10.80-13.30) 53% in, proj. #12 (#9-out)
(40%) 5W: 7.50 ( 7.05-11.65) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(36%) 4W: 6.10 ( 4.50- 8.95) out, proj. out
(17%) 3W: 3.85 ( 2.70- 7.60) out, proj. out
( 5%) 2W: 2.20 ( 1.40- 5.45) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(39%) WLLWWW: 7.50 ( 7.05- 9.85) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 38%
(21%) WLLLWW: 6.15 ( 5.75- 8.10) out
( 3%) WLLWLW: 6.05 ( 4.80- 7.45) out
(11%) WLLWWL: 5.25 ( 4.50- 7.15) out
( 3%) WLLLLW: 4.75 ( 3.50- 5.80) out
(12%) WLLLWL: 3.60 ( 3.20- 5.55) out
( 2%) WLLWLL: 3.50 ( 2.70- 5.40) out
( 4%) WLLLLL: 2.20 ( 1.40- 4.00) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 66.2, #577, D5 #86), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (0-3, 54.2, #624, D5 #95), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 63.9, #591, D5 #89), 2% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 72.2, #550, D5 #81), 19% (bubble if 7-3), 5% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 66.4, #576, D5 #83), 17% (bubble if 7-3), 6% home (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 68.4