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Rankings
#77 of 101 in Division 4
#19 of 24 in Region 13
Strength of schedule #92 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #81 in D4 (-480 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 14-7 H #514 Lakeside (1-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 23 (85%), perf. rating 65
08/29 L 42-14 H Our Lady of Mt. Carmel MD (2-0) D7
09/05 W 33-12 H #570 Firestone (0-3) D2 R5, pick: W by 10 (71%), perf. rating 96
09/12 A #243 Buchtel (1-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 29 (4%)
09/18 A #468 Warrensville Heights (2-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 2 (44%)
09/25 A #359 John F Kennedy (Warren) (1-2) D6 R21, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/02 A #505 Shaw (1-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 3 (58%)
10/09 H #344 Cleveland Central Cath. (2-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 18 (12%)
10/16 A #274 Brush (1-2) D2 R5, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/23 A #593 Richmond Heights (2-1) D6 R21, pick: W by 20 (91%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
5.02 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R13 playoffs
Playoff chances now
14% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 11.33 ( 4.16-23.18) 63% in, 17% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#3-out), Northwest (Canal Fult.) (3-0) 16%
Lose: 5.17 ( 0.60-19.16) 12% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), East (Akron) (2-1) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 16.51 (14.06-19.82) 100% in, 47% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), East (Akron) (2-1) 20%
( 5%) 6W: 13.25 (10.25-17.03) 95% in, 7% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), East (Akron) (2-1) 19%
(11%) 5W: 10.21 ( 7.25-14.23) 52% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), West Geauga (3-0) 17%
(22%) 4W: 7.26 ( 5.17-11.80) 5% in, proj. out (#9-out), West Geauga (3-0) 17%
(28%) 3W: 5.02 ( 3.23- 8.89) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(23%) 2W: 2.99 ( 1.56- 6.20) out, proj. out
( 8%) 1W: 1.21 ( 0.60- 3.56) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWWWWWW: 16.41 (14.37-19.16) 100% in, 44% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), East (Akron) (2-1) 21%
( 4%) LWLWWLW: 10.28 ( 8.52-13.01) 60% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), West Geauga (3-0) 18%
( 3%) LWWWLLW: 9.39 ( 7.25-12.55) 31% in, proj. out (#10-out), West Geauga (3-0) 18%
(12%) LWLWLLW: 6.95 ( 5.37-10.52) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), West Geauga (3-0) 22%
( 7%) LWLLLLW: 5.17 ( 4.00- 7.62) out
(14%) LLLWLLW: 4.51 ( 3.29- 7.83) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Northwest (Canal Fult.) (3-0) 100%
(17%) LLLLLLW: 2.89 ( 1.92- 5.80) out
( 8%) LLLLLLL: 1.21 ( 0.60- 3.56) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 83.8, #470, D4 #77), 14% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 79.0, #502, D4 #77), 17% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 80.3, #492, D4 #77), 28% (bubble if 5-5), 7% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 91.9, #429, D4 #66), 57% (bubble if 6-4), 25% home (maybe if 8-2), 3% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #11 at 6-4
Last season 89.5