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Rankings
#78 of 100 in Division 2
#22 of 25 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #79 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #74 in D2 (-515 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 18-12 A #586 Clark Montessori (3-5) D4 R16, pick: W by 31 (92%), perf. rating 74
08/28 L 18-14 A #446 Northland (5-3) D2 R7, pick: L by 8 (34%), perf. rating 84
09/04 L 34-12 A #191 Goshen (8-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 28 (6%), perf. rating 94
09/11 L 32-14 H Lloyd Memorial KY (7-1) D3
09/19 L 46-18 H #189 Cinc. Hills Christian (7-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 28 (4%), perf. rating 81
09/25 L 44-6 H #293 Hughes (8-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 16 (15%), perf. rating 52
10/02 W 38-6 A #570 Western Hills (1-7) D1 R4, pick: W by 5 (63%), perf. rating 116
10/09 L 33-0 A #70 Withrow (5-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 41 (1%), perf. rating 98
10/16 A #455 Taft (1-7) D4 R16, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/22 H #633 Woodward (Cincy) (2-6) D4 R16, pick: W by 33 (99%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
5.49 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears eliminated from contention
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.85 ( 4.43- 7.60) out, proj. out
Lose: 5.49 ( 2.77- 6.40) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
(46%) 4W: 6.85 ( 5.99- 7.60) out, proj. out
(52%) 3W: 5.49 ( 4.43- 6.40) out, proj. out
( 1%) 2W: 3.78 ( 2.77- 4.13) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(46%) WW: 6.85 ( 5.99- 7.60) out
(52%) LW: 5.69 ( 4.83- 6.40) out
( 1%) LL: 3.78 ( 2.77- 4.13) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (2-5, 87.2, #448, D2 #79), unlikely to contend for playoffs, proj. out at 3-7
Week 6 (1-5, 77.8, #509, D2 #86), appears eliminated from contention, proj. out at 3-7
Week 5 (1-4, 85.2, #462, D2 #79), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 4 (1-3, 87.5, #451, D2 #79), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 90.0, #431, D2 #78), 7% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 85.7, #459, D2 #83), 7% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (1-0, 87.7, #441, D2 #81), 20% (bubble if 5-5), 5% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 96.9, #391, D2 #74), 30% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 93.9