Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions

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Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

#381 Lutheran East Falcons (1-3) 98.7

Updated Sat 13-Sep-2025 10:57 PM
Week 4 complete

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Rankings
#75 of 107 in Division 3
#23 of 27 in Region 9
Strength of schedule #83 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #87 in D3 (-502 WP+)

Lists this team is on
Playoff quirks

Schedule and results
08/22 W 34-0 H #475 John Hay (2-2) D2 R5, pick: W by 8 (64%), perf. rating 131
08/29 L 54-20 A #160 Norton (3-0) D4 R13, pick: L by 15 (23%), perf. rating 81
09/05 L 23-20 A #241 Ridgewood (4-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 22 (11%), perf. rating 114
09/12 L 31-0 A #232 North (Eastlake) (3-1) D2 R5, pick: L by 4 (41%), perf. rating 74
09/19 H #545 Warrensville Heights (1-3) D4 R13, pick: W by 26 (95%)
09/26 H #645 East Technical (1-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 38 (99%)
10/03 A #91 Benedictine (4-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 35 (1%)
10/11 A #403 Cleveland Central Cath. (3-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/17 A #498 Lucas (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 17 (87%)
10/24 H #492 John F Kennedy (Warren) (0-4) D7 R25, pick: W by 20 (91%)

Regular season projections
5-5 record
10.56 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R9 playoffs

Playoff chances now
3% (likely needs 7-3), home game unlikely

Depending on the next game
Win: 11.53 ( 3.75-19.78) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Alliance (3-1) 20%
Lose: 8.54 ( 3.25-15.81) out, proj. out

Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 17.25 (15.03-19.78) 88% in, 8% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Alliance (3-1) 24%
(42%) 6W: 13.21 (10.45-16.83) 4% in, proj. out (#9-out), Alliance (3-1) 17%
(37%) 5W: 10.56 ( 7.86-15.81) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(15%) 4W: 8.68 ( 5.62-12.51) out, proj. out
( 5%) 3W: 7.06 ( 4.56- 9.35) out, proj. out

Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWW: 17.25 (15.03-19.78) 88% in, 8% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Alliance (3-1) 24%
(41%) WWLWWW: 13.21 (10.45-16.83) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out), Alliance (3-1) 16%
( 3%) WWLWWL: 11.53 ( 9.49-14.69) out
( 4%) WWLWLW: 11.27 ( 8.83-15.66) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Geneva (3-1) 100%
(28%) WWLLWW: 10.21 ( 7.86-13.98) out
( 5%) WWLLWL: 8.79 ( 6.69-11.08) out
( 7%) WWLLLW: 8.28 ( 5.62-10.88) out
( 3%) WWLLLL: 6.96 ( 5.32- 9.20) out

Most likely first-round opponents
Alliance (3-1) 20%
Gilmour Academy (1-3) 11%
Villa Angela-St Joseph (2-1) 10%
Madison (2-2) 9%
Maple Heights (3-1) 8%

Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 98.7, #381, D3 #75), 3% (likely needs 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (1-2, 106.4, #323, D3 #64), 19% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 99.8, #366, D3 #71), 17% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 107.7, #306, D3 #63), 40% (bubble if 7-3), 18% home (maybe if 8-2), 6% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 94.3, #410, D3 #77), 24% (bubble if 7-3), 9% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 101.2