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Rankings
#51 of 72 in Division 1
#16 of 18 in Region 2
Strength of schedule #70 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #60 in D1 (-398 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 49-0 H #564 Centennial (2-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 43 (98%), perf. rating 130
08/29 L 45-41 A #198 Grove City (2-2) D1 R3, pick: L by 20 (16%), perf. rating 119
09/05 W 33-0 H #504 Central Crossing (0-4) D1 R3, pick: W by 45 (99%), perf. rating 126
09/12 L 48-38 A #163 Worthington Kilbourne (3-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 7 (66%), perf. rating 116
09/19 H DeWitt MI (3-0) D3
09/26 A #258 Dublin Scioto (3-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/03 A #127 Westerville North (1-3) D1 R3, pick: L by 15 (17%)
10/10 H #144 Westerville South (3-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 8 (30%)
10/17 A #293 Delaware Hayes (2-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 11 (77%)
10/24 H #37 Big Walnut (3-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 28 (3%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
9.57 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R2 playoffs
Playoff chances now
56% (bubble if 4-6), 17% home (likely needs 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.45 ( 6.24-28.33) 81% in, 34% home, 8% bye, proj. #10 (#1-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 9%
Lose: 9.02 ( 2.31-23.39) 42% in, 9% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#1-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 7W: 21.02 (18.04-25.26) 100% in, 99% home, 65% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 65%
(13%) 6W: 16.63 (13.60-20.92) 100% in, 81% home, 5% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 11%
(25%) 5W: 12.90 ( 9.41-17.90) 94% in, 13% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Dublin Jerome (3-1) 11%
(30%) 4W: 9.57 ( 6.04-13.81) 47% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Findlay (3-1) 12%
(21%) 3W: 6.45 ( 4.07- 9.88) 6% in, proj. out (#10-out), Springboro (2-2) 15%
( 7%) 2W: 3.52 ( 2.31- 5.90) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWL: 20.46 (18.04-22.99) 100% in, 99% home, 57% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 57%
( 5%) WWLWWL: 17.14 (14.31-20.72) 100% in, 86% home, 5% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 13%
( 7%) WWLLWL: 13.51 (10.68-15.98) 97% in, 16% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Dublin Jerome (3-1) 12%
( 8%) LWLWWL: 12.65 (10.37-15.63) 93% in, 8% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 11%
(14%) LWLLWL: 9.07 ( 7.25-12.20) 35% in, proj. out (#10-out), Findlay (3-1) 13%
( 6%) LWLLLL: 6.70 ( 5.49- 9.88) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out), Springboro (2-2) 22%
( 9%) LLLLWL: 5.84 ( 4.07- 7.71) 2% in, proj. out (#12-out), Findlay (3-1) 18%
( 7%) LLLLLL: 3.52 ( 2.31- 5.90) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 122.9, #200, D1 #51), 56% (bubble if 4-6), 17% home (likely needs 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (2-1, 131.2, #149, D1 #44), 88% (bubble if 4-6), 57% home (maybe if 6-4), 23% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 137.3, #112, D1 #37), 94% (bubble if 3-7), 76% home (maybe if 5-5), 42% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 130.2, #151, D1 #46), 90% (bubble if 3-7), 63% home (maybe if 6-4), 28% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 130.4, #150, D1 #46), 84% (bubble if 4-6), 53% home (maybe if 6-4), 20% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Last season 142.8