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Rankings
#25 of 106 in Division 5
#6 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #93 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #24 in D5 (+90 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 34-8 A #478 Trimble (3-1) D7 R27, pick: W by 16 (77%), perf. rating 123
08/29 W 46-7 A #488 Logan (0-4) D2 R7, pick: W by 22 (87%), perf. rating 141
09/05 W 34-6 H #402 Dawson-Bryant (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 20 (87%), perf. rating 135
09/12 W 51-0 H #685 River Valley (Bidwell) (0-4) D5 R19, pick: W by 49 (99%), perf. rating 90
09/19 H #364 Waterford (3-1) D7 R27, pick: W by 17 (86%)
09/26 A #577 Meigs (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/03 H #653 Wellston (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 47 (99%)
10/10 A #608 Alexander (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 39 (99%)
10/17 H #627 Vinton County (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 43 (99%)
10/24 A #250 Athens (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 2 (44%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
19.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#5 seed in R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 98% home, 58% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 22.20 (13.70-27.60) 100% in, 99% home, 65% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#10), bye 65%
Lose: 16.65 (11.55-23.50) 99% in, 90% home, 18% bye, proj. #6 (#2-out), bye 18%
Based on eventual number of wins
(42%) 10W: 24.60 (21.50-27.60) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(45%) 9W: 19.80 (16.65-24.80) 100% in, 99% home, 36% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 36%
(12%) 8W: 16.55 (13.50-21.65) 100% in, 92% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Valley (4-0) 14%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(42%) WWWWWW: 24.60 (21.50-27.60) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 4%) LWWWWW: 21.20 (18.70-23.50) 100% home, 64% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 64%
(40%) WWWWWL: 19.75 (16.65-22.55) 100% in, 99% home, 32% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 32%
(10%) LWWWWL: 16.25 (13.50-19.30) 100% in, 91% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Valley (4-0) 15%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 115.8, #248, D5 #25), likely in, 98% home, 58% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 9-1
Week 3 (3-0, 118.2, #232, D5 #22), likely in, 96% home (maybe if 7-3), 56% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 113.1, #271, D5 #27), 95% (bubble if 7-3), 75% home (maybe if 8-2), 33% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 104.3, #328, D5 #35), 85% (bubble if 6-4), 60% home (maybe if 8-2), 27% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 97.7, #376, D5 #46), 69% (bubble if 6-4), 49% home (maybe if 7-3), 24% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 7-3
Last season 97.8