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Rankings
#43 of 104 in Division 2
#12 of 27 in Region 7
Strength of schedule #43 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #35 in D2 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 31-23 H #233 Watkins Memorial (1-3) D2 R7, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 128
08/29 W 42-7 A #264 Thomas Worthington (1-3) D1 R3, pick: W by 21 (85%), perf. rating 168
09/05 L 48-28 H #54 Canal Winchester (4-0) D2 R7, pick: L by 14 (22%), perf. rating 118
09/12 W 48-38 H #200 Westland (2-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 7 (34%), perf. rating 136
09/19 A #258 Dublin Scioto (3-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 13 (79%)
09/26 A #293 Delaware Hayes (2-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 17 (86%)
10/03 H #37 Big Walnut (3-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/10 A #427 KIPP Columbus (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 30 (98%)
10/17 A #127 Westerville North (1-3) D1 R3, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/24 H #144 Westerville South (3-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 2 (45%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
18.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#8 seed in R7 playoffs
Playoff chances now
70% (bubble if 6-4), 37% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 17.65 ( 8.60-30.75) 81% in, 45% home, 9% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), bye 11%
Lose: 11.70 ( 4.85-24.45) 24% in, 5% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Northland (2-2) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 9W: 27.40 (24.00-30.75) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
(16%) 8W: 22.15 (19.05-27.20) 100% in, 99% home, 25% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 25%
(32%) 7W: 18.20 (14.75-23.35) 99% in, 53% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Walnut Ridge (1-3) 12%
(30%) 6W: 14.75 (11.50-22.75) 60% in, 5% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#4-out), Westerville South (3-1) 14%
(15%) 5W: 11.70 ( 7.75-17.15) 11% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Ashland (4-0) 13%
( 4%) 4W: 9.15 ( 5.70-13.50) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWWW: 27.40 (24.00-30.75) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
(13%) WWLWWW: 21.95 (19.05-25.80) 100% in, 98% home, 20% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 20%
(19%) WWLWLW: 18.30 (15.20-23.25) 99% in, 61% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Walnut Ridge (1-3) 14%
( 9%) WWLWWL: 17.85 (14.75-21.65) 98% in, 32% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Northland (2-2) 13%
(21%) WWLWLL: 14.65 (11.50-19.05) 58% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Westerville South (3-1) 17%
( 5%) WLLWLL: 12.25 ( 9.10-16.80) 17% in, proj. out (#9-out), Ashland (4-0) 16%
( 7%) LWLWLL: 10.90 ( 7.75-16.30) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out), Ashland (4-0) 22%
( 3%) LLLWLL: 8.75 ( 5.70-12.15) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 129.2, #163, D2 #43), 70% (bubble if 6-4), 37% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 121.8, #202, D2 #49), 40% (bubble if 6-4), 16% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (2-0, 126.0, #176, D2 #42), 56% (bubble if 5-5), 34% home (maybe if 7-3), 15% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 114.4, #257, D2 #57), 44% (bubble if 5-5), 22% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 110.5, #269, D2 #58), 31% (bubble if 5-5), 17% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 118.2