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Rankings
#55 of 80 in Division 1
#14 of 20 in Region 3
Strength of schedule #56 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #60 in D1 (-253 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 21-7 A #238 Buckeye Valley (2-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 7 (37%), perf. rating 141
08/28 W 28-13 H #266 Lancaster (0-3) D1 R3, pick: W by 11 (71%), perf. rating 134
09/04 L 20-16 A #278 Thomas Worthington (2-1) D1 R3, pick: W by 25 (92%), perf. rating 108
09/11 A #16 Big Walnut (3-0) D2 R7, pick: L by 38 (1%)
09/18 H #121 Westerville North (2-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 9 (28%)
09/25 A #41 Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) D1 R3, pick: L by 30 (3%)
10/02 H #226 Westerville South (1-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/09 H #361 Dublin Scioto (1-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/16 A #138 Westland (2-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/23 H #43 Villa Angela-St Joseph (1-2) D2 R5, pick: L by 27 (4%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
10.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R3 playoffs
Playoff chances now
47% (bubble if 4-6), 12% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 20.60 (12.05-35.20) 98% in, 67% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), St Charles (3-0) 19%
Lose: 11.10 ( 2.70-30.20) 47% in, 11% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), St Charles (3-0) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 8W: 27.00 (24.10-32.50) 100% home, 46% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#7), bye 46%
( 4%) 7W: 22.10 (17.45-26.90) 100% in, 95% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), St Charles (3-0) 14%
(12%) 6W: 17.85 (13.20-25.05) 99% in, 52% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), St Charles (3-0) 19%
(23%) 5W: 14.00 ( 8.80-19.45) 87% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Olentangy Orange (2-1) 12%
(31%) 4W: 10.60 ( 5.85-16.90) 31% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) 20%
(24%) 3W: 8.10 ( 3.95-13.65) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out), Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) 27%
( 5%) 2W: 6.65 ( 2.70- 9.80) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWWWWWW: 26.95 (24.40-30.20) 100% home, 49% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#7), bye 49%
( 8%) LWLWWWL: 17.75 (14.10-22.55) 99% in, 52% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), St Charles (3-0) 20%
(10%) LLLWWWL: 14.12 ( 9.65-18.70) 83% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) 14%
( 9%) LWLWWLL: 13.70 ( 9.75-18.20) 92% in, 7% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Pickerington Central (0-3) 14%
( 4%) LLLLWWL: 11.45 ( 7.00-15.55) 30% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) 16%
(21%) LLLWWLL: 10.15 ( 5.85-14.80) 25% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) 22%
(19%) LLLLWLL: 8.00 ( 3.95-12.30) 3% in, proj. out (#10-out), Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) 30%
( 5%) LLLLLLL: 6.65 ( 2.70- 9.80) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Groveport Madison (2-1) 25%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 123.7, #188, D1 #55), 47% (bubble if 4-6), 12% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (2-0, 132.3, #135, D1 #44), 79% (bubble if 4-6), 42% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 123.9, #186, D1 #54), 47% (bubble if 5-5), 21% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 114.4, #249, D1 #64), 35% (bubble if 4-6), 16% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 112.2