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Rankings
#73 of 104 in Division 2
#17 of 23 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #87 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #32 in D2 (+10 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/23 W 40-0 H #618 Clark Montessori (1-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 35 (95%), perf. rating 115
08/30 W 38-0 A #563 Belmont (2-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 30 (93%), perf. rating 128
09/05 W 24-20 H #445 Reading (0-4) D4 R16, pick: W by 16 (81%), perf. rating 91
09/12 L 36-22 A Erlanger Lloyd Memorial KY (4-0) D4
09/19 A #203 Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 21 (9%)
09/26 A #646 Woodward (Cincy) (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 38 (99%)
10/04 H #464 Western Hills (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 21 (91%)
10/10 A #49 Withrow (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 37 (1%)
10/17 H #46 Taft (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 37 (1%)
10/25 H #377 Hughes (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 5 (63%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
12.13 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#10 seed in R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
59% (likely needs 6-4), 4% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.08 ( 8.82-23.74) 97% in, 23% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 25%
Lose: 11.11 ( 4.51-23.48) 55% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 23%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 8%) 7W: 15.84 (12.47-20.28) 99% in, 35% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 25%
(50%) 6W: 12.13 ( 9.07-16.97) 88% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 24%
(34%) 5W: 8.87 ( 5.76-15.10) 19% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Xenia (3-1) 29%
( 7%) 4W: 7.00 ( 4.60-11.28) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 7%) WWWLLW: 15.48 (12.47-18.85) 99% in, 27% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 26%
(47%) LWWLLW: 12.13 ( 9.07-15.49) 88% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 24%
( 2%) WWWLLL: 12.03 ( 9.12-15.34) 85% in, proj. #11 (#9-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 25%
( 5%) LWLLLW: 9.95 ( 7.70-13.11) 38% in, proj. out (#9-out), Xenia (3-1) 26%
(29%) LWWLLL: 8.77 ( 5.76-12.65) 15% in, proj. out (#9-out), Xenia (3-1) 31%
( 6%) LWLLLL: 7.00 ( 4.60- 9.45) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Xenia (3-1) 75%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 102.2, #356, D2 #73), 59% (likely needs 6-4), 4% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 3 (3-0, 105.0, #340, D2 #73), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 26% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 106.8, #316, D2 #71), 70% (bubble if 5-5), 19% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 102.1, #348, D2 #73), 55% (bubble if 6-4), 15% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 99.4, #360, D2 #75), 55% (bubble if 5-5), 20% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 6-4
Last season 107.8