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Rankings
#40 of 72 in Division 1
#9 of 18 in Region 3
Strength of schedule #34 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #29 in D1 (+10 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 24-0 H #183 Westerville Central (2-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 24 (86%), perf. rating 159
08/29 L 42-0 A #10 Olentangy Orange (4-0) D1 R3, pick: L by 23 (12%), perf. rating 117
09/05 L 38-0 H #4 Bishop Watterson (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 35 (3%), perf. rating 127
09/12 L 28-0 A #13 St Xavier (4-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 35 (2%), perf. rating 135
09/19 H #293 Delaware Hayes (2-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 26 (95%)
09/26 A #144 Westerville South (3-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/03 H #200 Westland (2-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 15 (83%)
10/10 A #37 Big Walnut (3-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/17 H #163 Worthington Kilbourne (3-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/24 A #258 Dublin Scioto (3-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 19 (89%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
16.18 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#7 seed in R3 playoffs
Playoff chances now
92% (bubble if 3-7), 67% home (maybe if 4-6), 2% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.58 ( 3.62-29.05) 94% in, 69% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), Westerville Central (2-2) 15%
Lose: 9.93 ( 2.52-24.21) 58% in, 24% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 7W: 25.81 (24.05-29.05) 100% home, 41% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#7), bye 41%
(31%) 6W: 20.47 (18.60-24.21) 100% in, 99% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Westerville Central (2-2) 18%
(30%) 5W: 16.18 (14.26-21.03) 100% in, 85% home, proj. #7 (#5-#11), Grove City (2-2) 16%
(20%) 4W: 12.32 ( 9.92-16.34) 99% in, 25% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 19%
(10%) 3W: 8.62 ( 6.14-12.91) 65% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 25%
( 4%) 2W: 5.49 ( 3.62- 8.62) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) WWWWWW: 25.81 (24.05-29.05) 100% home, 41% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#7), bye 41%
(28%) WWWLWW: 20.47 (18.60-23.04) 100% in, 99% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#9), Westerville Central (2-2) 18%
(16%) WLWLWW: 16.18 (14.36-19.77) 100% in, 84% home, proj. #7 (#5-#11), Westerville Central (2-2) 16%
( 7%) WWWLLW: 15.62 (14.26-18.76) 100% in, 82% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Grove City (2-2) 16%
( 4%) WLLLWW: 13.01 (11.09-14.92) 100% in, 38% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Westerville Central (2-2) 17%
( 8%) WLWLLW: 11.84 ( 9.97-14.92) 99% in, 18% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 22%
( 4%) WLLLLW: 8.67 ( 6.80-11.24) 63% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 24%
( 3%) WLLLLL: 4.94 ( 3.62- 7.46) 2% in, proj. out (#12-out), Olentangy (3-1) 50%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 136.0, #127, D1 #40), 92% (bubble if 3-7), 67% home (maybe if 4-6), 2% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 5-5
Week 3 (1-2, 133.9, #139, D1 #43), 90% (bubble if 3-7), 53% home (maybe if 5-5), 4% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 131.0, #149, D1 #45), 77% (bubble if 3-7), 31% home (maybe if 5-5), 3% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 140.5, #97, D1 #35), 89% (bubble if 3-7), 53% home (maybe if 5-5), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 137.7, #111, D1 #39), 69% (bubble if 4-6), 37% home (maybe if 6-4), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Last season 137.9